The Magic are a better team than the Sixers, and in no way am I going to argue otherwise. If the Sixers win, it will be an upset, the scrappy underdog beating the heavy favorite. So this is what I’m tackling – I’m assuming that in 6 or 7 games from now, the Sixers have upset the Magic, and there will be reasons why. As a matter of fact, the Sixers absolutely need to think this way, that the Magic are a much more talented team, and that they [the Sixers] will have to work harder and really dig in to even have a chance.
It would be much more fun to come up with reasons why the Sixers will lose, as I love spewing my disgust for how blah the season was, but I’m more than happy to do this because of what the Sixers mean to me, and despite the many advocates of tanking I think that making the playoffs matters (will explore that issue another time).
So here they are, the reasons the Sixers will have upset the Magic by next week:
- The obvious one is that there was some pixie dust left over from the Phils’ magical championship run, and that the Eagles and ‘Nova didn’t use it all up. Did the Sixers continue the streak? Yes, they surprisingly did. Some tiny, miniscule events turned certain games in the Sixers’ favor, for example: instead of the ball bouncing left, it bounced right; or, the refs made some bad calls against the Magic; or, Thad’s foot was on the line, but the refs didn’t see it; or something went wrong with Lou Williams’ GPS so he arrived at the airport late, and because he was in a frantic rush he accidentally got on the wrong plane and missed a few games (“How are you doing, Lou?” “Yi Jianlian? Hold on just a second…”).
- Two players really raised their game for the series – Marreese Speights and Andre Miller. Speights, inspired by being back home with friends and family, played fantastic in the games in Orlando. The Magic really had no answer for him coming off the bench. Miller busted his ass because this is his last stand, his swan song, his final bow, as a front-and-center NBA point guard. He knew that next year, with the NBA’s current trend for younger and faster point guards, that the best he’s probably going to do is a supporting bit on another NBA team, a la Michael Finley on the Spurs. He didn’t wanna go out being known for leading lottery-bound teams, or for not having what it takes to get out of the first round in the playoffs. He wanted to show that he can be a winner, so he went out there and won every little battle he could: he took really good care of the ball, got fouls on the other guards and he hustled for loose balls with complete disregard for the pains in his joints that he would feel later.
- Sam won the rebounding battle with Dwight Howard, which was absolutely crucial in keeping the games close so Iguodala and Andre Miller could win a couple with their clutch play. In terms of rebounding ability, I think Sam is just as good as Dwight, and he showed it – Dwight has the physical and athletic edge, but Sam can match his length, is much savvier, and has better rebounding instincts. I’m so glad he didn’t get the ‘fro-hawk this year.
- Sam’s partner-in-crime, Reggie Evans, basically won those two games against Detroit in last year’s first round series, and incredulously, he played like that the whole series against Orlando and was like a black David Lee. Those no-no-no-yes! jumpers were going in, and he either scored or got to the line on those passtheball-passtheball-no,dontdothat-goodjob! post-ups.
- We had the closer any NBA team needs to win a playoff series. Yeah, you know who I’m talking about. His first name rhymes with “padre” and his last name with “Walla Walla” (or Valhalla, chicken marsala, and Chevy Impala). He showed he could fill that role during the regular season and was pretty good at it in the series. Clutch plays all around. Also, you should read/listen to how people outside Philly perceive this guy. No one’s mistaking him for Brandon Roy anytime soon, but he’s legitimately considered to be a dangerous player, and he showed why. And being a smart, cerebral player, it was clear he learned a thing or two from last year’s playoffs and was much better this year.
So there you have it, the underpinnings of the upset series victory against the Orlando Magic. They didn’t magically learn to shoot 3’s overnight, or suddenly figured out how to defend the perimeter, but they locked in and focused and were able to tilt the scales just enough in their favor to take the Magic out. Good job, Philly. But don’t rest on your laurels just yet; Derrick Rose and the Bulls, having just gorged the defending champs, are waiting….
About the Guest Author: Zack is an avid and passionate Sixers fan and regular reader and commentor here on the Recliner GM.
Loading ...
