I think we are all still in a little shock about the last week’s events. It seems like the Phillies were primed to make only a couple small moves before the start of the season, and then BAM! One of the most complicated and strange trades in baseball history lands Roy Halladay in Philly and Cliff Lee in Seattle.
I will get to a direct comparison of the two pitchers in another post, but let’s first familiarize ourselves with Doc and take a look at what type of pitcher he is, as we did with Lee last year, courtesy of FanGraphs. One thing that I won’t mention here, but is important to note when reading all this, is that Halladay has averaged 233 innings over the last 4 years, the highest in all of baseball.
Pitch Breakdown
Fastball – 31.7%, 92.6 mph average
Cut Fastball – 41.5%, 91.2 mph average
Curveball – 22.2%, 78.6 mph average
Change-Up – 4.6%, 85.4 mph average
So basically he just throws fastballs (73.2% of the time). I’ve heard hitters compare him to Mariano Rivera in that you know what is coming, you just can’t hit it. Before getting into the performance data on these pitches, here are a couple facts about his pitches…
- He throws the hardest cutter for a starter in baseball at 91.2 mph. Only Rivera throws one harder (91.3 mph in 2009, 92.6 mph for his career).
- His fastball is the 18th hardest among starters, tied with Matt Cain, and just above Tim Lincecum.
- Only Doug Davis (45.1%) throws a cutter more than Halladay among starters.
Pitch Value
FanGraphs also assigns a value to each player’s pitch based on its outcome. They also have swing and miss data for each pitch. Here is how Halladay’s numbers stack up. Since the actual values won’t make sense without context, I’ll focus on how he stacks up against other pitchers. These rankings are per pitch value, not total.
- He has the 12th best curveball in baseball (among starters who throw it at least 10% of the time). About the same value as A.J. Burnett’s curve.
- His has the 6th best cutter in baseball (among starters who throw it at least 15% of the time). Right behind Jon Lester on this pitch (and right ahead of J.A. Happ, by the way).
- His 4-seam fastball is above average, 33rd in baseball, but not elite. Right in between Kevin Millwood and Josh Beckett.
- His overall value, WAR (Wins over Replacement) was 4th in baseball last year, behind only Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum.
- In 2008, his ranks were better across the board with the 3rd best cutter, 3rd best curveball and 19th best fastball. His overall value was virtually the same though, as he was the 3rd ranked pitcher behind Sabathia and Lincecum.
So he’s got Josh Beckett’s fastball, Jon Lester’s cutter and A.J. Burnett’s curveball. Everyone cool with that? Good.
Comparison to Phillies
How do these pitches compare to those of the Phillies’ current starters? Both in terms of velocity and value? I’ll will include Lee, since I’m sure everyone is curious.
- He has the hardest fastball on the staff by far, 2nd best is Kendrick (ouch) at 90.8 mph. Lee was 91.0 mph.
- Both Lee and Happ threw a lot of cutters. Lee’s clocked in at 85.3 mph, Happ’s at 82.6 mph. Only 6 mph short.
- He will throw the most curve balls on our staff by far. About as many as Myers threw.
- His fastball value is behind Lee and Happ.
- His cutter and curve are obviously the best on the team, and both far better than Lee’s, value-wise.
So that’s it. Just a little overview to give you an idea of what kind of pitcher Halladay is.
Next up: Head-to-Head Comparison: Halladay vs. Lee
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FanGraphs is a great site. Thanks for the summary. I didn’t know his curve was so good.
Aside from his obvious success- the thing I enjoyed most about watching Lee was how he attacked hitters and worked quickly. No messing around, he just went after hitters. He pounded the edges of the strike zone. he also mixed his pitches as well or better than any Philly I can remember.
Of course these qualities are for the most part universal when you are talking top 10 pitchers. It implies a confidence in your stuff that most pitchers lack on a consistent basis.
tk76 -
You’ll be happy to know then that Halladay’s strike % (68.6%) is actually slightly better than Lee’s (68.2%)
I’ve also read articles that have likened Halladay’s cutter to Rivera’s. Gotta like that, right? Hope that means we will be the beneficiary of continued success, along with Rivera-like longevity, from Halladay over the next several years as a result.
KB-
Looks like the Phillies are taking our advice and looking at Mike MacDougal. ESPN Rumor Central says…
Matt Capps isn’t the only non-tendered closer drawing a ton of activity this week. Eight to 10 teams are actively pursuing Mike MacDougal, who was non-tendered by the Nationals last weekend, reports ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.
