November 24, 2014

Top-20 Phillies Prospects for 2011:
#16 Domingo Santana, OF

Basic Info

Age (Opening Day 2011): 18
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 200 lbs
How Acquired: Amateur FA, 2009

2010 Stats

First the good. It’s very impressive for 17-year old kid to be taking as many walks as Santana did last year. Clearly he didn’t get the hits, but to show a good eye at his age is rare.

The bad? Well that would be everything else. He struck out in more than 1/3 of all of his plate appearances and unlike those that do it in the majors, he didn’t have the power to go with it.

Scouting Report

Raw. Raw. Raw. Potential. Potential. Potential.

Santana has several good tools, including raw power, a good arm and plate discipline, but he is so far away from realizing his potential, it’s hard to get past the basics with him. Baseball Prospectus said of him prior to the season that his upside is a “prototypical power hitting RF” but is “eons away from the majors.”

The Phillies surprisingly pushed him last year, sending him to Lakewood, where he was the youngest player in team history. He struggled, getting sent down to Williamsport (though that was probably the plan all along) where his numbers improved, but were still sub par.

What to Look For in 2011

First off, it will be interesting where the Phillies put him to start the year. Do they push him again in Lakewood? Or try to keep his confidence up at Williamsport or lower.

Second, wherever he plays, can he improve on his contact rate? The walks are great, but it doesn’t matter how much you walk when you hit .211. It looks like Santana will always strikeout, but he’s got to reduce it and he’s got to do better when he gets his bat on the ball.

Grades (Out of 10)

Upside – 9

If not for his upside, he wouldn’t be anywhere near this list.

Production – 2

Only the walks keep this from a 1.

Proximity to Majors – 1

Could not be further away.

Video

At the plate in Lakewood, 2010

At the plate in Williamsport, 2010

For all posts on Phillies’ Prospects, including the rest of the top-20, visit our Top Prospects Page

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Comments

  1. Ken Bland says:

    You appear to have been a little more enthused about him last year, Pete, when you rated him higher.  I’m attaching just for comparison.

    http://www.reclinergm.com/phillies-top-20-prospects-for-2010-7-domingo-santana-of/

    All I can say is I do see a world of potential in him, and thinking that Heyward and Stanton are maybe 4 years tops older than him, its a good barometer as to the difference of potential and can do, and just how good those 2 are.

    But the young man appears to be of awesome potential.

  2. Pete says:

    KB-

    Prospects are a fickle business!

    Last year was all on potential and very little stats. Now that we have stats? not so good.

    Also – I plan on putting up a HOF related post shortly so that discussion doesn’t have to end.

  3. Ken Bland says:

    The Phillies announced that Delwyn Young is one of seven players they have invited to Spring Training. The Phillies and Brewers pursued Young after he elected free agency last fall.
    Philadelphia also invited Brian Bass, Tuffy Gosewisch, Joel Naughton, Robb Quinlan, Michael Schwimer and Michael Stutes to Spring Training as non-roster invitees.>>

    Nice move to invite Young.  Diverse, probably inexpensive.  Switch hitter, can play right field, or second base.  Should go down to the final cuts and probably survive.
    Don’t know the others, but Tuffy Gosewisch is a pretty cool name.

    As is often the case, from the boys at MLBTR.

  4. Ken Bland says:

    From tweets…or twitterers, or whatever…

    Thursday night openers on ESPN: Tigers vs. Yanks; Padres vs. Cardinals and Giants at Dodgers.

    Astros’ season-opener against Phillies on ESPN on April 1 at noon Central.

    And I’ll add that if MLB network doesn’t feature Saturday night’s Game 2 against Houston, there is something drastically wrong.  We all know who’s pitching for us, and maybe its against Brett Meyers.

  5. Ken Bland says:

    It appears extremely likely that Scott Franzke will carry forth his contract into 2011.

