After Hiroki Kuroda’s mastery of the Phils, they won three straight, scoring 25 runs (8.3 per game) and welcoming Chase Utley (7 for 13, 8 RBI) and Ryan Howard (2 HR, 5 RBI) back to earth.
If this offense can catch up to what the starters have been doing, this could get ugly for everyone else in the league. Or maybe not. What the hell do I know. This IS baseball after all.
2010: 76-58
2009: 77-57
2008: 73-61
2007: 72-62
The Good News
- As already mentioned, Utley and Howard showed big signs of life. Hopefully the start of a very productive September for both.
- Since July 20th, Jose Contreras has a 1.04 ERA in 19 appearances.
- We talked about Lidge a lot in the comments for the previous series. He did an excellent job last night getting 4 outs.
- Roy Oswalt through 7 starts: 4-1, 1.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.
The Bad News
- Victorino has a .672 OPS as a lefty this year. .930 as a righty. Last year it was .787 and .844. Not sure how to explain that.
- After an amazing July (.952 OPS), Raul Ibanez dropped back down in August (.695 OPS).
Prospect Update:
Aaron Altherr might be the next toolsy outfielder to keep an eye on. The 19-year old has performed well in rookie league and short-season. In Williamsport, he’s hit .301 with an .808 OPS. Also, I’m going to give a shout out to fellow Radnor High School alum Jordan Ellis, who has pitched very well in relief this year for Lakewood and Clearwater. Ellis, 24, has a 2.44 ERA and a 10.6 K/9 rate in 73.2 IP. If he wants to make the next step, he’ll need to cut down on his walks (4.4 per 9).
Series Preview: Brewers at Phillies
The Phillies would do well to make a move this weekend. While they play the Brewers at home against 3 pitchers with ERA’s around 5, the Giants have a rivalry series with Dodgers (who throw Billingsley, Lilly and Kuroda), the struggling Padres play the Rockies and the Reds might just bury the Cardinals for good. The Braves have the Marlins, but I’m resigned to the fact that they are making the playoffs one way or another, so I’m just worried about the Phillies padding their wild card lead, whether we pass the Braves or not.
Probable Pitchers
Friday (7:05): Hamels vs. LHP Chris Capuano (2-2, 5.06 ERA)
Saturday (7:05): Halladay vs. RHP Dave Bush (7-11, 4.71 ERA)
Sunday (1:35): Kendrick vs. LHP Randy Wolf (10-10, 4.76 ERA)
3 Questions for the Series
- Can the Phillies pad their lead this weekend?
- Can Utley and Howard keep it up?
- Can the Phils score Hamels some damn runs?\
Series Prediction
Sweep ‘em boys, sweep ‘em.
A Final Note
This relates to the lengthy W/L discussion in the previous post. It’s as if Jayson Stark was reading the blog.
Also, before I get there, the last post had 353 comments. The 2nd most in ReclinerGM history (record is 422). Great stuff everyone!
If there has ever been an award race that loomed as a referendum on where we stand on New Age versus Old Time award values, this is it. We’re about to find out exactly how sabermetrified our trusty Cy Young electorate has become.
If this were 1963, or even 2003, there’s no doubt who would win this Cy Young. That would be Sabathia, a big-time ace who is 19-5, has gone 15-2 since the beginning of June, just ripped off a streak of 16 straight quality starts and has a shot to become the AL’s first 24-game winner in two decades.
So for voters fixated on the old win column, Sabathia currently owns eight more wins than King Felix. And it wouldn’t shock anyone, given the state of their two teams, if that gap inflated to nine, or 10 or 11 wins by the end of the season.
OK, so then what?
It’s one thing for the voters to hand a Cy Young to 15- and 16-game winners over a 19-game winner, the way they did last year for Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke. It’s another thing to deliver a Cy Young to a 13-game winner over, say, a 22-game winner.
But remember, this is a performance award, period. And King Felix leads the league in every meaningful sabermetric pitching stat on Earth except adjusted ERA+ (where Buchholz is No. 1 — and Sabathia ranks ninth).
Even if you compare more traditional numbers, though, Hernandez has an ERA that’s three-quarters of a run lower than Sabathia’s, an opponent OPS that’s 74 points lower, more innings pitched, a better strikeout rate and a better WHIP.
So if you truly analyze the big picture, Buchholz (your ERA leader) and Wilson (whose team is 15-2 in his past 17 starts) should rank ahead of Sabathia in this race. But are voters really ready to ignore that win column completely? We’ll find out. Won’t we?
My Ballot:
- Feliz Hernandez
- Clay Buchholz
- CC Sabathia
- CJ Wilson
- David Price
Stark also addressed this in his chat….
Mike (New York): 13.I cannot buy into ?King Felix? being a lock for the CY young. Since when wins did not mean much? Shouldn?t it be taken into consideration which pitcher provided the most wins for their team when started. Doesn’t wins, more or less, play into a pitcher’s chances in the hall of fame?