The Phillies — a team whose many moves this winter have yet to address their bullpen, which GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has said is their top priority — head that list, according to a source. Other teams believed to be in on MacDougal include the Orioles, Pirates, Cardinals, Mets and A’s.
I would just like to say to everyone *cough (WIP) cough (New York Media) cough* who at any time said that no major pitcher would ever come to a “bandbox” like Citizens Bank Park:
Why don’t you go stick this in your pipe and smoke it, suckers!
Amen Dan -
I seem to recall some hack over there that adamant that the Phillies would never with with Charlie Manuel at the helm too. Good station they’ve got going over there.
I’m glad I don’t listen to talk radio. (Or at least I don’t anymore now that Jody Mac, the one rational voice in the city, is gone)
Baseball Prospectus: Halladay took a biiiiiiiiig pay cut to come here – let’s always remember to show our appreciation:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9861
“Halladay’s contract is so far removed from his market value that it looks like an error. Remember, he had to approve not only the contract, but the trade to the Phillies that precipitated it. He made the choice that he wanted to be with the Phillies so much—and wanted to be with them immediately so much—that it was worth it to him to leave $60 million, $80 million, maybe $100 million unclaimed. There is no way anyone could have predicted this even a few weeks ago. This is the kind of decision that a player gets to make for himself and his family. Halladay gets to play for a contender in 2010 and gets to do so with a team he wishes to play for, one that holds spring training near his Florida home, and he valued those things more than the marginal dollars foregone by not testing the market. I don’t judge him for it, but I do think we should all be stunned by how much money this man left on the table. There is no precedent for it in sports.”
“marginal dollars”
I don’t know if I would categorize $60-$100 million “marginal.”
We got a good dude who clearly isn’t pitching for money. That is a seriously strong combination right there. Phillies’ opponents should be terrified right now by this.
The impact of this deal on future free agent dealings can’t be quantified, but I see it as a very influential hat tip to this organization.
It is rare that you see an athlete leave that much money on the table. Over the years, we’ve heard many of them talk the talk about how winning (and winning a championship) is more important to them than the money (usually just before they sign a big-money contract), but very few actually walk the walk. Not that I’m blaming them, since it certainly can’t be easy to knowingly turn away from millions.
We, the fans, are amazed by it and appreciate it. I’m sure there are many players that admire Halladay’s choice. I’m also sure that there are many others who are envious that they are not in the financial postion to make the same choice for themselves.
What I wonder is how many players out there, not to mention the players’ union, are disappointed that Halladay did not go through the free agent process (for the good of everyone) and raise the salary bar that much higher, thereby diminishing what they could get when their turn comes around?
bski, I’d argue that there are only so many Free Agent dollars to go around, and Halladay signing for less than full worth frees up more dollars for other players. If this is true, then they should all be happy he signed for less.
Whether Halladay left $20, $40, or $60 MM on the table, it is still a stunning move, which only proves how much he wants to be here in Philly.
Can’t say that I blame him. I’ve lived in other sports towns. Philly compares quite favorably in terms of passion and loyalty. The fact is that currently only the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox can boast of a better total organization than the Phillies. I cannot think of another NL team which compares to the stadium (a gem), fans (constant sellouts, passionate and knowledgable), coaching (consistent and good), and location (about 50% of Americans within easy driving distance) to Philadelphia. Overall this area has a lot to offer, and any well managed team can succede here. The amazing thing is that more pro athletes don’t realize this and beat a path to our doors.
Dannie, the term “marginal” does not refer to a small amount, but to the amount over and above the amount he actually did sign for. It basically means extra dollars.
Dan,
Could be. I was looking at it more from the rising-tide-lifts-all-boats viewpoint. I mean, baseball is very comparative-oriented when it comes to trying to put a dollar value on a player, whether through free agency or arbitration, you know?
Player A in question is superior to player B, player B earns X dollars, so player A should receive a higher salary. Most players end up leapfrogging each other when their turn comes around which slowly but surely increases salaries and pulls everybody else (even including the bench guys) up along the way.
Halladay didn’t leapfrog anybody with this deal, so the thought just crossed my mind is all.
If Roy Halladay throws less than 3 no hitters this year and less than 2 perfect games, I would have to say that this trade was a big disappointment.
