Usually right after the season ends, fans immediately think about the off-season and what their team can do to improve for next year. This year, that’s not exactly what has been on the minds of Phillies fans. I’m not going to start speculating on off-season moves just yet, but I do want to take a look at the state of the players on our team just to get a baseline of where we are and what new GM Ruben Amaro has on his plate. Below you will find a list of players and what their contract status is for next year. The year in parentheses is the final year the Phillies have control of the player.
Near Minimum
- Carlos Ruiz, C (2012)
- J.A. Happ, SP (2013)
Arbitration Eligible
- Ryan Howard, 1B (2011)
- Shane Victorino, CF (2011)
- Jayson Werth, RF (2009)
- Joe Blanton, SP (2010)
- Ryan Madson, RP (2009)
- Chad Durbin, RP (2010)
- Eric Bruntlett, Bench (2010)
- Greg Dobbs, Bench (2011)
Potentially Arbitration Eligible (”Super Two” Rule)
- Cole Hamels, SP (2012)
- Chris Coste, Bench (2012)
Signed
- Chase Utley, 2B (2013)
- Jimmy Rollins, SS (2010, with 2011 club option)
- Pedro Feliz, 3B (2009, with 2010 club option)
- Brett Myers (2009)
- Brad Lidge (2011)
- J.C. Romero (2010, 2011 club option)
- Geoff Jenkins, Bench (2009, 2010 mutual option)
- Matt Stairs, Bench (2009)
Free Agents
- Pat Burrell, LF
- Jamie Moyer, SP
- Scott Eyre, RP
- Tom Gordon, RP (option declined)
- So Taguchi, Bench (option declined)
- Rudy Seanez, RP
Under contract, but unlikely to make 25-man roster
- Adam Eaton, SP (2009)
- Kyle Kendrick, SP (2013)
This is very basic information, but there are a couple things to take away:
- The core of this team (Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, Lidge) are all under contract for at least the next 3 seasons. After his 2nd half performance, you might even add Victorino to that list. Furthermore, all of these guys, with the possibly exception of Lidge, will be in their prime years and not likely to decline until after their contracts run out.
- For next season, we have 20 players under contract that will certainly be on the opening day roster. That leaves 5 open spots: Starting OF, Starting Pitcher, 1 Bench Player, 2 Relievers. We’ll discuss these later.
- Both Jayson Werth and Ryan Madson will be free agents following next season, and if they both continue their solid play, there will be some talk about re-signing them in the middle of the season.
{ 31 comments… read them below or add one }
Looks like Amaro inherits the tough job of keeping together this talented of a nucleus. I don’t think he’ll resign Howard but do think he’ll resign Hamels. If the Phillies were going to sign Howard to a long term deal they would have done so already. Like Pete said we have 3 years with this group. Under that context it might be wise to resign Burrell even if his skills are diminishing. If it took a 3 year deal to sign him then at least you have a good chance the next 3 years. Burrell and Manny are the only right-handed outfielders that can hit and Manny aint coming here. After that it’s Gabe Kapler or Rocco Baldelli. The market is thin.
I’m not really familiar with the “Super Two” rule so I just did some research and came across this, courtsey MLB.com:
“a player can be classified as a “Super Two” and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.”
Based on that I would think Cole would qualify and the Phillies would owe him A LOT of money. I would guess he is in the top 17% of his class for Major League Service.
Does anyone else have additional info regarding this issue?
Lastly, I’ve heard rumors that the Rockies are shopping Matt Holliday around. Though it’s a reach, I would love to see the Phillies make a run at him rather than Pat Burrell.
Jesse-
Almost 100% positive Hamels will be a super 2.
With all the arbitration and increasing yearly salary for contracted players, the Phillies payroll will be at $100 million before they sign a single additional player.
Jesse…There are two things with Holliday. One is what will we have to give up to get him. The second is the he will be a free agent after next year, he is looking for big money, and he is a Scott Boras client. If the Phils intend on signing him for a few years it might be ok to give up some value for him.
I think a lot will depend on what outfielders the Phils think they have in the minors and when they might be ready to step in. Golson doesn’t appear to be ready yet, but maybe he, or someone else, will be ready in 2010. In that case, if the Rockies aren’t demanding too much in return, it would be worth it to get Holliday just for 2009.