Jayson Stark : Thanks for getting into this, Mike. I’m not one of those people who says, unequivocally, that wins are meaningless. Are they an overrated stat in this day and age? Yes. But meaningless? No. So I’m not willing to just trash the win column, like a lot of people are, come Cy Young time. But I also believe the Cy Young is a performance award: Who has pitched the best? And it’s tough to ignore the difference between how good CC’s team is and how good Felix’s team is, especially offensively. Felix beats CC in pretty much every category except wins, and beats him convincingly in ERA and WHIP. So let’s see how this turns out. But as much as I admire and respect CC, I don’t think he has pitched better than Felix Hernandez this year.
Jason (Philly): I think the fans deserve a consistency in Award Voting, the Cy Young should be chosen the same way each year as determined by the voters. My point being every year until now CC would win hands down.
Jayson Stark: So wait. Your point is that we’re not supposed to evolve with the times? In an age where starters no longer pitch deep into games, and where we have more information to evaluate pitchers other than “wins,” we’re supposed to just vote the way people voted in 1962? Sorry. Don’t see it.
Paul (NYC): Can we at least factor in the fact that CC has been pitching in the middle of a pennant race, with the rotation in disarray, basically carrying the team on his back for the last month?
Jayson Stark: I agree with that. I believe in factoring in EVERYTHING. But I also believe that this is not the Most Valuable Pitcher award. So it’s only a piece of that puzzle, not the determining factor.
to add to that; the Cy Young, like other awards, is an individual accomplishment award, which is certainly difficult to evaluate when you’re playing a team game where fielding and hitting tip the scales in either direction. but Wins are clearly more of a team statistic; evidence of the pitcher’s performance against the entire other team (pitchers and hitters) as opposed to ERA, WHIP, SO etc. that concern only the pitcher vs. the hitter. so unless we are calling it the most successful pitcher award (as opposed to the best pitcher award), W-L should definitely hold less weight IMO.
correction: instead of ‘against’ substitute ‘ as opposed to’ . makes more sense.
The Petester– Getting Bold! I like that. For some reason, that Rob Schneider character was in my head! The sweep could be tough though, these guys have been battling so many games through so many time zones and climates, those factors can do weird things to the mind. Yesterday was really sloppy defensively, but a hell of a win though. But I’m sure they will win the Brewers series and hopefully sweep!
GO PHILS!!
How many undeserving boobs did the Old Timers present Cy Youngs to on the basis of W number superiority? Not many I confidently say, if any. There’s a lot to be said for “unrefined”, naked eye, slice-the-pie, collective gathering of common sense. I’m not sure sabermetricians aren’t getting too cute, haven’t gone off the rail with their tentacled academic formulas of natural, applied competition performance … or maybe their findings are presently being given too much credence.
Using Stark’s quipped year (and he is a quipper), 1962 (when 1 CYA was given for MLB), if WAR number is the yardstick then Turk Farrell, Bob Purkey, Hank Aguirre, Ernie Broglio, Bob Gibson, Bob Friend and Warren Spahn best Don Drysdale (the actual CY winner). If ERA rules, Hank Aguirre wins (Drysdale 6th overall, behind Oriole Robin Roberts and Bob Shaw). WHIP: Drysdale 5th (Ralph Terry topped him).
SO/BB ratio: Drysdale down the list, behind leader Ken Johnson & Don Mossi & others. But winner Drysdale started the most games (41) and won the most games (25) in MLB for a Dodger team that lost the pennant to Giants, and has retroactively been assigned a 127 ERA+ by seamheads for his awarded (by intelligentsia of the time) work. I don’t recall there being any hue and cry against that particular selection. Numbers fail to measure all, and can fail to measure the totality of one player’s impact – like Don Drysdale ’62 or CC Sabathia ’10.
Well, they just don’t make rehab assignments like they used to. Add 2 southpaw swingers to the bench for tonight. Gload and Dobbs have been activated. So we’ll be plenty deep in certain areas for the next few busy days, including the double dip on Monday.
One would think that Monday’s “emergency” starter is all but officially down to Drew Carpenter and Nate Robertson. Vance Worley is in the official starting lineup for the IronPigs. Worley would have been a real attntion grabber to check out, if for no reason other than neither of the other 2 are anything special. Perhaps we’ll get to check him out a little bit further down the schedule.
From the this makes perfect sense department…
Against FLA LH Andrew Miller (tonight’s starter), lefties are 6-for-9 w/ a triple and HR, while righties are 3-for-24 w/ no extra-base hits.
I have been reading the blog for the last two years and decided it was time to join in.
Anybody know what kind of prospect Alvaro Bacil is. Just read that he was banned for 50 games for failing a drug test.
<a href=”http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/13875680/phillies-prospect-banned-50-games-for-positive-drug-test”
The Yanks won again today. 7 straight. Ahead of the field including the never sell enough tickets Tampa Rays by a game, as those 2 go 1-2 in every power poll known to baseballkind.
Whoop dee do.