{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
Zack, that L.S.D. can mess with your mind!!! I am going to predict Orlando in 7 games. Sam keeps Howard under 20 ppg. in the series and avg.!s 10 ppg. when Dwight helps on defense. Thad plays Lewis to a 22 ppg. to 20 ppg. wash.Iggy outplays Hedu, not outscores, but outplays him. Willie keeps Alston out of the lane and allows Sam to stay on Howard.L.Will. plays adequate defense because Alston can!t hit the jumper consistantly and L.Will. leads the Sixers in pts. in the series. A.Miller stays with Lee and Pietrus and eats them up down the other end. We magicly[ no pun intended] play good perimeter defense 5 of the 7 games to keep it close. Speights wins one game with a big 4th quarter kicking old man Batties ass. Zack, pass me another hit !!!
Nice job, Zack. I agree with a lot of your wishful thinking, I mean points, lol.
The way I see it, the biggest advantage we have is Miller against Alston. Our second advantage is Iguodala against Turkoglu, especially if Turk’s ankle is giving him the least bit of trouble. We need to get everything we can out of these two advantages. Everything with this team starts with the Andres. If they can get it, and keep it, going it will open things up for the other guys.
Our top two players having an advantage against their man is a big deal for us. The Andres have the ball in their hands the overwhelming majority of the time. They can create for themselves. They are also the most adept at creating for others and they actually look to do it (Lou, I’m looking at you!).
Remember, we had the exact opposite last year. Billups out-Millered Miller in pretty much every facet of the game on both ends of the floor, while Prince bottled up Iguodala. With our top two guys under wraps, we went nowhere. That should not happen this year and that should be a big help.
We know what Orlando’s deal is. Their 3-point shooting, as well as the huge disparity between them and us in that department, has been very well documented. So, I say that aspect has to be our focus defensively. We can’t let them beat us shooting wide open 3’s. We’ve got to stay home on the shooters at all costs.
Sammy and Theo have to play Howard by themselves, straight up and one on one (hopefully while managing their fouls, easy right?). We need them to stay with him and not overhelp on others. Hopefully in doing that they will be able to limit his easy baskets at the rim (lobs and such) and his offensive rebounds. Also, on the offensive end, since Howard likes to block everything, we need Sammy and Theo heading to the rim themselves, ready to catch lobs and dumpoffs from our drivers (Lou, I’m looking at you again!) for easy baskets.
Reggie? At most, I can see him getting a few minutes just being as physical as he can against Howard and using his fouls. Other than that, not much. He is too much of a gambler on defense and that will only force us into defensive switching and rotations, leading to open 3-point shooters every time down the floor.
Speights? I don’t know about him either. The matchups are tough. Howard will eat him alive and Lewis is always on the perimeter. Either way is a tough defensive assignment for him.
Hopefully Thad is at full strength because even if Lewis’ knee is good, Thad still has the quickness advantage. If Thad can stay with him on the defensive end, we’ll be in good shape, as he should be able to do alright against Lewis on the offensive end, and certainly in the open court.
Best case for us is that the Andres can carry the scoring load as well as create for others, who will be more open as the defense focuses more and more on the Andres, while our defense makes the Magic miss enough 3’s by continually forcing them to take contested shots and by at least slowing down Howard.
Nice Job Zack. You didn’t get into the nit and grit of rotating better on defense, or taking advantage of certain match-ups (Miller vs. Alston). You kept it simple. Do the small things that we as a team and as individuals are CAPABLE of doing and hopefully we can sway the odds into our favor.
I will do my best to evaluate our odds.
(Stay with me guys this might take a while)
Player Match-Ups!!!!
Andre Miller vs. Rafer Alston
This is my “Spotlight” match-up.
Miller clearly has the advantage when we have the ball. His ability to post up smaller guards is really going to be key in this series. The closer in Andre shoots, the better. When Miller is playing at a high level offensively, that means he is getting good looks, he is using his sneaky pump fake move to get to the foul line, and he is hitting open 12 ft. jumpers. I think if Miller plays well, we have a shot at this thing.
Now the real problem comes in on defense. Alston has the unique ability to get into the lane and pass out, and also knock down the open 3pt shot. Not only is Miller a bad on ball defender, he also tends to roam around when his man does not have the ball. He likes to go and help out his teammates. The Sixers will most likely use Miller to double, so it’s key that we try and get Rafer in foul trouble. That way Alston won’t be able to hit those 3’s. The other problem comes in when Alston is getting into the lane. Sammy can’t help because he’s on Superman. And the rest of the team has to stay home and guard their great 3pt shooters. If Miller can “D” up on Alston, then it will be hard for him to have a big impact on the game.
