We will start off the NL East preview with the starting rotation. Pitchers are much harder to project than hitters because they are struck by injuries far more often and decline at a faster pace. I’ll rank each position 1-5 with a summary of what my thinking was. If you are looking for my evaluations of each Phillies players, please check out my 4-part Phillies preview here.
#1 Starter
- Johan Santana, Mets
- Cole Hamels, Phillies
- Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
- Derek Lowe, Braves
- John Lannan, Nationals
I can’t justify putting Hamels ahead of Santana, World Series MVP or not. The toughest decision I made here was Ricky Nolasco over Derek Lowe. Lowe is obviously the bigger name, but I think Nolasco is poised to break out this year. He was 2nd in the NL in WHIP (1.10) and K/BB ratio (4.43) while besting Lowe in K/9 and H/9 rates. Add to this that he’s on the upswing of his career while Lowe is close to the downswing, and Nolasco beats him out.
#2 Starter
- Javier Vazquez, Braves
- Brett Myers, Phillies
- Mike Pelfrey, Mets
- Josh Johnson, Marlins
- Scott Olsen, Nationals
So how can I put a guy who had a 4.67 ERA last season as the best 2nd starter? I’ve got 2 reasons. The first is that each of the other 4 pitchers are wild cards. Myers looked like Cy Young (and Babe Ruth) at times last season, and also was so bad at points he got sent to the Minors. I have very little trust in him despite his performance down the stretch. Pelfrey had a great season, but his high H/9 and low K/9 rates scream a regression (a la Kyle Kendrick last season). He’s better than Kendrick, but there is little track record for success with his metrics. Josh Johnson is only 25 and probably has the best stuff on this list, but he’s pitched only 103 innings since 2006 due to injuries. And finally, as we all know, Scott Olsen is a crazy person. The 2nd reason that Vazquez is at the top is his K/9 rate infers that his stuff hasn’t regressed and he is moving from the AL to the NL and from one of the biggest hitters parks to one of the biggest pitchers parks. His ERA could drop a whole point with those 2 factors. He’s averaged 216 IP over the last 9 seasons, and is as reliable as they come, even if he isn’t a “big-game” pitcher.
#3 Starter
- Joe Blanton, Phillies
- Chris Volstad, Marlins
- Oliver Perez, Mets
- Jair Jurrjens, Braves
- Daniel Cabrera, Nationals
It was really tough to rank the top-4 here. Jurrjens comes in at #4 after a stellar rookie season where he put up a 3.68 ERA in 188 IP finishing 3rd in Rookie of the Year ballot. He’s #4 because he is not overpowering and hitter really started figuring him out at the end of the year (5.14 ERA from July 31st on). I have Oliver Perez 3rd because he seemed to be a prime candidate for someone who got their contract and will now mail it in, especially when he is so quirky and wild to begin with. Up until his most recent start this spring, the Mets hadn’t been happy with his performance (including a 9.45 ERA in the WBC) and I don’t think he will improve upon his 4.22 ERA and high 1.40 WHIP from last year. On potential, Volstad is #1 on this list and he showed it with his 2.88 ERA in 84.1 IP last season. I’ve read scouts raving about his potential, but I can’t put him at #1 without more experience. Blanton sported a 6-0 record with a 4.00 ERA in the regular season and playoffs for the Phillies last year. He’s been so sharp this spring (2.45 ERA, 2 BB) that he was nearly given the opening day nod after Hamels got hurt.
#4 Starter
- Kenshin Kawakami, Braves
- John Maine, Mets
- Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
- Jamie Moyer, Phillies
- Shairon Martis, Nationals
Obviously Moyer had the best year of any of these guys last year, but I think he’s going to be closer to his 5.01 ERA in 2007 than his 3.71 ERA of last season. Sanchez looked to be a star in the making when he posted a 2.83 ERA in 2006, but has been injury riddled the last 2 seasons. He appears to be healthy but who knows how his stuff is now. John Maine was hurt last year, but I think he has a good chance of regaining his 2006-07 form. Kawakami is intriguing to me. He’s 33, but he’s been very good over in Japan (3.22 career ERA and a 2.30 ERA last year). I think that he will make an impact similar to what Hiroki Kuroda (3.69 career ERA in Japan) did with the Dodgers last year. I wanted the Phillies to sign both of these pitchers.
#5 Starter
- Andrew Miller, Marlins
- Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals
- Chan Ho Park, Phillies
- Tom Glavine, Braves
- Livan Hernandez, Mets
I predict both Hernandez and Glavine will be out of their rotations by June, either from injury or poor performance. I put Glavine over Livan because he relies less on velocity. Park has been fantastic in the spring, and I really think he is going to surprise a bunch of people this year, but I couldn’t get too bias about the situation. Both Zimmerman and Miller are the top pitching prospects in their respective systems. Our top pitching prospect, Carlos Carrasco, would rank behind both. It’s hard to tell how quickly (if ever) they will reach their potential, but their upside far exceeds the other 5th starters.