Over in the NL, some games you watch stay with you between a while and forever. Particularly wins. Remember when the Phils came out of the break and managed to lose 3 of 4 including a Sunday night embarassment to the cursed Cubs? Headed next to St. Louis for a 4 game set. What you wouldn’t give to play the Redbirds now, eh? That particular St. Louis club extended the Phils woes by winning trois as in 3 of the first 4 of a 4 game set. And this was weeks, as in plural after I had written my Phillies season and era obituary on the day Chase Utley was disabled.
Well, a funny thing happened the next day. Cole Hamels struck out the first 5 Cardinals he faced. The Phils and Cards battled in midsummer midwestern daylight torture. So tortorous that the brilliance of Adam Wainright only went 6 innings before hitting the showers. The Phils and Cards went into the 10th in what has become frequent Phillies fashion, scoreless. Placido Polanco hit a homerun, the Phils added insurance, and the still stumbling, bumbling Brad Lidge came in to record a dramatic free baseball 2-0 save.
And you might say whoop dee do to that.
Shame on you.
Since that day, the number 1 and number 8 records in baseball belong to 2 NL reps. Now if I told you that the Phils are 1 of them, you still wouldn’t believe me because everytime they win or lose, the Braves have been right there in the Siamese twin column. So frequently, that Braves tv might shout Phils win after any of the Braves miracle comebacks, and that would prove true by night’s end. But hard as it might seem to believe, Harry, with the slooooow pace at which the Phils have cut the Braves margin, the standings since that enjoyable 2-0 Hamels gem over the Deadbirds show the Phils at a whopping 28-12 (.700), and the Bravos at an impressive 23-17 (.575). Gaining 5 games seems good nathematically, but watching the team’s daily progress, it’s easy to forget we’ve gained 5 games on them since then.
And you thought you were just watching a baseball game that day. And since that day, you’ve watched like a dozen would be no hitters, tons of low scoring offensive ineptitudes, and yet, at the same time, the best record in baseball. Not just the NL, mind you.
That is Phillies baseball.
looks like Jayson Werth is switching agents.
Would you switch agents if you were staying put?
One would think that Monday’s “emergency” starter is all but officially down to Drew Carpenter and Nate Robertson. >>
phuturephillies is of the opinion that Worley may be taken out after 35-40 pitches, which would suggest he’s the man.
Nate Robertson and Drew Carpenter still seem like most likely options, though Marlins have won last 10 games versus LH starters >>
That’s Murphy in reply to phuturephils
Worley’s night done? Savery up in pen…Rod Nichols just shook Worleys hand. 6 minutes ago via web
Worley thru one: 1IP 3H 0ER 0BB 1K, 14 pitches, 11 for strikes. 8 minutes ago via web
Vance Worley has given up 3 hits thus far in the first inning…saved by a beautiful DP started by Bocock
you sit there and watch the B1 unfold, and get optimistic, and the inning ends, and you realize Cole Hamels is headed back to the mound, and when you see him head out, then you realize why they didn’t score.
Worley did give way to Joe Savery. This could be outragwously cool on Monday
Ex WBLSer Ricky Ricardo showing multi lingual skiils! Buenos nachos Senor Ricardo!
Cole Hamels has a lead to work with.
Name the only Brewer pitcher to throw a no hitter.
That’s easy. All you have to be able to do is name a brewers pitcher. They’ve had so few over the years. I dunno, Pete Vukovich? Probably not, but what the hey.
The Hamels ERA watch is on. Down to 3.24 after 4 innings. Not a bad job.
Tonight is Cole Hamels Run Support Night at the old ballpark.
Rauuuuuuul time. Let’s go, big guy.
good at bat, a few fouls, coming back from 0-2. keep it up
I mean we are sitting pretty at 3-0 with Chooch.
I’m glad Charlie green lighted him. I thought he might. This is Charlie “Forever against the book” Manuel
Pete,
I like your AL CY ballot. Glad you took CJ against Price. DP was great early on, and has been good all year, but like Ubaldo has dropped a notch as we’ve rolled on. We both know it won’t turn out quite that way, but its very reasonable. One thing about the wave of the future voting. As the BBWAA turns over each year, its likely to become sabermetrics driven. Someday, I know not when, baseball telecasts will not flash avg, HR, RBI. OPS will sneak in there. It might be years away, but that’s where it’s at.
By the way, I thought the record for posts was when we got Doc at 315. I was concious of that last night as we blitzed through it, but an exciting game like that wasn’t going to stop toppin Doc. But I figured as Board Commissioner, you might put an asterisk on the Dodger-Rock thread since it was 2 series. ut if something else was 422, no asterisk required.
I bet Doc, Roy O and Cole are having a great time pitching together. Roy O got to pitch with Clemens and Andy one year, I’m sure that was a trip, Doc had Carpenter, and Cole had Cliff last year, but these guys muct really appreciate each other. It’d be totally awesome to see Cole finish strong tonight. Maybe the beard look i the trick.
Fish lead 5-1, B4. Fish get 15 more runs, and it’ll be safe.
tough breaks for lineup.