Willie Green vs. Courtney Lee
This is pretty much a toss up. They average pretty much the exact same statistics this season. I really can’t say much about this match-up because they are the role players of each team. But I can say one very, very, important thing. Last time we played the Magic, we decided to “pick our poison” and double Dwight Howard with Lee’s man. Lee couldn’t hit jack squat the first half so we figured, oh were doing a pretty nice job! And then Lee came out and drained 3 three’s in the second half and made us look like idiots. DON’T UNDERESTIMATE LEE! Just because you double with his man, doesn’t mean you don’t have to at least try to contest his shot.
Andre Iguodala vs. Hedo Turkoglu
This is hard for me because I don’t know Hedo’s health. But I can say this to Mr. Iguodala: TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOUR ATHLETICISM! There should be no reason Andre isn’t averaging at least 20 ppg in this series. The Magic are a great defensive team, but you have to be able to take Hedo to the hole if your Iguodala. Andre should be able to get Hedo in foul trouble, and that should trickle down to getting other Magic players in foul trouble. If we keep the Magic on their heels by taking it to the hole, then we can escape this series with a win.
On defense, Iguodala has to contest. He has a lot of pressure on him because he is mostly asked to guard the other team’s best player. In this case, he isn’t guarding Lebron or Wade or Kobe. He is going to be asked to do more than just shut down one player. He is going to be asked to help out on Dwight, Lewis and others. That means he has to pay close attention to where Hedo is on the floor. He has to keep track and be ready to jump out and contest Hedo’s three point shots. If we limit their open looks, then we increase our chances tremendously.
Thaddeus Young vs. Rashard Lewis
Again… I don’t know Lewis’s health. But I do know that Thaddeus has an advantage on offense. Thad has the unique ability to step back with range, but with his quickness and touch, he can drive to the basket and/or post up. Same thing with Iguodala…. try and get Lewis in foul trouble and if he isn’t healthy, go at him time and time again. Thad HAS to be relentless. No more passing up shots and watching Iguodala jack up a 3…. Take it yourself young fella! I have confidence that Thad will have a big series because lets face it… we have no shot if he doesn’t.
On defense. Do I even have to bring it up? All I have to say is November 26th. Still don’t remember? Hmmmmm maybe this will help. LEWIS AT THE BUZZER…….IT’S GOOD! MAGIC WIN!
Ok Thaddeus, you have let this happen to you twice. Once with Rashard and once with Ray Allen. Don’t let it happen again. Lewis torched us last meeting shooting 5-8 from beyond the arc. Thaddeus has to stay on him and contest everything he possibly can. I know Dwight demands double teams (which I will get into in a minute) but we can not let Lewis be the one to beat us. If we contain Rashard, I like our chances.
Samuel Dalembert vs. Dwight Howard
Well we have our hands full with this one don’t we? There is nothing Sammy can do to stop Dwight from rebounding, catching alley oops, blocking, and basically everything Dwight does on a nightly basis. That is… unless he is in foul trouble or something like that. Im not going to get into how Sammy can match Dwight’s athleticism with his Length… or anything like that. Because I don’t think it matters.
My strategy with guarding Superman?
Let him get his. If we leave good 3 point shooters to help out on Dwight, it gives them a lot of things:
-3 points
-Confidence
-Momentum
-Comfort
Everyone tries to stop Howard. Everyone double teams him and gives up open 3 point shots. That is what they are used to. Matter of fact, I think thats what they want us to do. I say nay! We are 0-3 trying to stop Howard by double teaming him so obviously that isn’t working. The definition of insanity- Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.
Is Tony Dileo insane? Probably. Will we double Dwight and get torched by Lewis, Lee, Alston, and/or Hedo? Probably. But I don’t think we should double Dwight. I think we use Sammy, Theo, Speights, and Evans to limit Dwight’s dunks. And most importantly…. USE ALL OF OUR FOULS. It’s obvious. Dwight can’t shoot!
If we can stay home on 3 point shooters, but limit Superman’s good looks at the basket… WE WILL WIN THIS THING!
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR MATCH-UPS DILEO!
GO SIXERS!
I’ll tell you what, so far the road teams have been victorious Game 1. I hope that trend continues. Right now, Portland is being schlacked by Houston at the Rose Garden. Good night folks, visions of Sixers victories are dancing in my head.
