Comments on: What Do We Have in Roy Halladay? http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/ Thu, 09 Feb 2012 03:41:10 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: ReclinerGM’s 2010 MLB Preview: Phillies Starting Rotation http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-28856 ReclinerGM’s 2010 MLB Preview: Phillies Starting Rotation Fri, 12 Mar 2010 21:17:08 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-28856 [...] featured 3 of the top offenses in baseball. Everything you want to know about Halladay can be found here and here. If you don’t know everything there is to know about him already, you probably [...] [...] featured 3 of the top offenses in baseball. Everything you want to know about Halladay can be found here and here. If you don’t know everything there is to know about him already, you probably [...]

]]> By: Duder http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25535 Duder Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:13:51 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25535 I'm not ready to say that Happ will be an all star or even a 1 or 2 slot guy.  I will say that whereas Kendrick is a guy whose success depends on keeping his pitches down and getting ground balls, Happ is a guy who has nice movement on his fastball and, as the numbers show, apparently a darn good cutter.  He got into some jams, but on the other he pitched a few complete games, went deep into others(Kendrick was lucky to do a full 6), had a decent ERA(dont recall exact # offhand), and showed a good attitude.  Its certainly possible that hitters catch up to him, but i'm interested to see how he does this year one way or the other.  I'm cautiously optimistic. I’m not ready to say that Happ will be an all star or even a 1 or 2 slot guy.  I will say that whereas Kendrick is a guy whose success depends on keeping his pitches down and getting ground balls, Happ is a guy who has nice movement on his fastball and, as the numbers show, apparently a darn good cutter.  He got into some jams, but on the other he pitched a few complete games, went deep into others(Kendrick was lucky to do a full 6), had a decent ERA(dont recall exact # offhand), and showed a good attitude.  Its certainly possible that hitters catch up to him, but i’m interested to see how he does this year one way or the other.  I’m cautiously optimistic.

]]> By: Head-To-Head Comparison: Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25531 Head-To-Head Comparison: Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:26:43 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25531 [...] now that we’ve discussed what kind of “stuff” Roy Halladay has, let’s look at performance, and specifically, let’s look at it in comparison to the man [...] [...] now that we’ve discussed what kind of “stuff” Roy Halladay has, let’s look at performance, and specifically, let’s look at it in comparison to the man [...]

]]> By: Dan http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25530 Dan Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:04:05 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25530 Chuck, I hope you are right, but the problem with your argument is that it is neither provable nor disprovable.  You are arguing that you feel better about Happ than you did about Kendrick.  Well, you are correct, I suppose, as far as that goes.  However your feeling will likely have little impact on the outcome of the game. Look at it not from numbers, but from psychology.  I too feel great when Happ takes the mound.  Indeed, why shouldn't I?  His first year he performed, and whenever the situation was high tension (i.e. RISP), he managed to deliver!  That kind of positive feedback lead me to feel better and better about future performance.  With such much positive feedback and very little negative feedback it is no wonder that you and I both feel good whenever he gets in trouble. However you must admit that <em>your feeling is not the cause of his performance</em>, but rather it is <em>caused by it</em>.  And you must admit that there is a <em>chance</em> that his performance is based in part on luck.  And if you admit that, you must admit that your good feeling which result from watching him perform well in the clutch (RISP) <em>could</em> in part be based on luck.  If you admit this, then you can start looking at objective proof that Happ is really good, rather than relying on your subjective feelings. It is this honesty with myself which caused me to start digging to prove Happ was better than everyone was saying he really was.  Unfortunately, I found that there is an incredibly good chance that his performance with RISP was largely due to luck (small sample size, no precidence for it in the history of baseball that I could find, etc).  I then had to conclude that it is likely Happ will likely not reproduce his 2009 performance on a regular basis.  If he does, I will have to revisit my conclusions, but I think any person analyzing the situation objectively would bu suprised if he does in fact do that. Chuck, I hope you are right, but the problem with your argument is that it is neither provable nor disprovable.  You are arguing that you feel better about Happ than you did about Kendrick.  Well, you are correct, I suppose, as far as that goes.  However your feeling will likely have little impact on the outcome of the game.