Cole might go 7 plus tonight. excellent form.
the hell with the b/s split of 67/49, I want to know the split on pitch types. Seems his most varied game ever.
well, that’s disappointing. get 2 strikes on him, put him away. now they have an RISP, and drive the PC up.
boy was that close
..screw that, I’m calling Hamels’ 2nd CG.
offesne frustrating you tonight jkay?
this is probably the inning that is Cole’s night, middle of order, off a pitch cout of 75.
not really. they’ve hit the ball hard.
got a good feeling tonight watching Coile.
though if we dont score, he might get pulled after 8.
offense gets a pass tonight. not easy to stay split second reflex sharp off last night’s trip. But they did frustrate me getting 0 off bases loaded 0 out.
let’s see how tough he is in this instance. Some guys, you shudder, but maybe he can get out of it.
smell the inning finish line
gotta get this guy, but it would be BIG TIME PITCHING.
looks like I credited Pete with Jayson Stark’s CY AL ballot. Could have been a lot worse. maybe John Gonzales from the Inky.
totally, unequivocally
HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE
uhh well, he may even get pulled now. PC plus seems to be wearing down.
excellent job though. its all about the score.
I’d like to go with Contrereas for 2 innings myself. I might even spot Bastardo (ahead of JC) depending on the matchup. We’ll see how he plays it.
2 innings? really?
at home against the Brewers?
I really hope he stays away from Brad. I think he’s playing with fire. It’s sound if you figure on Doc going 9, but that might not happen.
yes, 2 innings against the brewers. Assuming he’s good in the 8th.
that is shortstopping.
you would go Lidge?
cmon Jose
oooooh, that is outstanding
I’d stay Jose against Cory and Braun for sure. Fielder, I just don’t know. Antonio could give him trouble, but lests see first if we can score, and then how those 2 do.
at least Ryan had a night off last night. Muh as he worked, I’d have preferred 2 in a row. Watch the radar gun.
hmm i honestly dunno what I would do but I think Madson’s a good choice.
hard hitting ball club. one run is no good in CBP.
lineup is disappointing. how many times have we come off a huge momentum builder only to come out flat the next game.
Madson time!
that little rest must have helped.
he’s good.
just a little concerned about so much use the last 2 weeks plus.
96, not too shabby
1 out from probably 1 game out, but its Prince
wonder how Antonio would have done in this spot
the world would be soooo right for me if Ryan Madson could just be our closer.
never get tired of watching this guy.
next to Cliff, my fave.
hard hitting ball club. one run is no good in CBP.
lineup is disappointing. how many times have we come off a huge momentum builder only to come out flat the next game…
you gotta understand they didnt get off the plane untill 5 AM this morning with 4-5 hours of sleep. even if they got some extra sleep this morning, the team should be given a pass today
and nice to see some closing skill for the right hander. He’s struggled with that for some reason.
75% credit for W to Hamels who came in with a game plan against slugger special Brewers lineup. in CBP, set them up well, with an unfamiliar style that kept them guessing till the 7th.. Chooch had a lot to do with that though.
cant say enough about it.
this game was truly enjoyable.
today’s official game notes has already listed oswalt for monday afternoon and worley for the nightcap
today’s official game notes has already listed oswalt for monday afternoon and worley for the nightcap>>
good info, Barner. Wondered if O would get the 1st or 2nd. Should be a lot of fun. Agreed with your point on the pass for the offense. And I might point out from my own personal experience, smetimes you get by on adrenalin on the first night after short rest, its the second day that you’re slow. Just how its been for me, for what that’s worth. Have a link for the site that provides game notes? I used the one on mlb.com, but only pre-game. Maybe its the same and it changes for after the game?
The Probable Pitchers on Phillies.com lists V. Worley, but states that the Phillies have not made it official. Instead citing the fact that they pulled him after the first inning tonight.
21-12 through the first 33 of the final 60 games – need to get to 37 wins. We need to go 16-11 rest of way to assure a playoff spot. I expect they will have no trouble with that and see more like 19-9 or better with the very handsome schedule.Halladay (9-3) (4-2)Hamels (8-4) (3-4)Oswalt (8-4 (6-1)Blanton (6-6) (5-2)Kendrick (6-6) (3-3)
The Probable Pitchers on Phillies.com lists V. Worley, but states that the Phillies have not made it official. Instead citing the fact that they pulled him after the first inning tonight.>>
Yeah, best I can detect it’s about as obvious as can be without being official. About that kid that got suspended, sorry, I don’t know much about him. Perhaps you know already he’s a tall stringbean, 6’3, 170, has thrown professionally only 40 innings. Maybe Pete will have more for you, or Philly is the one guy I’m aware of on here that seems to be on top of the prospects.
phillyfan: … OR seeing as how we are only 1GB now, how bout we just scrap the arithmetic and knock the freakin Braves off the top.
KB: with recess not until Thursday, you’re right about utilizing our bullpen carefully. everyone’s had some decent work during that road trip, its gonna be tricky managing the situation over the next 6 games. something I’m not so sure Charlie is good at. it may not even be as dependent on getting 8+IP from Halladay or Oz, as hoping Kendrick, Blanton or Worley dont self destruct early.