GO SIXERS!! AND COME ON FLYERS!!
I feel Sixers, of course have to play great defense to have a chance to beat the Majic. I believe the Sixers have to shoot the three, and shoot it well, starting early in the game. Magic is going to get theirs we need to get ours. I hate to say it but Sammy needs to play big for us to win. Sixers win in Six. GO SIXERS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guest……..A couple thoughts occurred to me while reading your post.
You said: If we leave good 3 point shooters to help out on Dwight, it gives them a lot of things:
-3 points
-Confidence
-Momentum
-Comfort
Very true. It also does one other thing. If the Magic knock down 10 or 12 more 3-pointers than we do, it puts us in a deep hole. Even if we play perfectly in every other aspect of the game, that point differential is almost impossible to make up.
You also said: The definition of insanity- Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result.
Again, very true. The first thing I though of when I read this was the quote from Iguodala after the blowout loss to the Nets. You know, when he said that the Nets just went out and beat them the same way every time and the Sixers never adjusted. That doesn’t make me too optimistic heading into this series with the Magic, you know?
Now is the perfect time to finally stop doing the same things, precisely because we do continue to get the same results. No adjustments against the Nets= 0-4 record against them this season. No adjustments against the Magic= 0-3 record against them so far this season. What does it take to realize that what you are doing is not working? It’s now or never for this season, so let’s try something else, huh?
I still say our best shot is to switch it up and defend the 3, making it our top priority. I said earlier that if the Magic make 10 or 12 more 3-pointers we’ll be in a big hole. Well, how many shots it takes for them to make those 3-pointers can make a huge difference, you know?
Let’s say the Magic outshoot us 14-4 from 3. Well if they are 14-30, that’s a problem. However, if they shoot 14-42 that’s a different story. We certainly have a chance at overcoming that 30 point differential in the latter scenario, don’t you think?
I think Orlando is really going to miss Nelson!s outside shot and scoring in the playoffs. They are a balanced scoring team and usually don!t have one guy go for over 30 ppg. . Alston has to look to score the ball for them to have a chance. A.Johnson could have a big role in defending A.Miller, if we post him up. I hope Deleo plays Willie on Alston because defensively it all starts there.
I don’t think Alston needs to look to score at all. That isn’t his game and never has been his game. All Alston has to do is not turn it over, make open shots (he should get a decent number of them) and provide some penetration with the intention of passing. That’s it.
Having him look to score isn’t a winning idea for Orlando. In fact if I was the opposing coach I would not help at all on his penetration and force him to make contested shots in the lane. Make him shoot. Because if he is the one putting up a lot of shots that means the guys that can really burn you aren’t putting up as many. And it also means open kick outs are limited.
bski: agree totally, that we must defend the 3 ball first, and worry about Howard second. We cannot match their 3 point shooting, we can try to match their 2 point shooting. That means no switch everything “help” defense.
I think the biggest advantage for the Sixers is that the Magic have no one who can guard Iggy…unfortunately, I don’t think that will make up for the fact that the Magic have a huge advantage at every other position except for maybe Thad vs. Lewis because I think Thad is a better defensive player….
bski, Your exactly right. Often times Im watching the Sixers and it seems as though we played very well, but we lost. When I go back to the boxscore, I see that we:
-Shot a better % from the field.
-Got to the free throw line (and actually made them)
-Forced turnovers
-And rebounded effectively.
Im wondering how in the world we managed to lose and then I look at the three point differential. I never realized how many more three point shots we let them get, than how many we make.
If I look at the boxscore and we go 2-4 from beyond the arc; and they go 9-18.
Well we just gave them 21 points. And against the Magic, it is certainly not out of the question for them to shoot 9-18…. IF WE DOUBLE TEAM DWIGHT AND GIVE THEM OPEN LOOKS.
What will decide this series, as many of you are saying, is how many contested 3’s will they make. And how many uncontested 3’s we give up.
Dannie, I agree to disagree about Alston. Nelson was as big a part of the scoring load as anybody else on that team this year and Alston [12 ppg. with Orlando] needs to get double figures for what they do to work. They are [9-8] versus playoff teams since Nelson went down partly because he was so efficient shooting the ball this year.
Suede - You can agree to disagree if you want but what you say doesn’t make sense to me from a basketball perspective.
