It’s a little strange that one of the best pitchers in the history of the game will be suiting up and taking the mound for us tonight. It’s just as strange that despite his pedigree, no one really knows what to expect.
I usually have ways of breaking down numbers and figuring out what we should expect, but in this case, I have no idea. Despite his unspectacular minor league starts, he did show that he still has the stuff to pitch in the majors (9 hits and 16 K in 12.1 IP). The minor league starts also showed that he might be prone to the longball, which would be disasterous if the wind is blowing out tonight.
So for this – I’m just going off instinct (fancy word for guessing). I don’t see him going deep into the game, and it would be great if he could get through 6 full innings. I also think he’ll give up at least 1 longball – hopefully with no one on base. I think he’ll strike out about a batter an inning because his change-up still works. My final guess? 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, and the Phils get to Samardzija for the win.
What do YOU guys think will happen tonight? Let’s get some predictions down on paper in the comments field and see who comes closest.
hopefully we can see the old pedro, if we get 6 strong out of him with a realistic 3 ER from him i think we should in. i see us hitting #83 from the irish tonight. but in the end it really dosent matter what pedro does unless Howard, Utley an Ibanez break out of their dog days of august slump. and as goes moyer. i mean hey we should take care of him cause of the two big wins he had last year but, were in the middle of a race that got a whole lot tighter becuase of his outings, so pedro deservers his chance. for all we know this could inspire moyer and who knows? maybe pedro sucks it up and moyer has his spot back. but as for pedro i see 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K….. in the win for pedro
The Cubs are starting to hit and I don’t think this will be the easiest of first starts for Pedro. But it’ll be a good test. In the minors he had a good K/BB and I think that will continue however I just have a feeling that he’s gonna lose it in the 4th or 5th inning. I don’t see him pitching many innings in his starts especially his first. Although I think he’ll show flashes of what he’s capable of in the first few innings.
My Pedro line: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
I think he comes out and throws a good game, he always pitched well under the pressure. He knows he is taking Jamie’s spot, he posts a 7 IP, 5H, 3ER, 2BB, 7K.
I’m such a homer though its really horrible..Haha..What’s with Jamie crying to the media too? I really lost some respect for him. If you don’t wanna be disruptful, you already did by what you said. Your gonna be 47 and do not give us a the best chance to win right now. I am really glad that Charlie and Ruben have finally stepped up and aren’t playing the “we have to give him the respect” card even though it might not be best for the team thing. That’s BS! That’s why Ryan Howard was two years late coming up! Good for them though, Jamie has 13 million tissues he can dry his eyes with too!
I hope Pedro can do something, but I don’t see him staying the sole 5th slot starter. I think Jamie and Pedro will be splitting starts. As for tonight 5 IP, 8 H, 4ER, 1 BB, 5 SO.
I’m hoping for better, but I’m expecting something close to bball’s line for Pedro.
I hope that Lidge’s blown save doesn’t bite us in the ass tonight. When it happened, the first thing I thought was thank god he’s healthy and feeling great because I can’t imagine how he’d be pitching otherwise. The second thing I thought was I hope he doesn’t lose the game for us. The third thing was that we have Pedro pitching tonight and that we’d most likely need 3-4 innings from the pen.
I’m figuring the end result is going to be a Moyer-like start and we will win if Pedro gets Moyer-like run support (good luck there, huh?), all of which will leave Moyer thinking that he could have done the same thing.
That “respect” thing got me too, Richie. I understand it to a point, but Moyer has been around and he should know better than that. I mean, it only goes so far.
Nobody plays the game forever. Everybody has to leave eventually and you have two choices. Either you leave on your own terms or, if you choose not to, you’ll be forced to leave on someone else’s terms. There is no other way around it. Moyer knows this too.