So some stuff continues going our way on the late night front….
Cards beat the Reds, gain a game in HFA competition there (2 back?)
Rox leading the Pads, 4-0, gain a game there on the same front.
Cards and probable Rox win stay even with us, but 5 and 6.5 back.
Dodgers lead Giants 4-2, but you know how that pen is. We’d be 3 up on them.
So if we wind up the night leading SF by 3, that means the Braves, looking at the wild card as protection would have a 4 game lead over SF. With 30 games left, that’s by all means possible that the braves could be caught.
I mean so much could happen, but its fun to think it through
Our mission is the same as everyone else. Win as many games as we can. That’s the only way to approach it.
last time Doc pitched, actually last 2, seemed like mismatches, Houston and oh yeah, the Dodgers, didn’t get it done. Tomorrow’s another day.
One. Hell, yes!
its gonna be tricky managing the situation over the next 6 games. something I’m not so sure Charlie is good at. >>
I have been focussed on it because of the 24 in 23 and upcoming twin bill Monday. It always is this time of year. The way Ryan’s throwing, and that Lidge is markedly improved, even if still scary, which is even dying down, the bottom line is you have to say that Charlie and Ruben’s moves have been validated. Even if we don’t win the WS, all of us that worried about the pen have to pay props to the guys in charge. Sometimes, you just get beat, and the way it looks now, if we do lose, you just have to accept it. They have al pitched as we’d want them too. Okay, maybe not Baez, but a lot more than we thought would.
Here’s the story I mentioned earlier today….
Jayson Werth Looking For A New Agent
By Mark Polishuk [September 3, 2010 at 5:30pm CST]
Jayson Werth will no longer be represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, tweets ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. Werth hasn’t decided on new representation yet, and the process could take a while due to the “expected agent feeding frenzy” (Twitter link) that should surround the pending free agent.
It’s no surprise that Werth would want to be completely confident in his representation as he prepares to sign the biggest contract of his professional career this winter. Werth and Carl Crawford are the top free agent outfielders on the market and both should command annual salaries of $15MM or more. All of the usual big-market suspects will be in on the bidding, though given how Philadelphia was shopping Werth earlier this summer, it would be surprising to see Werth return to the Phillies next season.
I dont mean to be smart….but when you tally up the votes for “Most Posts”, don’t you have to factor in that one person alone accounts for about half of the posts?
And on a related note….Ken Bland did you ever consider just making a rolling post? ie: you just keep adding to your post until you realize an hours passed and you never pressed send .
The post hogging is getting a little out of control.
This must be what Hagen meant by winning low scoring games the other day. The digits match exactly.
<<The Phillies have now won 19 games when scoring three runs or less this year – compared to 22 in 2008 and 2009 combined>>
Outstanding game story by Inky’s Matt Gelb on last night’s game.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20100904_Hamels__Phils_blank_Brewers.html
Exactly why I even look at this Pecota playoff odds, I couldn’t tell you, but I check it daily. At some point when things were bleakest, they gacve the Phils a 16% chance of making the playoffs. Ove the last week, it had limbed into the low 50′s. But with the Cards and Padres in particular losing so much of late, it’s at 78% heading into Saturday.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Jayson Werth Looking For A New Agent
By Mark Polishuk [September 3 at 5:30pm CST]
Jayson Werth will no longer be represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, tweets ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. Werth hasn’t decided on new representation yet, and the process could take a while due to the “expected agent feeding frenzy” (Twitter link) that should surround the pending free agent.
It’s no surprise that Werth would want to be completely confident in his representation as he prepares to sign the biggest contract of his professional career this winter. Werth and Carl Crawford are the top free agent outfielders on the market and both should command annual salaries of $15MM or more. All of the usual big-market suspects will be in on the bidding, though given how Philadelphia was shopping Werth earlier this summer, it would be surprising to see Werth return to the Phillies next season.
There are 6 active pitchers in the bigs with ERAs of 2.76 or less during the month of September. And not exactly a small sampling, either. It’s based on 20 starts or more.
Three of the six include the Phils top 3 roation guys. But I guess Dodger fans bak in the mid 60s used to fret about that offense, too.
________________________________________________________
Cole’s ERA dropped to 3.18 last night. He was over 4 at one point. Realistic or not, I’ve fantasized, although that’s a strong word, about Doc somehow getting below 2, which would really be incredible since the lower you go, the harder it is to keep dropping, but I never dreamed Cole could get below 3.25. Sub 3 will take 5 games of 2 ER, 7 innings or more (and that’s just a guess), but it’s not unthinkable.
Naturally, the more you get, the more you want, so now the fantasy is could Cole get down below 3. Sub 3 will take 5 games of 2 ER, 7 innings or more (and that’s just a guess), but it’s not unthinkable.
By the way, I thought the record for posts was when we got Doc at 315.
I’m going to say that the record for posts (with 422) would have to be when the Sixers signed Elton Brand (somewhere during the time frame when it looked like they might sign him until they actually did).
Reds showing some character in STL, taking on Wainwright and not flinching.