Look at it not from numbers, but from psychology.  I too feel great when Happ takes the mound.  Indeed, why shouldn’t I?  His first year he performed, and whenever the situation was high tension (i.e. RISP), he managed to deliver!  That kind of positive feedback lead me to feel better and better about future performance.  With such much positive feedback and very little negative feedback it is no wonder that you and I both feel good whenever he gets in trouble.

However you must admit that your feeling is not the cause of his performance, but rather it is caused by it.  And you must admit that there is a chance that his performance is based in part on luck.  And if you admit that, you must admit that your good feeling which result from watching him perform well in the clutch (RISP) could in part be based on luck.  If you admit this, then you can start looking at objective proof that Happ is really good, rather than relying on your subjective feelings.

It is this honesty with myself which caused me to start digging to prove Happ was better than everyone was saying he really was.  Unfortunately, I found that there is an incredibly good chance that his performance with RISP was largely due to luck (small sample size, no precidence for it in the history of baseball that I could find, etc).  I then had to conclude that it is likely Happ will likely not reproduce his 2009 performance on a regular basis.  If he does, I will have to revisit my conclusions, but I think any person analyzing the situation objectively would bu suprised if he does in fact do that.

]]> By: Chuck http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25529 Chuck Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:52:03 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25529 O no dan I know what you mean with your post, and I could understand why some may be worried about him next year with the way he had so many baserunners last year sorta reminecsent of Kendrick during his first year in the Majors. Heres the difference from my perspective.. who knows maybe im wrong but.. when Kendrick pitched I was always so nervous and was not suprised at all once he started struggling his second year always pitching from the stretch. I know my freinds and I think Happ just has that ummesaureable intagible that "it" factor where just seems to get the game and know how to make pitches. I feel very confident that happ will to contunie to quiet all of his doubters (including his own coaching staff for not starting him in the world series) O no dan I know what you mean with your post, and I could understand why some may be worried about him next year with the way he had so many baserunners last year sorta reminecsent of Kendrick during his first year in the Majors. Heres the difference from my perspective.. who knows maybe im wrong but.. when Kendrick pitched I was always so nervous and was not suprised at all once he started struggling his second year always pitching from the stretch. I know my freinds and I think Happ just has that ummesaureable intagible that “it” factor where just seems to get the game and know how to make pitches. I feel very confident that happ will to contunie to quiet all of his doubters (including his own coaching staff for not starting him in the world series)

]]> By: bski http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25528 bski Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:38:33 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25528 Thanks for the research, Dan.  That Blanton-Halladay-Martinez comparison really puts things in perspective.  This year should go a long way toward telling us where he will top out.  Will the league catch up with him or will he take another step and be able to stay ahead?  I like him (plus we need him), so I hope it's the latter. Thanks for the research, Dan.  That Blanton-Halladay-Martinez comparison really puts things in perspective.  This year should go a long way toward telling us where he will top out.  Will the league catch up with him or will he take another step and be able to stay ahead?  I like him (plus we need him), so I hope it’s the latter.

]]> By: Dan http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25527 Dan Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:35:08 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25527 Chuck, I don't deny that Happ knows how to pitch, but what I wonder is this:  Why doesn't he pitch like there are guys in scoring position all the time?  If he did that, he would have an ERA of about 0.58.  I'm just askin'... Chuck, I don’t deny that Happ knows how to pitch, but what I wonder is this:  Why doesn’t he pitch like there are guys in scoring position all the time?  If he did that, he would have an ERA of about 0.58. 