    I had started to wonder ifn the Texas Rangers not announcing a TV replacement for Josh Lewin, relieved after 9 years might suggest Franzke negotiating an out of his Phils deal to pursue that job in his native Dallas.

    I sent an e mail to Barry Horn, media critic at the Dallas Morning News, and his reply was “I’ve been told Franzke is not in the mix.  Sad.”

    Sad, shall we say, depends on your opinion ofn Franzke’s work, and what team you root for.

    Go Phillies!

  6. Pete says:

    good to hear – I think most (all?) fans prefer he and LA to the horrible (IMO) TV crew

  7. Ken Bland says:

    General concensus, and that’s without any sway of strength either way is that Cubs gave up depth for Garza, who if I’m not mitskane is controllable for 3 years.  Cubs certainly have some rotation depth now, and their former pitching coach, Larry Rothschild is the pitching coach for the Yanks now.  Might be a possible trade.  Course Tampa still has a good rotation.  I think the Cubs get better, and strengthen the Central, maybe tightening things, but it’s not like it valts them to the top.  Cincy continues to look strongest to me, particularly acquring Renteria, who like Uribe, the Giants will miss.

  8. Ken Bland says:

    I feel like at least writing something about the tragic loss of Dallas Green’s grandaughter in the Arizona shootings.

    Push to shove, Dallas might be my all time favorite Phillie, he’s certainly up there.

    And while no family should have to suffer through the loss of a child through unnatural causes at a minimum, personal appreciation of Dallas finds me digesting this, rather than just skipping to the next story. May the passage of time enable the Greens to cope through this experience and somehow, move forward.

  9. dude says:

    Escolona to AAA Houston (lol) for a 2B prospect with pretty decent offensive numbers (per murphy at philly.com).  I’ve commented before about our lack of infield depth, so its interesting to see a move on that front.  Curious what others think…

    I’d love to see Franzke & Anderson get a shot at TV…then i wont have to choose between radio & TV with the volume turned down…

  10. Ken Bland says:

    I guess you mean in the system?  As opposed to the Big Club?  On the parent club front, Pete had taken a shot at the 25 man roster for Opening Day, which included Wilson Valdez as the only back up infielder.  While that’s possible,  personallty, I’d prefer two, which seems doable since we’ll probably carry fewer pitchers than most.
    We signed Delwayn Young as a no9n roster free agent about a week ago, amiong about 7 other players, but he has big league experience, and can play 2B, 3B, and RF.
    Think he has like 4 years in or something.  I’m thinking they give him a good look come spring as the second infielder/RF/PH, but there may be another candidate I’m not aware of.

    As for this kid they got, I’d think he’s farm system depth for now.  I mean that in terms of down the road.  Nothing stands out from his record that suggests he’s everyday material in the majors to this point.

  11. Stu says:

    Somebody wake up Pete.

  12. dude says:

    “I guess you mean in the system”

    Yeah.  I’m not too worried about the current roster.  I was just looking at 2012 and beyond, and seeing a lot of money going to a few guys.  Maybe we can count on established players continuing to want to come here, and maybe we can continue to count on being able to pay for it.  Who knows.  But at some point you may need to fill holes from within.  We do seem to have a decent amount of good prospects, but seems heavy on pitchers & outfielders. 

    Not that any of this is keeping me up at night, but its something to think about, and im glad to see that someone in the front office apparently is.

    Any rate, this kid seems to be a good case study in how you need to look at stats carefully.  Murph’s writeup showed some respectable basic numbers, but Gelb pointed out that he made 20 some odd errors in just over 100 games, and struggled with the jump to AA.  So we’ll see. 

  13. Ken Bland says:

    I’ve always made excuses for high error totals in the minors.  Don’t know how accurate the thinking is, but kids are just devloping amidst maybe new positions, sometimes conditions are inferior to the bigs.  Carpenter may develop, he’s 23, still at leasdt sorta young for 2 more years, but he just doesn’t jump out as a prospect I’d plan my life around.  Do like the stolen base aspect of his game.