One thing of interest, even though it’s out on a fantasy limb is that the Rockies are also shopping Garrett Atkins. In fact, they might even be shopping them as a package. According to yesterday’s Rocky Mountain news, the Phillies (along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, and Mets) have shown interest in Holliday and Atkins. I have seen rumors of this on sportsline.com and mlbtraderumors.com as well.
That adds a whole new twist to your simple suggestion, doesn’t it. Atkins played his college ball with Utley at UCLA and would be under team control for 2009 and 2010. Atkins also plays first base (should things go nowhere with Howard). As long as they plan on keeping one of them long term, it might be worth it to make the deal for both of them.
Don’t really want Holliday unless we can get him cheap. He has bad splits away from Coors Field.
An outfield option for 2010 might be Michael Taylor. (Greg Golson will never be an everyday player).
Taylor was a huge prospect in HS, but didnt play as well as some scouts had hoped at Stanford, the Phils took him in 5th round in 2007.
He absolutely tore up single-A this year in both low-A and advanced-A. his final numbers were: .346 BA, 19 HR, 88 RBI, .968 OPS, 15 SB in 132 games.
He will likely start the year in double-A reading next year, and if he continues to play well, he could be in the picture on Opening Day 2010 when he’s 24 years old.
After the season, baseball america ranked him as the 10th best prospect in the Florida State League.
Don’t resign Burrell. Dobbs, Jenkins and Brunlett can take up the slack. Use the money to sign Hamels to a 5 or 6 year deal and try to sign Howard, Werth, Victorino and Madson to long term contracts. Sign Moyer for another year, Blanton for 3 yrs and Eyre for 2yrs. Put Happ in the bull-pen, make Kendrick your 5th starter and you can bring Carrasco up if needed.
JS31-
Thanks for commenting.
That’s a whole lot of money you just threw around there! not sure all that will happen in one offseason.
The only I really disagree with in your comment is I think Happ absolutely should be given one of the rotation spots and Kendrick, unless he comes up with a change-up, should be traded or sent to AAA.
I don’t think we need Holliday, but if he can be had without giving up Carrasco, we have to seriously give it a look. The price to keep him is going to be up near 20M a year, which is a new frontier for this organization. I can’t say he’s not worth it (the splits away from Coors is one thing, but he’d be coming to the Bank), but I don’t know if the Phillies have the guts to go there. He’d be a great add. And if it means not being able to afford Howard when that time comes, so be it. We have to strike while the iron’s hot, and a mishmash in leftfield, with or without Burrell is just plain ugly. I’d rather go get a pitcher than re-sign Burrell, if Holliday isn’t gettable. The Mets won’t choke every year, we have to keep getting better.
Not big on Colorado guys [Bichette,Castilla,Galarraga] all were a third less player away from Cores field.Would like Burrel back but if not, and management feels Werth could hit in the 5 spot then I would love to get a centerfielder [Cameron?] and put Werth in left and Victorino!s cannon in right.
I believe the brewers picked up Cameron’s option.
They could always sign a lefty OF like Raul Ibanez or somebody like that but I doubt they would make themselves more lefty heavy than they already are.
I’m on the fence about resigning Burrell or signing a guy like Kapler or Baldelli to platoon with Jenkins-Dobbs- Stairs.
If they go the platoon route they need to invest the savings in pitching such as Lowe or Fuentes
If we lost Burrell and gained Lowe I would love that; in fact lets do it. Sign a right handed bat to platoon in left with Jenkins and add a money picture [Lowe]. It can be a lower level guy [J.Michaels type].
I didn!t just say picture did I? what a knucklehead!!!
Suede & bball…Lowe would be nice to get. If we could sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal it would be a boost to our rotation.
Adding a starter would provide insurance should someone sustain an injury. This is no small concern either. We were very lucky in that regard this year. We just went through an entire season with very few injuries to pitchers. I don’t recall a starter missing a start due to injury. Eaton was exiled and Kendrick was demoted, but the rest of them took the mound every 5th day for the entire season (even Myers who was sent down and brought back up). It’s difficult to see that happening again next year, so adding a starter would be a plus there.