#6 Starter
- Tommy Hanson, Braves
- J.A. Happ, Phillies
- Jon Niese, Mets
- Julian Tavarez, Nationals
- Rick VandenHurk, Marlins
I added a 6th starter here because no team ever makes it through the season with the same 5 starters and having depth is key to a good regular season. Tommy Hanson is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and Braves’ fans are anxiously awaiting the right-handed fireballers arrival. We know what J.A. Happ is, and Jon Niese is pretty much J.A. Happ without the strikeouts. Tavarez has a rubber arm and could probably still be an effective spot starter. VandenHurk is young, but a 6.96 career ERA isn’t getting him any higher than #5.
Overview
It’s really tough to pick a “best” rotation out of this division as you could really make a case for any team except the Nationals. If you take these rankings and do a very unscientific straight average and include the 6th starter, you come out with this…
- Phillies, 2.3
- Braves, 2.5
- Mets, 2.8
- Marlins, 3.0
- Nationals, 4.3
If you do a weighted average and give more weight to the better starters (25% for #1 starter, 20% for #2, 15% for 3-5, 10% for 6), you come out with this…
- Phillies, 2.30
- Braves, 2.65 (tie)
- Mets, 2.65 (tie)
- Marlins, 2.95
- Nationals, 4.45
The final way would be to forget about what slot their team has them in and rank them all from 1-30…
- Johan Santana, Mets
- Cole Hamels, Phillies
- Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
- Derek Lowe, Braves
- Javier Vazquez, Braves
- Brett Myers, Phillies
- John Lannan, Nationals
- Mike Pelfrey, Mets
- Josh Johnson, Marlins
- Joe Blanton, Phillies
- Chris Volstad, Marlins
- Oliver Perez, Mets
- Kenshin Kawakami, Braves
- Scott Olsen, Nationals
- Jair Jurjjens, Braves
- John Maine, Mets
- Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
- Jamie Moyer, Phillies
- Andrew Miller, Marlins
- Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals
- Chan Ho Park, Phillies
- Tommy Hanson, Braves
- J.A. Happ, Phillies
- Daniel Cabrera, Nationals
- Jon Niese, Mets
- Shairon Martis, Nationals
- Tom Glavine, Braves
- Livan Hernandez, Mets
- Julian Tavarez, Nationals
- Rick VandenHurk, Marlins
And then un-scientifically average it out again…
- Phillies, 13.3
- Braves, 14.3
- Marlins, 14.8
- Mets, 15
- Nationals, 20
No matter which way you do it, the Phillies are at the top. Obviously if Hamels goes down with an injury that changes everything, but we have to assume he won’t. I’m not sure why I feel the Phillies don’t have a great rotation, considering it was our pitching, not our hitting, that won us the championship last year, but I can’t say I would trade it for anyone elses for just 2009.
The Braves have the 2nd best, and probably the most reliable rotation with their top 2 guys pitching around 200 IP for about the last decade without serious injury. They also have some upside in the bottom half of their rotation.
Between the Mets and Marlins, I have to give the Mets the edge, despite the questions at the bottom of the rotation, because they have Johan Santana, the best pitcher of the decade. The Marlins have the most upside of any of these rotations, and maybe they come together like the Rays kids did last year, but more often than not, some succeed and some flame out.
As for the Nats…best of luck…
NL East Rotation Rankings
- Phillies (Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Park, Happ)
- Braves (Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Kawakami, Glavine, Hanson)
- Mets (Santana, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine, Hernandez, Niese)
- Marlins (Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad, Sanchez, Miller, VandenHurk)
- Nationals (Lanaan, Olsen, Cabrera, Martis, Zimmerman, Tavarez)
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Good analysis Pete, but I am confused about why you John Maine as a #4. I would think he is the #2 guy there.
I’ve seen both listed as the #2 in different places. I went by Mets.com in the end. And, Pelfrey is better anyway.
I listen to 660am a lot, too much maybe, but according to Mike Francesca on the FAN Pelfrey is #2, Perez and Maine are interchangeable at 3 and 4. Mike thinks Livan is the best #5 in the league based on you know what you are getting and he loves the fact that Livan is an innings eater and won’t tax the bull-pen every 5th start.
Mike also said Johan was probably the best pitcher in baseball right now, so he’d agree with your #1 pitcher rank. Mike thinks the Mets problems are with #2, #3 and #4 all three are very shaky.