I said last week that how the Phils handled the Pedro situation (i.e. who got bumped from the rotation) might depend on how they are looking at the future (next year when Pedro isn’t around anymore). I said that if they decided to keep Moyer in the rotation, it might have more to do with the fact that he is under contract for next year and that they might not want to do anything disruptive that will affect that, whereas if they did bump Moyer it might be an indication that they are going to buy him out and move on without him next year. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Can’t imagine that Moyer will be thrilled about being pushed to the side now and then have the Phils tell him how much they’re counting on him and putting him back in the rotation next year.
Agreed Bski that’s a good point, I can’t see them asking him to come back to the rotation next year, but who will be in the rotation in his spot? Drabek? Park? Myers?
Richie -
It’s possible Myers returns on a 1-year deal to prove his worth as a starter and get his money the year after. His injury will make it tough for him to get a long term deal.
That’s option 1a for me. Option 2 would be to try out a bunch of major-league ready minor leaguers – Drabek, Bastardo and Carpenter – in spring training.
Option 3 would be Moyer.
I am expecting 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4K from Pedro. Hopefully the offense starts to get things together.
And as for Moyer, I think his crying to the media was a fricking joke. Even if the Phils did promise him he would be starting and something like this wouldn’t happen, things change. He was given the chance to start but he was inconsistent and just not good. We are trying to repeat as champions so why would the Phillies not do what is best for the team to win? If he wants to start, he just needs to pitch better. Simple as that.
For as much of a head case as Myers appears to be, I could see him agreeing to a 1-year deal and staying with us. Unlike Randy Wolf, who held out for and got 2 years from the Dodgers in 2006 and also spurned us a second time when he signed with the Padres in 2007, Myers seems to genuinely like being with the Phils.
My more immediate concern with regard to Myers is whether or not he’ll get to the point where he could replace Lidge as the closer. I didn’t mean to lay all the blame on him earlier because the offense was putrid, but he is still not coming around and I’m nowhere near optimistic that he will either. It’s almost mandatory that we have another option, IMO, because you just get the feeling that if we stick with Lidge it’s going to hurt us (quite possibly kill us) in the playoffs, don’t you?
bski -
Yes, Moyer should be behaving better, but I think Amaro deserves some blame, too. Let’s say you’ve got a class that’s not doing so well – do you blame the teachers or the students?
bski, I totally disagree with constantly moving players around to fill whatever holes you have. Now you wanna replace Lidge with Myers? What do you do with Lidge? Lidge, like Jamie Moyer, should be a good boy and do whatever Mr. Amaro and Mr. Manuel say?And if we’ve gotten to this point, isn’t this Amaro’s fault, too? Remember we talked about “Gillickball” before? One thing I learned from watching him at work for the past couple of years – he makes it so that players are given roles they know and want. Kendrick looked freakin’ depressed coming out of the bullpen in the SF series. Jamie is ‘itching and moaning.
I’ll even stick my neck out and say that signing Adam Eaton was a good move – Gillick stuck with his guns, with what he knew worked, and screw whatever everyone else thinks. And when that worked out horribly, and we asked Eaton to go to the ‘pen, he didn’t complain. Why? Eaton knew his role and it was made it extremely clear to him. Everyone else around him was doing his job except for him, how could he speak up? And why was everyone else doing their job? Because Gillick was very careful about the roles he put the players in. If it meant an Adam Eaton here, a So Taguchi there, and Geoff Jenkins in between, so be it – but Gillick got it done.
I don’t know, Zack. Sometimes the best laid plans blow up in your face, you know?
It’s hardly Amaro’s fault that Moyer is less effective this year, right? Maybe we can blame Amaro because he didn’t see it coming or because he signed him for 2 years (ok, we can definitely blame him for that) or because he should have held off on signing Pedro until after the deadline and we knew whether or not we had gotten Halladay or Lee and exactly what our pitching situation was (besides, nobody was swarming around Pedro threatening to scoop him up if we didn’t act quickly), but Moyer is solely responsible for his difficulties this year.