(As an aside, we really had no injuries in the bullpen either. We lost Gordon, and Seanez missed some time with a back issue, that’s it. Every other reliever pitched the entire season and made a lot of appearances.)
Anyway, back to Lowe. One last benefit to adding another starter is that it will allow more time for our minor league pitching prospects to develop.
Apparently Amaro is making pitching a priority…
“As for the biggest issue facing him, Amaro said, “It continues to be pitching. I think it’s important for us to solidify our rotation. We won with pitching this year. We were a team built on offense, but we tweaked it enough to get to the point where pitching became the thing that carried us. If you were to ask . . . if pitching would be the thing that would carry us, probably we wouldn’t have been that sure. We probably would have to bang them to win. But we know that it’s the same deal – you’ve got to have pitching to win this thing.”
…so I’m thinking we will see some activity on this front.
I come to read some Sixer opinions and I get all the questions I had in the back of my head, about the Phils, answered. Awesome. I look forward to your thoughts on relievers.
My main concern regarding Burrell is to not get sentimental and allow emotions to enter into it. I do not want to see us repeat what we did after our world series run in ‘93. We decided to keep Dykstra and Daulton, giving each of them a nice contract and it came back to bite us.
Burrell was a big part of what we just accomplished. He deserves credit for hanging tough through some bad years and tough times. It was great to see him come through the other side and win a title with us. It would be nice to see him play his entire career with the Phils. That said, we simply cannot overpay him, specifically in regard to years. This is especially true if we have any hope of keeping Hamels and/or Howard long term.
BTW, when we were talking about Lowe yesterday, I forgot to mention that he is also a Boras client, which could complicate matters for us.
Is anyone else terrified of the additional innings Hamels pitched this year? The guy keeps himself in great shape but I still fear an injury next year after such an increased workload.
bski-
we need to look at what the Red Sox did in 2004, which was exactly what you said, not get sentimental. They let Pedro and Lowe go, kept their young players, and then made a bold move for Beckett. Essentially, don’t act as though you just won the series, act as though you didn’t.
On Lowe: He would be my #1 target if I am the Phillies, but we will not get him because he likely wants 4 years, and the Red Sox will be involved.
Adam-
Agreed. The magic number where injury concerns arise is 30 more IP than the prior year. If you include the playoffs, Hamels pitched 79.1 more IP this season than last. I would be very surprised if he doesn’t land on the DL at some point next year.
I have always wondered why Dobbs hasn’t been given the nod to start in right field. He is the lefty bat that compliments Werth in right field. He showed he is a great pinch hit guy, but how about an everyday guy? I think it is worth a shot than to deplete our minor leagues going after a guy for 1 year like Holliday. Jenkins stinks and I would rather trade him than keep him on the bench. Werth is developing enough to be the power right handed bat that Pat was and can fill that role.
Sorry, meant to say Werth in left field.
Pete Re Hamels, last year’s health was anomalous. Landing on DL would be back to his old form, and not necessarily attributable to ‘08 increased workload. ”30 more innings pitched” escalates risk … is that Marcus Welby’s, Dr. Quinn’s (Medicine Woman) or Doogie Howser’s estimate?
Pete, yeah it’s tough but this is a business. You’ve always got to be looking forward.
Adam, I’m terrified. Yesterday, I posted about the fact that our entire pitching staff went through the season with just a couple of injuries. I really don’t see us being that lucky again next year. That’s why I’m glad to hear Amaro say that pitching is the number one priority. The more depth we can add, the better because I have a feeling we may need it.
J Dubbz, I’m ok with Werth taking over Burrell’s spot, but I am glad to hear Manuel say that they will still need another right handed bat, because they do.
I have been hearing talk about needing to replace Burrell’s power numbers. I’m really not too hung up on that. I think what we need is a run producing right handed bat, however that run production is accomplished.
I believe that most of us at one time or another have lamented the fact that most of the Phils runs come via the long ball and that we struggle to score when we do not hit homeruns. I would be perfectly fine, in fact I think I would actually prefer, if we got a right handed hitter that hits for average and isn’t prone to prolonged slumps. This could go a long way toward helping us score runs more consistently.