  14. Ken Bland says:

    From the makes sense to me department….

    Phils reportedly interested in ex Met John Maine this afternoon drew slanted eyebrows from me this afternoon.  Despite MLBTR’s rep as credible, respect to the agent pumping his client tactic.  But this observation…

    <<This has nothing to do with Joe Blanton. The Phillies starting rotation depth is very thin at the AAA level. As the article says, he’d have to accept a minor league deal, and despite having Worley and Kendrick as suitable replacements, they still need the depth. >>

    made sense.  We don’t know if Maine can be what he was, don’t know how injries shake out, all that good stuff, but it might be some low risk, high reward insurance.  I mean you would think that if Drew Carpenter was gonna make the big club, it’d have happened by now let alone going out and getting Cole a lot of company.

  15. Ken Bland says:

    Travels through the baseball reading cold of winter have led to running into some early takes on the Phils fates (and others)  in 2011, and how things will shake out.  Here are some that stuck in my mind, my reactions, and names applied, or some reference to degree of credibility by source as the hot stove starts flickering with just over a month before pitchers and catchers report…

    Ryan Howard will hit 40 or more homers this year…forget who wrote it, but ya gotta start somehere.  Some guy of journalistic magnitude, or blogging stature.  Anywho…to smash 40, or not, that is the question?  As I think about it, the guy had a theme of the pitching of last year won’t match last year’s greatness on the whole, 1 of his reasons.  I kinda think RyHo has a fairly decent shot at it.  On paper, it’s not as likely since he won’t have as good a protector behind him, on paper, and the Phils’ll see beaucoup lefties, but for all intents and purposes, the Big Man missed a month last year, and still swatted 30-32.  I’ll go tepidly cautiously optimistic.

    The Phils won’t win 96 games…definite SI.com piece, I wanna say Cliff Corcoran wrote it.  Quite honestly, I think I have a good handle on the club’s ability, and it’s a lot of wins, but I think it’s more likely to happen than not.  The 77 team that won 101, I believe the franchise record was a talented offensive bunch that blitzed through the year.  Complacency was never an issue there.  It might not be an issue here, but it’s a threat.  Chances of more than a 2 team competition seem slim, due respect to Florida’s bullpen moves.  Even with that, I’ll say we eek past 95.

    Cole Hamels will have a better regular season than Cliff Lee…score this guess from a noted Phillies blogger as plausible.  Plausible is from the same family tree as maybe.  I think Hamels pitches a lot like last year, which is really good, and I’ve seen Cliff Lee pitch human on far more occasion than the legend allows.  I don’t know if Cliff has a career year left in him, but between settled (definite) and healthy (unlike last year), the Cole Train at best makes it arguable.  Put a check mark nest to Cliff Lee.

    Doc Halladay will lead the Phils in victories…That’s among the starting pitchers.  That’s the majority conjecture from a sampling of some 7000 electronic voters on a Philly.com poll.  That’s from a field of Roy’s and C’s, and I don’t even think Joseph Blanton made the ballot.  Hell, even John Anderson made the ballot once upon a time.  Last year, I confidently predicted Doc would go 18-6.  Solid prediction knocked out by reality.  I suspect he may enjoy his last 20 win year this year, and it’s about 50-50 as to whether he leads the club in wins.  That’s if he stays healthy.  I got no prediction on that.  I got hope. 

    The Phils will trade either Ryan Madson, or Brad Lidge by the 7/31 trade deadline….ah, ya gotta love these bloggers that speak their minds.  You don’t see contenders weakening bullpens at the trade deadline too often.  Nor will you see Madson and Lidge in the 2012 Phillies team picture.  But I’m pretty sure Lidge will be good in his free agent year (that is as kiss of death as it gets), and Madson will be good because Madson is really, really good a lot more than not.  It’s just too radical for me to project one of the young guns in the pen comes through well enough to go to H2 with less than the original construction of The Bridge to Lidge.