Since when does a player “have to look to score” to get in double figures (10+ points)? Like I said he will get shots because of the attention Howard, Lewis and Turkoglu will get and the good passing and ball rotation they have. He doesn’t need at actively go after them. He needs to make shots, he doesn’t need to try and create them for himself.
I don’t know how much Magic basketball you watched this season when Nelson played but I think you might be a bit confused as to Nelson’s game. He played out of his mind to start the season. And there were certainly times when he created his own shots (which he’s better at doing than Alston), particularly off the pick and roll. But what happened very often was him catching and shooting and making at a high rate as well as dishing to Lewis, Turk and Howard. His three point attempts doubled this season to 4.3 per game and his %s were fantastic. All Alston needs to do is make the shots that come to him.
Furthermore, you are proposing a strategy that goes against the players strengths. Alston is not a scorer yet you are saying its a good idea for him to actively attempt to do so. I can say with certainty the coaches I’ve played for would frown upon that thought. Alston at his best is making open assisted shots, creating shots for teammates, not turning the ball over and playing solid defense. Not attacking to score.
Dannie, with Nelson they had 4 shooters surrounding Howard, now they have 3; I feel the key to this series is not allowing Alston, more of a slasher, to get to the lane area because if he sits outside and shoots jumpers that is a plus for our team. My problem all year with our defense is we DON!T identify the main threats on opposing teams and basically treat every opposing player the same. So when Alston gets in the lane I bet you somebody leaves their man [A.Miller,Sam] being the major culprits usually and allows the better scorers to get open. That is the one thing our defense has done consistantly all year, that is why if I!m Van Gundy I tell Alston to penetrate and look to score early .
Morty & Guest……I’m glad we’re all in agreement. Unfortunately, we are not in on the game planning. Let’s hope for all our sakes that DiLeo or somebody on the coaching staff has had a “lightbulb moment” and we will see a different defensive strategy. It’s probably the best shot we’ve got.
Gotta go watch the Phils now. I’ll try to check in here before tip off.
Dannie/Deepsixersued
I feel like Alston is a player that can hurt us if he gets into the lane. Like Dannie said, he is at his best when he is creating open shots for teammates. But seeing the last 3 games against the Magic, Alston is the one I want to be shooting open shots, if anyone. We “picked our poison” against them last time, letting Courtney Lee shoot the open three pointer. He torched us in the second half and like I said before, “made us look like idiots”. We all know Hedo, Lewis, and Lee can beat us if they are taking open shots. It remains to be seen if Alston can beat us. I say we lock up everyone else (or at least try to) and see if Alston can make us pay for Andre Miller’s defense or lack there of.
Guest, I hope A.Miller isn!t on him much, it will be interesting to see how our guards match up to start. Their other guards don!t penetrate much so we!ll see how it goes.
Now is the time where DiLeo must unleash the rest of the bench: Royal Ivey, Donyell Marshall, and a sprinkling of Kareem Rush. Their shooting could be the tip of the series!! So far, nobody has mentioned them on NBATV, ESPN, and probably not TNT.
I call it: Project 3 of 3!!
Also, this is a series where Elton Brand would have been needed. Someone who can defend Howard one-on-one in necessary stretches and take away his rebounds. Plus, the strength to post up on Howard and overwhelm Lewis and Turkoglu down low making them try and play honest defense. (Anyway, that’s next season!! Good luck Sammy and the rest of the frontcourt!!)
GO SIXERS!!! MAKE THINGS INTERESTING!!
You don’t flip a switch and all of a sudden become a fine defensive team. Just like you don’t forget how to find the open man when confronted with a new scheme or 2. I suspect Sixers intensity will be resurgent today until the adrenaline fades, then defensive habits will show and Magic shooters will do their typical damage. 48 min of playoff defense: not in DNA. Sixers biggest edge: chip on shoulder from lack of respect and looseness that results from no expectations.
Magic: 2 current All-Stars, more playoff experience, solid defense,
decidedly better shooters, a more dynamic coach. My prediction:
Orlando in 5 (6 if Dalembert rises from comatose play).
Morty, Was Iggy grimacing and complaining about the fill of his grande cup the other day? I propose trading him to New Orleans for a Dunkin’ Donuts kind of player, David West. Who says you can’t correct 80 million dollar mistakes?