Reds showing some character in STL, taking on Wainwright and not flinching.
>>
you ain’t seen nothing yet. wait til Aroldis throws heat at them in the twilight.
<<And on a related note….Ken Bland did you ever consider just making a rolling post? ie: you just keep adding to your post until you realize an hours passed and you never pressed send .
The post hogging is getting a little out of control.>>
AGREED
If we make the playoffs, I hope we dont draw the Reds.
I hope we dont draw the Reds.>>
That’s a powerful wild card they have with Chapman in the pen. Gives them tremendous flexibility.
That’s why Dobbs, despite good numbers against Bush isn’t playing tonight.
The post hogging is getting a little out of control.>>
AGREED>>
We have opposite views. You think I post too much, and I don’t think you post enough. Well, when you stick to the subject at hand anyway.
man, home runs just kill Doc sometimes. Just like they were Hamels earlier in the year. Although that was wind driven.
the Big Man is on fire…could hit 15 in September…
Halladay coming up small the last few.
that’s 4 straight games of multiple homers now. Nice little power surge toward the late season.
Phillie ball. keep ‘em coming.
not like Bush has anything to stop it.
for some reason, today’s notes doesn’t mention anything about monday’s probable starters. are rich and charlie playing games with us or what? however, all signs point to the call-ups for both teams pitching the afternoon game, which is opposite of what yesterday’s game notes said.
http://phillies.mlb.com/mlb/presspass/gamenotes.jsp?c_id=phi
not like Bush has anything to stop it.>>
looked like a hanging curve to Jayson, but with 2 strikes on him, still an accomplishment.
seems it may be that kinda game.
but still Doc needs to settle soon.
Bush can only trick you. and thats it.
so what’s up with Doc? 3 straight starts now that he hasn’t been Doc. Okay the first 2, but not Doc, and 60 through 3.
Maybe an extra day’s rest is in order somehow? Has to be fatigue, I’d guess.
matter of time jkay?
chase – what are you doing? so many reasons not to steal there. Big Man on fire. Why risk a leg or hand injury?
well its still the Phillies so u cant call anything, but looks good, they’re are patient.
pf: he went early in the count. plus Bush is SLOW.
I’d say Bush will be challenged to make it through the lineup one more time. Our hitters seem to be picking up his pitches well. You keep expecting Doc to find a groove, maybe that was a start.
As for Monday, I just figure its Vance, they’ll announce it when they are ready. I guess its mational defense level top secret for whatever reason.
let’s implement the DH rule right now
thats exactly how they were thinking when those idiots in the AL decided on it.
I was kinda surprised they pitched to Chooch for that reason, but hey, it gave us a chance. Maybe Doc’s getting it together. Be nice to get the top of the lineup now.
If that 3-2 walk isn’t a sign of fatigue, I don’t know what is.
I’d say Bush will be challenged to make it through the lineup one more time.>>
would ya now? Are you aware that since the top of the lineup started, they have made 5 outs on maybe 13 pitches?
well, we could be watching Trevor Hoffman go for save numero 600 at this rate. Sometimes history isn’t so much fun to watch.
this is not gonna help the stats.
was just thinking it was not a bad decision to trot him out for one more. oh well.
this is not gonna help the stats>> ERA only went up .12, to 2.36.
I wonder if he’ll use Gload or CB. No way he uses Dobbs.
The Phillies bullpen is still the weakest link on the team. Romero and Herndon have very high opposition OBP. Contreras is doing ok now, but he’s been very inconsistent this year. We only have 1 lefty, who hasn’t been that reliable, that’s half way decent. Madson is our only reliever with an ERA under 3 (2.95), and Brad is at 3.57.
maybe they said who’s in the circle, and I just missed it. But if they didn’t, how do they keep their gigs?
i’d say major damage to Halladay’s Cy Young parade done tonight. 4 homers tends to stick in people’s minds. That is a big number. Plus 3 straight starts without a victory. I think Hudson has edged ahead of him.
He better not be tiring. This is the stretch we got him for.
I think I might use Fransisco here. Better contact hitter, but less likely to hit into the DP. Course I don’t know the numbers versus the pitcher.
I think Hudson has edged ahead of him.>>
I wouldn’t disagree. That’s a helluva comeback by TH. It’s pretty close, but edge to TH.
On board with the homer observation, too. At least 20 now.
I guess we’re gonna find out right here if the bullpen is the weak link, or the hitting.
funny ump tonight.
wont complain now though
wow-good move taking advantage of Braun.
wow that was nuts
Hell, I was afraid Chooch would be out, let alone Wilson scoring. Again, Charlie pushing right buttons as Valdez walks, and shows good running skills. And he still has a lot of depth on the bench. Doc’s game to win wtill. We owe him that for the lousy support at times.
Braun is not a good defensive OF in any area.
As for Roy wearing down, if it’s true, you can put the blame on Charlie-he’s leading the NL in innings and # of pitches. Or maybe, the weak bullpen
he’s leading the NL in innings and # of pitches>>
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
not even close. I’ll tell you a story about the number of pitch part in a bit.