“If Roy Halladay throws less than 3 no hitters this year and less than 2 perfect games, I would have to say that this trade was a big disappointment.”
Ha!
I caught an excerpt from Lee’s interview on ESPN, he sounded very upset about the trade and claimed that he didn’t shoot down an extension because of money, and really thought he was going to retire in Philly.
Sure, he might just be trying to get RAJ to regret and second guess it but, I really wish I hadn’t heard that. If Doc gets hurt and Lee blows them away in Seattle I’m going to cry.
Oh, and further amen to the WIP bashing. Philly talk radio (and probably all talk radio) is a joke an utterly unlistenable, in my opinion anyway. Those biased reactionaries never have anything original, thoughtful or intelligent to offer.
The straw that broke the camel’s back, for me, was when Missanelli tried to start a feud with Skip Bayless. Really? That’s what you’re going to waste your time on? A national guy none of your listeners have ever heard of or gave a damn about before you started giving him free advertising.
Poor Cliff Lee. I genuinely believe what he says about wanting to be in Philly long-term. I prefer him over Hamels even with the age difference.
I’d love to see the Phils at least entertain the idea of signing him next off-season if at all possible.
Chris McC-
I heard MMiss thought the Cliff Lee trade was horrible. He’s a smart cookie.
I became done with radio/tv/newspaper when Jonny Marzano went on a rant about how he was positive Bobby Abreu was not running hard around the bases because he didn’t want to get triples, he wanted to pad his doubles stats. And he was serious.
I read pretty much only national baseball writers, and then sites like fangraphs. I keep an eye on philly.com/sports for newsy stuff.
Dannie,
Would Cliff Lee want to come back here after what Amaro did to him, ie, trade him, imply he was unextendable and give his number to his replacement?
I’d love to have Lee back. Preferably at the deadline!
Dannie -
I feel bad for Lee. But we traded him to a team that could be very good, so I don’t feel awful.
I’m sure he came back with a counter offer, but Jon Heyman reported that Lee was not going to take a discount to stay in Philly – and there is NO WAY he comes down to where Halladay went.
I wish they had done this trade earlier so I could have asked for a jersey.
But if he wants to come down to that – I’m happy to offer him 3 years, $60 million in the offseason!
Tony – If we win the World Series or get back at least, yes, I think he would be open to coming back if we offered him something reasonable.
The question is would we even be capable of offering him something reasonable AND would his reasonable match up with what the Phillies consider reasonable.
Pete,
If the Phillies thought $9M was too much, what makes you think $20M is palatable?
Please don’t give me the prospects excuse for shipping out Lee in the first place. I don’t see a big difference between 2 high picks and the 3 prospects we got for Lee.
Tony-
I was pretty much kidding.
But – they did slightly raise ticket prices, so it’s feasible they could slightly raise payroll next year, especially if they make another run.
I put the odds at them signing Lee at about 1000-1
“I don’t see a big difference between 2 high picks and the 3 prospects we got for Lee.”
The difference is that the guys we got are draft picks that have panned out thus far. “Qualified” prospects, if you will. With draft picks, you run a much higher risk of them sucking. See Zach Collier and Anthony Hewitt for recent examples for the Phillies.
Furthermore, you are not guaranteed the draft picks. The Yankees signed Texiera, Sabathia and Burnett last year. Only the Angels got their 1st round pick. The others only got 1 supplemental pick and a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Pete,
That actually makes me feel better, LOL. I have no retort for that.
Pete,
When you do your Lee Vs Halladay comparison, can you include Lincecum since he and Halladay will probably be the 2 top contenders for next year’s NL Cy Young?
Pete, great point about the prospects. Throw Joe Savery in that example too. Hopefully he turns it around, but it seems like his ceiling is pretty low.
and Gavin %^$^%^# Floyd!
/still bitter he panned out and was traded for a dead arm
ahh…. i forgot all about floyd. thanks for reminding me……
<<Cliff Lee sounded like a truck had hit him.
He never saw it coming.
Lee, who the Phillies traded to the Mariners yesterday as part of the Roy Halladay blockbuster, spoke with Seattle reporters today in a conference call.
“At first I didn’t believe it,” Lee said. “I thought we were working out an extension with the Phillies. I thought I would spend the rest of my career there.”>>
That’s from Todd Zoelecki. or however he spells it.