J Dubbz…I forgot. About Dobbs. It sounds like the Phils might be considering having him play left field. Check out this tidbit:
“Although he has spent most of the last two seasons playing third base, Manuel and coach Davey Lopes both feel his best defensive position is leftfield. Although Manuel and Amaro both said they’d view him as a platoon player, that’s how Jayson Werth began the season as well.
“I would probably view him as more of a platoon guy,” Amaro said. “But if a guy is playing well – Werth is a perfect example – Charlie will let him play every day if he earns it. [Dobbs] has made himself a pretty good player and a pretty good hitter and if he continues to improve in the outfield, he can be a solid outfielder, too.”
There are a few things I don’t like about this though. Dobbs is another left handed bat. Also, I’m not too big on platoon situations. With whom would he be platooning? Jenkins? How would that work? A lesser concern is that our bench takes a hit and we lose our best pinch hitter, who also happens to be one of the best in the game.
If we could add a solid right handed hitter as a 4th outfielder who could platoon in left field, give Werth and Victorino a day off here and there, and be able to step in in case of injury, then I guess I’d be ok with it. I’m still kind of iffy though.
jjg -
30 innings is a measure used by many scouts and GMs to show an increased injury risk. They’ve done studies and that seems to be the point where the risk goes up the most. Here’s a quote from a Tom Verducci article on the subject:
“For example, let’s look at the YAE (Year After Effect) for the Class of 2005, the young pitchers who were pushed beyond the 30-inning threshold that season: Matt Cain (+33.1 innings at age 20), Francisco Liriano (+34.2 at 21), Gustavo Chacin (+35.2 at 24), Zach Duke (+44.1 at 22), Scott Kazmir (+51.2 at 21) and Paul Maholm (+98.1 at 23). Liriano (elbow), Chacin (elbow) and Kazmir (shoulder) all suffered significant injuries. Cain (+1.82), Duke (+2.66) and Maholm (+2.58) all saw dramatic rises in their ERAs.”
entire article here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/11/28/pitchers/index.html
This is why I predicted (correctly) that Fausto Carmona would get hurt this year and hurt the Indians.
Hamels has a pretty steady and non-violent delivery, so I could see him bucking the trend (and is a trend, not a certainty)
No sobs for Greg Dobbs. Is no Roy Hobbs. Keep him doin’ what he does best – pinch-hitting. His everyday playing would dilute Phillies.
Pete Thanks for article forwarding. Interesting read. I remain a skeptic though as I think, if time allowed for such focused endeavor, you could find examples aplenty to counter Verducci’s position. Agree about Hamel’s delivery. And 2 months of rest along with a fit physique should work to his favor for ‘09.
JJG…You and I have already had this discussion about increased workloads for pitchers a couple months ago. I don’t want to get into the whole thing again, but I will bring up the poster child for this topic: Mark Prior. He is not on Pete’s list, but he belongs there as well.
Another reason to bring up Prior is the mention of Hamels’ delivery. Prior was hailed as having the smoothest, most fluid, effortless delivery. For that very reason, it was said that it was unlikely that he would sustain an injury. That is of course until his innings pitched literally doubled from 116 2/3 in 2002 to 234 1/3 (211 1/3 regular season & 23 post season)….and he got injured, over and over again. He last pitched in the league in 2006.
Hamels’ smooth, non-violent delivery notwithstanding, he is definitely at an increased risk of injury next year due to his increased workload.
YO Pete,
Not a single Pat Gillick column? Can we get a GM roundup on the Phillies. Who deserves the credit for the 2008 World Series talent, what role did Gillick play? 80% ? Let’s get a Recliner GM take on our former GM.
Thanks, Mike
espn just announced the National League gold glove winners. Victorino and Rollins each won one. Here’s the link to the article.
bski Prior, a good example of the ‘overtime’ syndrome. Call me superstitious, but I attribute injury to the metaphysical realm. As for Hamels, wanna bet a kidney?
JJG...I’d have no problem doing it but for the fact that I have already wagered one with CC. I don’t think it’s in my best interest to put both of my kidneys on the line. Even I have my limits. Besides, like Pete said, we are talking about a trend, not a certainty.
bski Your prudent choice is registered. Now quit being so trendy.