About 2 months ago, Doc was going for a complete game, and Dannie asked if anyone was concerned about him being overworked. 5 opinions came out in like 4 minutes. Next thing you know, Pete puts up a chart showing he had thrown a number of pitches that wasn’t close to the leaders. Then b.ski ran a post showig he had more innings and fewer pitches than anyone in 2 years. Really good stuff that you don’t get anywhere but on this site.
Now I grant you, that might have changed, and I don’t know how to access it, but I have to assume you think he leads in pitches because he leads in innings. But as of that night, his most incredible number was so many innings based on so few pitches. Maye Pete will update it in the next few days.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/nl/sort/pitches/type/expanded-2
all by himself ahead of Santana
okay, maybe it’s changed. I’m pretty sure I’m remembering the results back then as I told them, and if so, that would indeed be a lot of pitches to have caught up.
Honestly, I expected him to turn it up these last 3 starts (time of the year, first pennant race, etc), but it hasn’t happened. That’s why I guessed fatigue. If that’s right, there’s time to address it, and somewhere today, I read a quote from Charlie about he knows the deal on his work, and that he’s never logged even more work post season, so they are aware of it.
Lidge time. Stay tuned.
Considering what the Phillies are paying Ibanez, 12 mil.I think that they would be making a big mistake if they don’t make a competitive offer for Jayson
that boot high strike zone had better be there when Lidge is throwing his slider!!!
I’m thinking I suggested erroneous information. It was probably total pitches per inning that was low, which would explain why he’s now about 140 ahead of the field on total pitches. He’d have had too much to make u if my original contention was correct.
dino…can you cite like pete said before we get pissed off at you?
here is the MLB totals in pitches
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/pitches/type/expanded-2
dino just showed the NL ranking in pitches
Halladay leads the majors in IP by 32 over Jered Weaver and has 65 less pitches.
Be my guest to get pissed, but maybe I should be the one pissed since I already cited it
Ken, that may make sense since Roy’s P/IP and P/PA are not that high
i meant initially
dino,
so don’t act like you knew it on your own, have people say you are wrong, THEN give the link
anyway, great win. I suppose that Perlozzo may be due some credit if he waived Valdez in; the tv shot on MLB did not show Valdez rounding 3rd.
I did Barner….check the sequence of posts; I gave out the link after Ken posted that I was wrong
right dino…so don’t let that happen again. for example, you could have given us the link on post #117 instead of #120
Considering what the Phillies are paying Ibanez, 12 mil.I think that they would be making a big mistake if they don’t make a competitive offer for Jayson>>
when they signed Ibanez, they didn’t have 140 mil committed for the next season, which now includes Howard and Halladay’s expensive comittments beyond 2011. I think offering Werth a lot total and per is hindered by that.
Whather another deep playoff run might add some dollars to available salaries, common sense would tell me it would.
Whether they choose to use that to resign Werth, or upgrade elswhere, that’s a complete mystery.
i would simply get the best offer for ibanez, even if it was a salary dump. common sense tells us his production can only get worse, while werth should have a better 2011…at least with RISP
With a WS run in 09 and a year and a half of sellout crowds and a probable playoff this year, at least, they have a lot more revenue coming in than they did when they signed Ibanez. They are paying Werth 7.5 mil now so the difference isn’t that great.
Hopefully, they won’t go out and pay Moyer another $8/mil instead. It’s no secret that they have the cash flow going big time.
Is anyone else having problems watching the games on comcast?
The tv screen has recenlty been freezing and blacking out.
i would simply get the best offer for ibanez, even if it was a salary dump.
common sense tells us his production can only get worse,>>
If Ibanez were to be moved, I think it would be at mid season. What team is going to go into a year with the remaining 10-12 mil as their obligation for a guy like him? I see him as a difficult trade until July-August of next year.
If you want to look at Doc’s situation through half full perspective, a couple points come to mind now that the frustration of last night is a bit removed.
1/ The Fielder homer was greatly assisted by the wind
2/ It’s not like the whole lineup blistered him. Corey Hart, who was slumping is a good hitter, was maybe overdue, and ripped 2.
3/ He should get a an extra day off by virtue of Thursday’s long overdue off day. In fact, it’s not should, he will as Roy O, whoever, Blanton and Hamels draw the FLA assignments.
His next start is Friday at Citi. It’ll be the 4th straight start I’ll be lookig for him to turn it up as the post season approaches. Just hope he gets some run support at that stupid place.
Rollins SS,
Utley 2B,
Polanco 3B,
Howard 1B,
Werth RF,
Victorino CF,
Francisco LF,
Ruiz C
Kendrick P
Anxious to see how Kendrik does pitching to Ruiz for the first time in a while. I thought Valdez might get a start today, but when the manager says this is the lineup that will win or lose for us, I guess he means it.
marlins lead the braves 6-0 at the end of the 3rd!
Ironic in the Fish lead is that with a win, they’d have taken 2 of 3 from the Braves, and lost only the Josh Johnson start.