I thought of a bad move Ruben made (we were discussing how great he’s been so far yesterday. I believe he brought Jack Trascher into the bullpen during spring training? I’m fuzzy on the details, obviously from the spelling, but I wanna say he was here early part of the year and uncerimoniously disappeared. Am I close on the details? Not to nitpick on Ruben.
Jody McDonald is still on the air. He hosts afternoons with Rob Dibble on XM, and is on WEPN at least Saturday and maybe Sunday mornings.
Scott Graham also does a nice job on XM, hosting mornings with new Jays play by play voice Buck Martinez.
In response to this from Dan…
<<The fact is that currently only the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox can boast of a better total organization than the Phillies. I cannot think of another NL team which compares to the stadium (a gem), fans (constant sellouts, passionate and knowledgable), coaching (consistent and good), and location (about 50% of Americans within easy driving distance) to Philadelphia. >>
There is so much subjectivity to it, and I think the Verducci piece a week ago saying the Phils are becoming the Yankees was nice, but I must say that the key to this is sustaining it long term. The Cardinal and Dodger organizations are also role models. Dodgers I know haven’t won in 20 years but still have helluva tradition, and St. Louis is just an awesome baseball town and organization, fitting all your descriptions above.
I take it everyone is aware we play at Toronto in late July. Weekend set. That oughta be awesome.
Mike MacDougal getting that much interest makes me wonder if he’d fit whatever is budgeted for the bullpen, but if you want to play for a winner in the National League, you know where to go.
Lastly, Happy Halladays to all. A freaking 2.79 ERA last year in the AL, despite a less than stellar 2nd half after he was stuck there. 9 CG, 4 shutouts. Awesome.
More evidence of Halladay greatness… http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/12/15/posnanski.halladay/index.html
And the Mets are going to win the Jason Bay derby, which will be good news for the Phils. Financially hindered for now, they will be sinking 5 years worth of funds to a non pitcher. Call it an educated guess.
I have a friend who I hold in very esteem for hi baseball knowledge and he is a die hard Mets fan. He hates the Jason Bay talk, and I don’t blame him. $65 million for a .265 hitter? Pass
Agreed on Bay. He’s a good player and had a great year last year. But he’s 31, and they don’t need a hitter, they need a #2 starter. The Red Sox offered him a fair deal, but he’s one of those guys that needs the extra year.
Not as ridiculous at Matt Holliday’s contract demands though.
From Jayson Stark:
Where Cliff Lee was misleading yesterday:For the Phillies, it wasn’t about the $. It was about the years. They were never going 5 or 6.
You guys aquired a great ball player and an even better person. Sad to see him go here in Toronto.
Just a few things. Most people who have followed Halladay knew he wasn’t going to try and break the bank in either money or years. He had already taken two “home town” discount contracts for the Jays. He has said that money is not his motivating factor.
Heres a little story from a few years ago that gives some insight into the man
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/443398
His contract is almost exactly what I have been telling people he would ask for, since trade talk emgered last year. Four years at $75,750,000-$6 million(4/$70) is a deal and a half for a pitcher of his calibre.
In regards to his being the leader in innings pitched. He is actually quite efficent and has never lead the league in pitches; sometimes falling outside the top 10 for any given year. I’m not sure what site it was on(fangraphs, HBT) but within the past month there was a great article written that showed how few pitches Halladay throws compared to the other top starters. Complete games for Halladay most often fall in the 80-100 pitch count; most pitchers reach that number in the 6-7th innings. Give Halladay weaker offenses in the NL and no Dh, just a gimmie in the 9 hole, his CG’s are going through the roof and his pitch counts will go down.
Have as much fun watching and cheering for him as I did for all these years; you’ll tell your grand kids about him one day.
Troy- Philly has also seen its share of great players go on to win other cities (Wilt, Reggie White and Curt Schilling come to mind.) I’m sort of glad you guys did not lose him solely for fanatical reasons- although money is part of why the AL East is an unfair division. I’m sure we are both glad he did not wind up a Yankee of Sox.
I’m sure Halladay will always be remembered as a Blue Jay, but equally hope he closes his career out with multiple rings
Interesting to see that Happ’s name in the pitch comparison combination. I cant claim to know nearly as much about crunching stats as a lot of the people who come around here, but from an unscientific gut perspective, i’ve always thought that he has a lot of potential. Keeps his cool, isn’t afraid to go after guys, efficient, and has pretty good stuff. Prone to the occasional big inning would be the biggest drawback i see, but has shown that he can battle back and settle in when he’s given enough rope. This year should tell us a lot about him.