I’m just askin’…

]]> By: Chuck http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25526 Chuck Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:26:34 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25526 Enough with the numbers... J.A. Happ is a professional who just knows how to pitch.. some pitchers might not have the nastiest stuff but are just gamers... J.A. Happ is that and I know thats why hes my favorite player on the team Enough with the numbers… J.A. Happ is a professional who just knows how to pitch.. some pitchers might not have the nastiest stuff but are just gamers… J.A. Happ is that and I know thats why hes my favorite player on the team

]]> By: bski http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25525 bski Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:11:17 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25525 Can't say as I'm concerned by Halladay's lack of postseason experience.  I mean, the guy's got 11 years under his belt, so I don't see him being overwhelmed, unable to control his emotions, having difficulty maintaining his focus, or anything else for that matter. I'm pretty comfortable with his body of regular season work, and reasonably confident that he will be able to deliver at least that much for us come playoff time.   Can’t say as I’m concerned by Halladay’s lack of postseason experience.  I mean, the guy’s got 11 years under his belt, so I don’t see him being overwhelmed, unable to control his emotions, having difficulty maintaining his focus, or anything else for that matter.

I’m pretty comfortable with his body of regular season work, and reasonably confident that he will be able to deliver at least that much for us come playoff time.  

]]> By: Dan http://www.reclinergm.com/what-do-we-have-in-roy-halladay/#comment-25524 Dan Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:05:36 +0000 http://www.reclinergm.com/?p=8669#comment-25524 Pete: "Bill James has Happ projected at a 4.31 ERA next year. I think he’s closer than some people might think." When I read a bunch of people talking about Happ's numbers are better than they should be, I did some digging to try to disprove them.  Instead I became convinced that they are right.  (See the raw #s at <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow">www.baseball-reference.com</a>) The only, and I do mean ONLY, way that Happ can reproduce his 2009 is if he is the only Major League Pitcher in history who pitches demonstratively and consistently better from the stretch than from the windup.  I found a strong trend that all starters pitch better from the windup - basically no one I looked up was an exception.  Except Happ.  For the entire year with no one on he had an OPS against of .753 (about what Joe Blanton does all the time).  With men on, it went down to .650 (about what Roy Halladay does all the time).  With Runners in Scoring Position, it went down to .479 (Pedro Martinez in his prime did about .526 all the time)!!! So, how likely is it that a guy pitches like Joe Blanton with no one on, Roy Halliday with runners on, and better the Pedro at his best with RISP?  I'm thinking, not very. There is just no precident for this.  I couldn't find a single example of a pitcher who was able to pitch better from the stretch than from the windup.  Therefore 1) Happ will regress and pitch more like a 4.50 ERA guy next year, or 2) He found a way to pitch more effectively from the stretch than the windup and will continue to baffle hitters, pitching his way to a HOF career no one in this world predicted. Pete: “Bill James has Happ projected at a 4.31 ERA next year. I think he’s closer than some people might think.”

When I read a bunch of people talking about Happ’s numbers are better than they should be, I did some digging to try to disprove them.  Instead I became convinced that they are right.  (See the raw #s at http://www.baseball-reference.com)

The only, and I do mean ONLY, way that Happ can reproduce his 2009 is if he is the only Major League Pitcher in history who pitches demonstratively and consistently better from the stretch than from the windup.  I found a strong trend that all starters pitch better from the windup – basically no one I looked up was an exception.  Except Happ.  For the entire year with no one on he had an OPS against of .753 (about what Joe Blanton does all the time).  With men on, it went down to .650 (about what Roy Halladay does all the time).  With Runners in Scoring Position, it went down to .479 (Pedro Martinez in his prime did about .526 all the time)!!!

So, how likely is it that a guy pitches like Joe Blanton with no one on, Roy Halliday with runners on, and better the Pedro at his best with RISP?  I’m thinking, not very.

There is just no precident for this.  I couldn’t find a single example of a pitcher who was able to pitch better from the stretch than from the windup.  Therefore 1) Happ will regress and pitch more like a 4.50 ERA guy next year, or 2) He found a way to pitch more effectively from the stretch than the windup and will continue to baffle hitters, pitching his way to a HOF career no one in this world predicted.

]]>