Villanova vs. UNC Final Four

Wow. Villanova against North Carolina in the Final Four. Personally I can’t imagine a better, more anticipated and exciting match up. The problem for me: who do I root for? I know Pete is all Nova and we will be watching the game together tonight. But even at this point I haven’t completely committed either way. The money for me is with UNC. If they win, chances are I will win my company bracket challenge and a few hundred bucks. That aside I hope to work out who I am pulling for more by the end of this post.

Match Up

UNC

You see the numbers (season + tourney). UNC is superior in every category statistically. They score a lot of points and do so efficiently. They are a very strong rebounding team particularly on the offensive end. They push the ball hard which has been a staple of Carolina basketball for a long time. Lawson leads the break better than anyone in the country with his ability to score and dish it – without turning the ball over.

Speaking of Ty. He has been unarguably the second best player in the tournament and arguably the best (Griffin is a beast). He is averaging 20.3 ppg, 6.7 apg, 0.7 turnovers per game, 2 spg, 3.3 rpg, on 57% from the field, 87.5% from the line and 63.6% from three. Dude has 20 assists and only 2 turnovers in 3 games and 94 minutes of play. Unbelievable.

UNC’s considerable advantage is clearly size. They have three guys in Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis that can score inside and rebound. If you toss in the freshman Zeller that makes 4. Nova can’t compete body for body in this area and shouldn’t (more on this later).

Their weakness? Has always been on the defensive end. They certainly don’t lack capable defenders. What they have shown at times is a lack of effort and concentration on that end of the floor, content with just trying to outscore their opponent. The bad news for Nova – they have kind of turned that around as of late. They have been dominant on both ends of the floor in the tournament really putting in the effort and focus on defense that Roy Williams has been pleading for. That is a scary combination and exactly why they were the overwhelming preseason #1 and national championship favorite. What everyone believe them to be at the start of the season they are proving to be at the optimal time.

Keys to a UNC Win

• As Ty goes so does UNC. If he has a strong game chances are extremely good they win. He starts their break, manages their half court offense, takes and makes big shots and his decision-making has been second to none.
• Take advantage inside. Who does Shane Clark defend? Thompson or Hansbrough? Both those guys can score inside. When Davis enters, at 6-10 Nova doesn’t have anyone that can match up. What that means? A ton of points in the point and a lot of rebounds. This is what makes UNC so tough. They are one of the few teams completely balanced teams that can score in every way. Fast break, post up/inside offense, perimeter shooting. And their rebounding drives their break and inside scoring off second chance points.

Blowout Factors

• Defense. In my opinion when UNC defense the way they are capable of. Turn people over the way they are capable of they are the best team in the country. They have been defending throughout the tournament. They completely dominating a good Gonzaga team and a good Oklahoma team as well. If they come out with intensity on the defensive end and put pressure on Nova, force Fisher and Reynolds to turn the rock over things could really get out of hand.
• Three point shooting. When they take and are hitting a healthy number of threes they often go over the century mark and their opponents simply can’t keep up.

Villanova

Nova is the best defensive team in the tournament in my opinion for a few reasons. They have interchangeable parts. Meaning they can switch a lot especially on the perimeter without giving the offense too much of an advantage. They are quick and swarm the ball to make up for their lack of size inside. They have done a really good job of limiting good inside post players scoring chances. They force turnovers with their very active hands and great digging of the post. They quickly turn that into easy buckets. Their perimeter defense has been spectacular. I read a stat on ESPN: In the tournament Nova’s opponents are only shooting 30.6% on jump shots. That stands to reason as they contest everything.

Offensively they have just gotten by. They yet to really shoot the ball the way they are capable of and although Svottie hit a monumental shot, he has yet to show his A game in the tourney.

Defense is vital for Nova but they must score. And score well to win this game. Your not going to win scoring on the 60’s or even 70’s. That means for the first all tourney the Cats need to shoot the ball well. Most importantly Reynolds.

Keys to a Nova Win

• Keep up the perimeter D. Nova must contain Lawson and keep him out of the paint. He creates so many open shots for Ellington and Green that it’s imperative to keep him put of the lane. I am really curious to see if and how Reynold plays him. I have not been impressed with Scottie’s defense at all. He torch in the american game and that level of D on Ty or Wayne will spell trouble for the Cats.
• Dante Cunningham can’t get in foul trouble. Not with all the size, offense and rebounding UNC presents inside. This is my biggest concern for Nova. Dante needs to be on the floor at least 30 minutes. Also he needs to attack Hansbrough on offense. Make him defend and potentially sit him on the bench like the Griffin brothers did in their previous game.
• Tons of pick and roll and pop. I think were UNC is weak defensively is when their bigs have to guard on the perimeter. They aren’t very good moving laterally and this is perfect for Nova to exploit. Just run ball screen after ball screen and attack off the bounce. Spread Carolina out, use clock, shorten the game and force them to defend for extended periods of time.
• Transition defense and poise. Look UNC is going to run. But that doesn’t mean let them do so easily. I expect to see Jay Wright play more 2-2-1 three quarter court zone to slow them down and would expect them to fall back into a bit more half court zone to deal with the size disadvantage and as a way to keep Ty on the perimeter. About poise, I fear the Cats could get caught up trying to run with Carolina and no one does that very well.
• Rebound, rebound, rebound. Nova is good at this already but UNC is better. I am really talking about the defensive boards here. Giving UNC’s potent offense extra chances to score is a good way to get blasted. Can’t happen tonight and it has to be a collective effort.

Prediction

I can’t pull myself to pick Nova as hard as that is for me to say. Now I do believe they CAN win, but I don’t think it’s likely. I just think UNC is on a mission and those guys came back for this moment. They played about as bad as they could in the first half of their Final Dour game last year. That feeling of disappointment won’t let the same thing happen this time around.

I think they will be extremely fired up to start the game and Nova will have to match their intensity and potentially weather an early flurry.

I expect Nova’s toughness to keep them in the game for sure. But in the end I think Carolina pulls away late to a 10 point win.

For that result to be different Nova’s guards have to have super games. That’s the way teams have beat UNC the last two years. You saw it in the Wake Forest, Florida State, Maryland and Boston College losses this season(only 4 losses all year).

With that said I am rooting for Villanova. They are the underdog and that is a big reason why my rooting interest will be with them. I think it will be more fun that way because I think UNC could dominate and if they do I will be right back behind them in the BIG game. Finally I gotta go with the local team when it’s close like this for me.

What do you think?

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April 4, 2009