Halladay sounds like hes as good as advertised. I dont watch many AL games, so it will be interesting to get a good look at him when the warm weather comes.
Its tough to see Cliff go, he was a real easy dude to root for. Totally understand the move from a business/team building perspective, but just from a fan perspective i really liked having him on the team.
Doh! my previous post should have said “pitch comparison conversation”. Not combination. my bad.
Troy, great point about pitches per inning as a more telling stat then innings pitched. Roy’s seasons have ended in September and although he has mileage from IP, it is great to know that his pitch counts have remained low. I love pitchers that throw complete games in under 100 pitches, reminds me of vintage Greg Maddux. Maybe Pete can weigh in on his pitch count stats, but I assumed that a guy that pounds the strike zone with such a small ERA will have his share of 6-8 pitch innings and am also curious about his propensity to stay away from the big inning.
I would also be curious about how Jake Peavy compares to Halladay. And I’m talking Jake Peavy of 2007, not 2009. Peavy always impressed me with his dominance and then he got hurt and hasn’t been the same since (is currently a big question mark with ChiSox). Maybe I am totally off base but is there any danger of Halladay falling off the wagon based on his pitching mechanics that would risk a fall from grace as Peavy experienced?
Duder,
I’ve had the same feeling about Happ. Just watching him pitch I get this – as you said – gut feeling that he’s going to be good. He’s been my favorite Phillie for the last 2 seasons (except for those four months where I was all about Lee).
I can not wait to watch him mature and become what I suspect will be a solid number two/three starter on a contender.
Happ is a good pitcher to have on a strong offensive team. He is reliable and keeps you in games. I don’t expect him to keep his ERA so low given all of the jams he gets into- but his ability to stay in games and eat innings is valuable. And with this teams offense he should continue to win a lot of games even if he is not dominant.
Can we expect an improvement from Happ with the acquisition of Halladay?
Since Halladay is probably the best starting fastball/cutter dominant pitcher in the league I would think good things would rub off him onto Happ who is also a fastball/cutter pitcher, albeit from the other side.
Hopefully he can learn how to not just improve his ability to throw that pitch but to mix it up better and attack hitters differently with it as to keep him out of more “jams” as TK referenced.
Bill James has Happ projected at a 4.31 ERA next year. I think he’s closer than some people might think.
One thing that no one has talked about is Halladay’s lack of postseason experience. Chances are that he’ll be fine, but it’s not guaranteed. At least with Lee we knew we had a guy who stepped it up when the stakes were highest.
Rich – It has been brought up, not at length on this site though.
I won’t speak for anyone else but I don’t see a concern at all. Instead of writing out all my thoughts on why, here are a few thoughts/questions just to get the conversation started on it.
Nothing is a guarantee. And while Lee did pitch awesome in his first postseason ever, what is also not guaranteed is the idea that he would pitch that way again this year for the Phillies.
Are you saying because Lee pitched that way last year it’s more of a guarantee he will pitch that way again the following year in general? More of a guarantee he would pitch better than Halladay would?
We have a perfect example of the contrary with Cole Hamels’ Jekyll and Hyde performance year over year in the playoffs/WS.
The Phillies picked up Jimmy Rollins’ 2011 option.
I didn’t know that options could be exercised so early like this. I always figured there was some sort of league rule or standard contract language that wouldn’t allow it until after the season immediately preceeding the option year has been completed or something like that.
I guess Amaro isn’t kidding about wanting as much cost certainty as possible going forward. Any day now, I’m expecting an announcement that he has locked in the price they will pay for hot dogs and buns for the next 5 years as well.
Pete: “Bill James has Happ projected at a 4.31 ERA next year. I think he’s closer than some people might think.”
When I read a bunch of people talking about Happ’s numbers are better than they should be, I did some digging to try to disprove them. Instead I became convinced that they are right. (See the raw #s at http://www.baseball-reference.com)
The only, and I do mean ONLY, way that Happ can reproduce his 2009 is if he is the only Major League Pitcher in history who pitches demonstratively and consistently better from the stretch than from the windup. I found a strong trend that all starters pitch better from the windup – basically no one I looked up was an exception. Except Happ. For the entire year with no one on he had an OPS against of .753 (about what Joe Blanton does all the time). With men on, it went down to .650 (about what Roy Halladay does all the time). With Runners in Scoring Position, it went down to .479 (Pedro Martinez in his prime did about .526 all the time)!!!
