Multiple outlets are reporting that the mystery pitcher the Phillies signed is indeed Danys Baez. The contract is for 2 years, and pending a physical. Terms of the deal have not been disclosed.
Baez is a nice pitcher, he sported a 4.02 ERA and impressive 1.13 WHIP while pitching in the AL East. He pitched 71 innings, and only Ryan Madson pitched more than 70 innings for us last season. He also has closing experience with 114 career saves. So, he’s a nice pitcher. But was the signing really necessary? I have 3 issues with the signing.
- Why 2 years? Who else was offering him a 2nd year? Why couldn’t we give him what we gave Chan Ho Park last year (1 year, $2.5 million)?
- Why is he better than Park, or Eyre, or even in house guys like Scott Mathieson? Or is he really better than guys who would have signed a 1-year deal? Was Park really asking for that much more? Pat Gillick was great at finding guys like Chad Durbin on the cheap, is Ruben capable of doing this?
- Why not spend this money on a 5th starter to compete with Jamie Moyer (47, and coming off three off-season surgeries) and Kyle Kendrick (horrible in his last full season as a starter)?
I think that Ruben has done a lot of great things in his short tenure, but one thing I don’t like is his tendency to give players an extra year on their contract and also his inability to make smaller, equally impactful moves. This is something to watch with him moving forward.
Let’s talk about Baez though, because he’s not a bad addition, and who knows how he will pitch in 2010.
Some 2009 Baez stats, some good, some bad…
- Taking away his struggles against the Yankees and Red Sox (10 ER in 13 IP), he had a 3.37 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP last year. This bodes well for the regular season. Not so much if we face the Red Sox or Yankees in the series.
- Among relievers with 70+ IP last season (there were 49), he ranked 11th in WHIP (right behind Phil Hughes and Brandon Lyon), 16th in H/9, 12th in BB/9, but also ranked 36th in ERA, 40th in HR/9 and 48th in K/9. His WHIP infers his ERA should be better, but it seems like it’s not because he gives up some HR and doesn’t really get many K’s. His ERA also suffered from 2 horrid outings (see next bullet).
- Gave up 0 runs in 41 of his 59 appearances. Had 2 horrible outings (0.2 IP, 9 ER combined) that killed his total ERA. ERA was 2.92 in his other 57 appearances.
- One of 27 relievers with at least 6 losses last season.
- His home/road splits are alarmingly different. Had a 1.73 ERA at home and 7.20 ERA on the road. However, this is the first year of his career that this has happened, so I don’t think it’s indicative of him having bad nerves on the road or anything.
- One final thing that might have a big deal to do with why we signed him. Baez starting throwing a split-finger a lot more in 2009 (more on this below), as a result, his Ground Ball / Fly Ball ratio was 1.58, the 7th best in all of baseball for relievers with 60+ IP.
So there you have it – some positive stuff, some negative stuff. One other thing to note is that Baez had elbow surgery that caused him to miss 2008, and he pitched better in 2009 as the year went on and his elbow (presumably) got stronger. His ERA in the 2nd half of the year was 3.62.
The next thing I want to look at is what kind of “stuff” does Baez have? As always, we turn to FanGraphs for these stats…
- He is pretty much a two-pitch pitcher. He throws his fastball 71% of time at 93.3 mph, and a split finger 23% of the time at 90.0 mph. He will occasionally throw a curve-ball in there, 6% of the time, at 78.8 mph. Before 2009, he never threw the split-finger more than 8.8% of the time. Only Jose Valverde throws a split finger more often, and no one threw it as hard as Baez did.
- His fastball had a very good rating in terms of efficiency. 27th out of 145 relievers. Brad Lidge was dead last in 2009 in fastball value, by the way. Only 9 pitchers threw a split-finger more than 10% of the time, so it’s hard to rate that pitch for Baez, though it has above average value.
Well, I think that is everything you could possibly want to know about Baez. After doing some research on him, I feel a little better about the signing than I did originally. His GB/FB ratio must have a played a big part in his signing and hopefully he can keep it up in 2010. He throws hard and is a decent back-up for Lidge as a closer. Hopefully when the dollar amount of the contract is revealed, it’s nothing ridiculous.
There is one noteworthy point on Baez raised in a blog by Roch Kobatko of MASN Sports. Although Baez did throw 70+ innings last year, he was not available on back-to-back nights. This will surely limit his utility to Phillies if he is regularly unavailable.
I agree with you in that Baez is a nice addition, but why 2 years and why not Park? Perhaps being another year removed from his elbow reconstruction will have a positive impact on his availability.
In closing, anyone that doesn’t think adding a year onto a contract is significant, just take a look at the 2010 salaries of Cliff Lee and Jamie Moyer.
Why in the world are we willing to give this guy a 2 year deal and only offer Eyre a minor league deal?? Can someone please explain this one? Eyre was a cornerstone of our bullpen this past year. This will be a very interesting year for our bullpen!
JD,
Maybe it’s because Eyre made it publicly known that he will either play for the Phillies or retire. Why bid against yourself like Amaro did last year with Moyer…
JD,
I imagine that Rube is comfortable with Romero, Bastardo and Escalona as lefty options in the bullpen. A 4th lefty might be overkill.
Baez blah…not happy about the signing. Mostly for the reasons your stated, 2years, other options, 5th starter etc. I guess I’ll wait to see the amount before making a full opinion but something about it reminds me of the old phils (the ones that always won about 80 games a year). Nevertheless, our bullpen will come to down to the health of Romero and the rebound of Lidge.
I don’t think Eyres should be punished for saying that he only wants to play for the Phillies!! If I had a choice of a rookie or Eyres, I think I’d take the experienced and reliable pitcher. I’ve been a fan of just about everything that Ruben has done up to this point, but the bullpen still looks shaky to me. I guess well just have to wait and see.
a Phillies note that isn’t really post-worthy, but is comment-worthy.
“Miguel Nunez, a 6-6 righthander from the Dominican Republic agreed to a $220,000 signing bonus shortly before Christmas.”
I love all international signings. Last year’s big signing, Domingo Santana, had a great start to his professional career, we’ll have to see what Nunez can do.
another side note: Baez is Cuban – does anyone know the last Cuban player we had?
It seems to me the Phillies are targeting young pitching prospects with Halladay’s size. Both Aumont and Nunez are at least 6’6″. There aren’t a lot of pitchers that big and the Phils just picked up two. Just saying…
Baez contract: 2 years, $5.25 million.
Very reasonable considering the absurd Brandon Lyon 3 year, $15 mill contract.
Not too unhappy about the 2nd year anymore.
That’s comparable to what Park made last year. Hopefully, he can play about as good for us.
Pretty low risk moderate reward signing.