    The over under on no hitters, as set by Keith Law, of Harvard and ESPN fame is 2…does seem a tad low to me.  I’ll take the over.  Probably not the 7 of last year, and it’d be kinda sorta cool if pitching maintained the degree of last year’s presence, but there are some really deep, as in 1-3 rotations that might not correlate with no hit results (ask Tom Seaver about that), but enough to increase the liklihood.

    Jayson Heyward will/could hit 40 dingers this year….  Well, rest assured the young man’s final resume will show that for a singular season, but the low 30s is a nice enough increase for this year, if he even bangs that many.  I figure he’ll have good protection behind him for the first time, make more contact, and blow us away that he’s just 22, but not that big a jump.  I forget who came up with that one.

    Then there was the one from whoever that boldly predicted that Jose Bautista would hit like 20 homers this year……Granted, greatness can be a fleeting concept, and career years are usually singular in appearance.  And I don’t want to mention Brady Anderson and steroids in the same sentence, but once in a lifetime seasons do occur.  I don’t think Bautista was a fluke.  I don’t know his skill set well enough to even ponder if he’s really broken through, but I think he’ll bang enough to suggest he’s more long ball than the first several years of his career suggested.  More than 30, around 35 seems reasonable.

    The Red Sox will beat the Brewers in the World Series…what does a picture of a toungue in a cheek look like?  I’ve heard the expression, and extending the toungue to the cheekbone is easy, and maybe that’s what Tony Mazzerotti of the Boston Globe was when he looked ahead to 2011 and picked the Pats to win the Super Bowl, over the Eagles, and the Sox to lose to the Brewers.  As Whitey Herzog said, “the best team doesn’t even win the World Series anymore because of the playoff field quantity,”  the quote does make you think of a good Brewer club firing on all cylinders at the right time.  Good pitching at the top, scary middle of the order, seemingly motivated.  But if Lady Luck matches them against a now veteran Cincy, or Phillie club in the playoffs, that prediction is void.  But it might get that far.

    All that’s feeding off other’s views.  The only original prediction I’ve made so far is that Shane Victorino is up for a very good year.  Maybe I’ll come up with 1 or 2 more before Opening Day.

  16. Ken Bland says:

    <<Cole Hamels will have a better regular season than Cliff Lee
    Doc Halladay will lead the Phils in victories>>

    Bill James and Fans projections for 2011 (wish I knew who fans were…maybe a pool of fangraph followers?
    James numbers first/then fan projections

    Pitcher    Starts         IP            ERA            K/9               W/9                 W-L
    Doc        32/32   245/238  3.16/2.68   6.98/7.56     1.40/1.25       18-9/18-9

    Cliff        29/32   216/229  3.40/3.20   7.04/7.61     2.04/1.34       14-10/17-8   

    Cole       33/32   219/207  3.45/3.37   8.59/8.57     2.38/2.30       15-9/15-10
      
    Roy O    32/32   221/203   3.38/3.51  7.17/7.54     2.12/2.31       16-9/15-9

    James projects 63 wins (37 losses) from the starters, fans 65-36.  James is nuts if he thinks Cliff Lee walks over 2 batters per 9 innings.  Or his data base is nuts.  James figures suggest Cole does have a better regular season than Cliff.  I missed the H/9 column which should be in thefre, but phuck it.  All parties seem in agreement that Doc will lead the club in wins.  I might have been lenient last night in saying Doc might have his final 20 game season in 11.  They don’t make 20 game winners with the frequency they used to.  He might though.  Cliff was 12-9 last year, with some outrageous numbers underneath.  He seemed (memory) fine after settling in off his early season injury, but was brutal with texas when the back acted up.  Something like 1-4, 5 plus ERA duruing thatr time if not higher.  He should do the fans record of 17-8 up to 20-5 if he’s healthy.

  17. x says:

    Santana could easily be farther away from the majors. He could still be in Williamsport, he could be in the GCL, or he could be in the DSL/VSL. Lakewood for an 18-year-old is quite good.