So, faced with this situation, what do you do? Do you say a deal is a deal, that we signed Moyer to be a starter in our rotation for 2 years and that we should be upstanding and forthright, honor the contract we signed him to, and send him out to the mound every 5th day regardless of the outcome?
Maybe Amaro didn’t deal with it as he should have or well as he could have, but he had to deal with it, didn’t he? Unfortunately, it’s part of the business. In the process of trying to do what’s right for the entire team, a GM might end up sticking it to one guy. It’s really no different from a player sticking it to a team in the process of trying to do what’s best for himself, however.
Same thing with Lidge. Do we again say a deal is a deal, you’ve got a 3-year contract so that makes you our closer without question? I don’t see Lidge’s mechanical/delivery issues as being Amaro’s fault either. I don’t want Myers to replace him as closer, and it doesn’t have to be Myers either. I just want a viable closer and it sure looks like Lidge won’t be that this year.
So again I ask, Amaro has got to do something, doesn’t he? I mean, Lidge was dominant in Houston, until he wasn’t anynmore. He remained with the Astros for two more seasons and then he was traded. He came here and was dominant again, but now he’s not. It could be that the same cycle is repeating itself. This is year one of struggling. What do we do now? Use him in the 7th or the 8th (or the 6th if necessary), see if he can get himself together next year, and, if not, then trade him and move on.
Both Moyer and Lidge were placed in roles. Now that doesn’t mean that they must remain in those roles forever, regardless of performance. It is specifically because they have not adequately filled those roles that those roles have now become holes. I agree with you that moving guys around to fill holes can cause problems, especially in Moyer’s case———–You can end up burning some bridges that can get you caught short in the future. That’s assuming that you intend to have a future with the player, of course———-but you’ve got to fill the holes, don’t you?
you cant…. you cant replace Lidge, he is the reason we won last year. you have to show him respect and ride him out.
“no-no”
You can not go around “respecting” players because of yesteryear. This is a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” sport. If you’re making a great living but not doing your job, you have to step aside. Last year was great but this year could be just as good. I appreciate the team’s accomplishments last year but the right now is more important.
Just kidding w/ the no-no. 5IP – 5ER
hope im wrong
Dear Comcast Sports Net,
If you are going to be talking constantly about Pedro’s fastball velocity – you might want to have, you know, the radar gun working. Thanks.
Love,
ReclinerGM
per MLB.com’s PitchFX – Pedro’s fastball velo is around 89 – hasn’t hit 90 yet.
just reared back for 92mph on that last fastball to Fox
Well there it is. Pedro’s final line: 5IP, 7H, 1BB, 5K, 3ER, 99 pitches (64 strikes), and a win. I thought he looked good early (actually through 4 innings), but he was laboring in the 5th. It seemed like 75-80 pitches was his limit tonight, but he was still able to battle through beyond that.
I’m interested to see how it goes with him. Will he get stronger as he gets more starts or will he wear down later in the season after 8 or 9 turns?
Oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention this. I’m watching the game on WGN and their radar gun had Pedro consistently at 88-89mph. Here and there he had a few at 91 and a couple at 93.
can’t say much for this start. he might have had some jitters. Umpire was VERY liberal with the strike zone for pedro, initially. Cubs are a good hitting team so no small accomplishment.
Pete: as far as velocity, it probably doesnt mean much with pedro. if he threw hard, he’d just tire out the way Randy Johnson is a Tim Lincecum for 4 innings and thats it.
point is he tried to hold it back to gain some control. good. his fastball tailed too but nothing to get overly excited about. overall we can say he’s at least better than moyer
CANT WAIT FOR LEE TOMORROW. LETS SWEEP ‘EM ACE!!
wow-
how is this for a breakout game for Michael Taylor in AAA…
5 for 5, hits for the cycle and extra double, 4 RBI and his HR was a game-tying variety in the bottom of the ninth.