So, how likely is it that a guy pitches like Joe Blanton with no one on, Roy Halliday with runners on, and better the Pedro at his best with RISP? I’m thinking, not very.
There is just no precident for this. I couldn’t find a single example of a pitcher who was able to pitch better from the stretch than from the windup. Therefore 1) Happ will regress and pitch more like a 4.50 ERA guy next year, or 2) He found a way to pitch more effectively from the stretch than the windup and will continue to baffle hitters, pitching his way to a HOF career no one in this world predicted.
Can’t say as I’m concerned by Halladay’s lack of postseason experience. I mean, the guy’s got 11 years under his belt, so I don’t see him being overwhelmed, unable to control his emotions, having difficulty maintaining his focus, or anything else for that matter.
I’m pretty comfortable with his body of regular season work, and reasonably confident that he will be able to deliver at least that much for us come playoff time.
Enough with the numbers… J.A. Happ is a professional who just knows how to pitch.. some pitchers might not have the nastiest stuff but are just gamers… J.A. Happ is that and I know thats why hes my favorite player on the team
Chuck, I don’t deny that Happ knows how to pitch, but what I wonder is this: Why doesn’t he pitch like there are guys in scoring position all the time? If he did that, he would have an ERA of about 0.58.
I’m just askin’…
Thanks for the research, Dan. That Blanton-Halladay-Martinez comparison really puts things in perspective. This year should go a long way toward telling us where he will top out. Will the league catch up with him or will he take another step and be able to stay ahead? I like him (plus we need him), so I hope it’s the latter.
O no dan I know what you mean with your post, and I could understand why some may be worried about him next year with the way he had so many baserunners last year sorta reminecsent of Kendrick during his first year in the Majors. Heres the difference from my perspective.. who knows maybe im wrong but.. when Kendrick pitched I was always so nervous and was not suprised at all once he started struggling his second year always pitching from the stretch. I know my freinds and I think Happ just has that ummesaureable intagible that “it” factor where just seems to get the game and know how to make pitches. I feel very confident that happ will to contunie to quiet all of his doubters (including his own coaching staff for not starting him in the world series)
Chuck, I hope you are right, but the problem with your argument is that it is neither provable nor disprovable. You are arguing that you feel better about Happ than you did about Kendrick. Well, you are correct, I suppose, as far as that goes. However your feeling will likely have little impact on the outcome of the game.
Look at it not from numbers, but from psychology. I too feel great when Happ takes the mound. Indeed, why shouldn’t I? His first year he performed, and whenever the situation was high tension (i.e. RISP), he managed to deliver! That kind of positive feedback lead me to feel better and better about future performance. With such much positive feedback and very little negative feedback it is no wonder that you and I both feel good whenever he gets in trouble.
However you must admit that your feeling is not the cause of his performance, but rather it is caused by it. And you must admit that there is a chance that his performance is based in part on luck. And if you admit that, you must admit that your good feeling which result from watching him perform well in the clutch (RISP) could in part be based on luck. If you admit this, then you can start looking at objective proof that Happ is really good, rather than relying on your subjective feelings.
It is this honesty with myself which caused me to start digging to prove Happ was better than everyone was saying he really was. Unfortunately, I found that there is an incredibly good chance that his performance with RISP was largely due to luck (small sample size, no precidence for it in the history of baseball that I could find, etc). I then had to conclude that it is likely Happ will likely not reproduce his 2009 performance on a regular basis. If he does, I will have to revisit my conclusions, but I think any person analyzing the situation objectively would bu suprised if he does in fact do that.
I’m not ready to say that Happ will be an all star or even a 1 or 2 slot guy. I will say that whereas Kendrick is a guy whose success depends on keeping his pitches down and getting ground balls, Happ is a guy who has nice movement on his fastball and, as the numbers show, apparently a darn good cutter. He got into some jams, but on the other he pitched a few complete games, went deep into others(Kendrick was lucky to do a full 6), had a decent ERA(dont recall exact # offhand), and showed a good attitude. Its certainly possible that hitters catch up to him, but i’m interested to see how he does this year one way or the other. I’m cautiously optimistic.