Also ironic is that about 10 days ago, the question of the time was how do we atnd in the Wild Card race since Atlanta was matching us game by game. Now, if the Fish hold, if we win, and if the Cards win, the Phils will be a half game behind in the HFA race.
The Braves play Pittsburgh next. Reds at the Rox. Can KK step up to the occasion?
apparently no lead is safe against the Braves.
bases loaded, Mc Cann just walked in a run, no outs, 6-2 now.
Marlins and Braves tied at 6
u gotta be freaking kidding me.
they’re like the Phils 2.0
Phils will need a great deal of patience against Wolf and his 66mph curve.
insane!
another gold glove for rollins this year
No Raul? No Brown, against a righty? Come on Charlie………..
Boring game today…so far. Good to at least see Mathieson
Howard ranks 23rd in Fielding Pct. for 1B in major leagues.
I wouldn’t overreact to 1 loss, but even tying the Braves for the East lead today would not have negated a challenging week ahead.
The Braves play the Pirates, and host the Cardinals. The Pirates are self explanatory, and I’d be so surprised if the Cards salvage their season to any significant point. Being as the games ar in Atlanta, even a bigger edge to the Braves. That while the Phils play the Marlins and Mets (there), and none of the 7 games should be taken for granted.
If I were to guess the playoff field now, I would think Cincy hangs on for home field advantage. I’d guess they have trouble this week at Colorado, but their schedule is relatively easy the rest of the way. The Braves may pass them this week, but I wouldn’t expect it to last.
So realistically, Cincy wuld play the wild card since it’s not coming out of the Central. Is that reason enough to try to win the East? I do think you’d rather play them in a 4 of 7 than a 3 of 5, and you’d rather face Cueto and Chapman in anything other than twilight, which is more likely in the first round due to scheduling (coule be wrong about that). Given the option of playing the West winner, which is brought about by Cincy having best record and s winning the East (well, I think so anyay), you’d definitely lean toward that. Choosing a poison of the Rox or Giants isn’t easy, but there’s a chance the Padres get in, and I like that matchup.
Cincy in a 3 of 5 is the most intimidating possibility. Winning the diviision should avoid that. That is not going to be easy.
What is easy is winning the wild card. With 25 left now, the Magic Number for a Wild Card celebration is 24. That should be a piece of cake.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/order/true
dino…can you not wait until someone thinks you are wrong before posting the link? we know you like to trick us into thinking you are wrong, then proving yourself right with a link. anyways, according to espn, you are wrong.
Your instinctive reaction when a pennant race starts offering some excitement is to think this will be “fun” the rest of the way. Well, yeah, maybe. Kinda sorta. On 8/20, 17 days ago, the Baseball Prospectus odds of going to the post season, compared with this morning…
8/20 9/6
Padres, 95.6% 64.6%
Braves, 89.9% 94.3%
Reds, 81.7% 97.7%
Phillies, 52.7% 72.6%
Cardinals, 46.7% 11.2%
Giants, 26.3% 32.8%
If any percentage changes shock you, it could be worse. On 8/20/95, the Angels had a 9.5 game lead in th West. They had a 12.5 game lead for the wild card. They didn’t make the playoffs. Distant memory does not allow me to recall whether the Angels, maybe like this year’s Padres, to whatever extent were playing over their heads. But I’m sure both were/are at least good clubs, or they wouldn’t have been where they were on 8/20 before giving way to Cubs Curse, Western Edition. Not to mention the way time is littered with many similar examples.
It’s not like a collapse can happen to just anybody. But the perils of baseball can suck an inconsistent club in at will. Negative momentum begets negative momentum. Perhaps one of this year’s NL entrants will fall such victims. Fans and media speculate on records the rest of the way. Players and Managers fall prey to the one game at a time cliche. Afficianados of baseball history know to take it to even simpler levels ofone pitch at a time. If Cole Hamels doesn’t give in to Carlos Ruiz’s call for a changeup in the 7th inning Friday night, the Phils might have 1 more loss. If Kyle Kendrick doesn’t play Macho Man and challenge Prince Fielder yesterday afternoon, the Phil and Brewers might still be playing r a Phillies win. A “fun” September? Hopefully. An “intresting” September? Most certainly. But the minute you start taking things for granted, take time to respect the historic realities of the game. That repeating itself is the only virtual guarantee that exsists between the white lines. The Phils 6 games against the Braves are still far, far away.
Choosing a poison of the Rox or Giants (as division winners)isn’t easy, but there’s a chance the Padres get in, and I like that matchup.>>
Of course there’s a chance the Pares get in. But as Buster Olney points out this morning…
The Padres’ remaining schedule, in a word:Brutal. 7 home games this week vs. LA,SF, then 10-game road trip (Col.,STL,LAD), then (more) >>
The Rox trail the Giants by 3.5, and the Phils by 5.5.
hehe…excuse me #22 instead of #23…check out his UZR
Black has done a great job with the Padres, but most out here have been waiting for their collapse. Even though I’d love to see them in the playoffs, I wrote them off a week ago.
You may be right Ken, it’s the hitting and not the pen that’s our weak link. Subject to change of course.