MD-
Pete – As opposed to the sure things that are Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer and Chan Ho Park?! You know I have nothing but love for you, but about the only thing you got right on here is that Santana is better then Hamels. Pelfrey isn’t getting sent down, as Myers did. You can compare him to Kyle Kendrick all you want, but that’s the “Hey I hope we repeat” talking, not the objective baseball fan. Pelfrey is a hard throwing young pitcher…lots of upside. Perez is a young, hard throwing lefthander with ace stuff under the wing of Johan Santana. The “he got his contract, he’s gonna mail it in, he was shaky in the WBC” stuff is, to me, suspect at best. While I don’t ever think Ollie will be dependable enough to be the alpha dog on a staff, on this one he doesnt have to be. He will at the very worst be what he was the last two years – a guy who is a lights-out killer in big games (especially against the Phils, Yanks and Braves)…and the guy who will give up 7 runs in 2 innings during a day game against Pittsburgh’s fifth starter who just got called up. At worst he will be inconsistent. If he puts it together, he could win the Cy Young. Maine is a health question – he has the best stuff of any of the three, but the question is can he stay healthy. Similiar to the questions of will Myers totally lose it as he did just last year, will Blanton eat his way out of the league and/or pitch like the guy Oakland ran out of town on an extra-wide rail, will Moyer pitch like an old man. Livan is terrible, and is still better then Park. As a fifth starter he will pitch 7 innings and give up between 4-6 runs a game. Park will give up the same runs and do it in 4 less innings. The staffs are very comparable. An ace, three questions (where at least the Mets questions are all young upside guys, as compared to Crazy, Fat and Old), a question mark at the 5th spot and a kid waiting in the wings.
Ian -
I recall you being similarly appalled at my assessment of the Mets last year as well….hmmm….
just kidding, its good to have both sides….here are some counter points…
Pete -
I do not put a great deal of merit into spring training stats, so while Park might have gaudy numbers to this point, my reasoning would be its probably because batters are like, “wow that dude looks like Chan Ho Park, the dude that once threw a karate kick during a brawl in 1999″ and by the time they are done laughing to themselves at the fact that ANY team would give him a uniform they happen to be out. I read or heard somewhere, and for the life of me I can’t remember where, maybe ESPN Fantasy Baseball Podcast, that the Park situation was spring hitters making him look good in hopes the Phils were dumb enough to give him a slot every fifth day so they could just tee off. And they were only half joking. I dont think either Park or Hernandez is gonna be any good, Hernandez will give you innings at the very least and keep the slot warm until Tim Redding (a better pitcher then either) or Niese is ready to take it. I would agree with you Happ is better then Niese to this point, as well. As to your final point, the Phils won the division by, what, 3 games? Against a team who lost their closer and missed the playoffs by a game – a team that blew late game leads 9 or 10 times just during the final stretch. Wagner was no sure thing, but I think even the most ardent Wagner hater would give him 4 saves in 10 chances. The Phils didnt have that disaster injury in a spot you can’t fill late in the year, they got hot at the right time, and they won it. But the Mets beat the Phils head to head last season, pretty well if I remember correctly, and if not for the injury at the back end of the pen, I think we all know the story is a little different. A year more of seasoning and experience for Pelfrey, Perez & Maine is to me, only a benefit…and that’s not even playing the “championship hangover/karmic breaks that went for you last year but against you this year” card with regards to Myers, Blanton and Moyer. I know you can play the “if” game until you’re blue in the face, but my point of contention is the line, “No matter which way you do it, the Phillies are at the top” – I think that’s wishful thinking right there. Before a game that matters has been played, 1-4 I think the Mets are the better staff and that it isnt even particularly close. 5 & 6 can be debated, sure. But as we all know games aren’t played on paper, so we’ll see how it all shakes out. Certainly, as always, enjoyed and appreciated reading all the hard work you guys put in here and the discussion as a whole - it’s a tremendous site and I’m a big fan. Well done, gents.
I have yet to hear 1 single Mutts fan swallow their pride and admit that the Phillies were a superior team last year and won the world series without a “but for the fact” in there throwing all kinds of excuses around. The Mutts 2-4 are good on paper, but unproven. The Phillies staff just led a team to a World Fuggin Championship on their backs and the backs of the bullpen.
The only way to settle any argument here is on the field, as we are T minus 3 days until liftoff. Should be a great season and intense rivalry as now WE are the ones looking down on the Mutts fans with a World Championship in our hands.
“I’m throwing twice as hard as I ever did. It’s just not getting there as fast.”
- Lefty Gomez (Yankees pitcher 1930-1943)