I’ve done this with Cliff Lee and I’ve done this with Roy Halladay, and now I get to do it for Roy Oswalt. The fact that all 3 of these pitchers have worn Phillies uniforms in the past 12 months and that 2 of them will be wearing them through next year and maybe through 2012, is beyond unbelievable to me. Almost as surreal as the World Series victory.
Anyway, this will give you an idea of what to expect from Oswalt as he starts his Phillies career tomorrow night in Washington. As always, the majority of this data is courtesy of FanGraphs.
Basic Stats
Oswalt is currently 6-12 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
His NL ranks are as follows:
- 6th in WHIP
- 7th in Quality Start %
- 9th in BB/9
- 9th in H/9
- 11th in K/9
- 14th in K
- 19th in ERA
- 24th in innings
He is a ground ball pitcher, but his GB/FB ratio has been decreasing the last couple season.
On his career, he is 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Pitch Breakdown
Fastball – 55.0%, 93.0 mph average
Slider – 16.9%, 84.5 mph average
Curveball – 16.0%, 72.6 mph average
Change-Up – 11.7%, 83.3 mph average
Like both Lee and Halladay, he throws four effective pitches. Even though he is 32, his fastball velocity has stayed almost exactly the same his entire career. A drop in fastball velocity is usually a sign of bad things to come, but that’s not an issue with Oswalt.
When he came up, he was pretty much just fastball/curveball. Each year he has thrown his slider and change-up more. This year he is throwing both pitches more than he has in his entire career.
Some other facts:
- His fastball is the 19th hardest in baseball this year among starters
- Only Randy Wolf has a bigger difference in velocity between his fastball and curveball.
Pitch Value
FanGraphs also assigns a value to each player’s pitch based on its outcome. They also have swing and miss data for each pitch. Here is how Oswalt’s numbers stack up. Since the actual values won’t make sense without context, I’ll focus on how he stacks up against other pitchers. These rankings are per pitch value, not total.
- He has the 6th best curveball in baseball this year, right behind Roy Halladay
- He has the 27th best slider in baseball, right behind Max Scherzer
- He has the 30th best 4-seam fastball, right inbetween CC Sabathia and Carl Pavano
- His change-up has been a below average pitch this year, and has been his “worst” pitch throughout his career. Probably why he throws it the least.
- His overall value, WAR (Wins over Replacement) is 26th in baseball among pitchers. Roy Halladay is tied for 1st with Josh Johnson. Cole Hamels is 66th.
- BaseballProspectus’ VORP (Value Over Replacement) has him as the 36th best pitcher in baseball this year. Halladay is 2nd (behind JJ) and Hamels is 35th.
Comparison to Phillies
How do these pitches compare to those of the Phillies’ current starters? Both in terms of velocity and value?
- He has the hardest fastball on the staff, 0.6 mph harder than Halladay.
- He throws about the same amount of curves as Halladay
- His fastball value is the best on the team
- He throws the slider more than anyone on the team. Only Blanton really throws one.
So that’s Oswalt.
As he is a National League pitcher, I wouldn’t expect any kind of amazing run from him to end the year, but I do think he will do roughly what Hamels has done for us the last couple months.
He has given up 3 ER or less in 16 of his 20 starts and 2 ER or less in 13 of 20. He can get hit around from time to time, and has given up 6 runs or more 3 times.
He doesn’t guarantee us a playoff spot or a playoff run. Our offense and bullpen need to do their part for that to happen. But with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, we have the best top-3 starters in baseball and that’s gives us as good a shot as anyone for 2010 and 2011.
Also- consider this your game thread for the Nats series – I won’t have time to put something up.
Loading ...
{ 160 comments… read them below or add one }
Pumped to see what he has in store for the Nats tomorrow.
Pumped to see what he has in store for the Nats tomorrow.>>
might be apples to oranges under the circumstances, but he was bad last Saturday in his last Houston start.
But with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, we have the best top-3 starters in baseball>>
Ummmm, maybe, maybe not. Put it this way. Cards and Giants are in the discussion. Red Sox and Yanks. Put it this way. Who’s hot has something to do with it.
I’d trust your opinion more than my top of the head answer, but I’m probably not that far off in saying its close and who’s hot is in play.
KB-
You are right. Could be others worthy of the top top-3.
Not sure I’d take any over ours in a playoff series though.
Not sure I’d take any over ours in a playoff series though.>>
Probably not, but they’s be terrific matchups.
Let’s hope we find out.
I don’t follow the Phils as closely as most here. Can someone explain why so many people were down on Oswalt coming to the Phils when trade negotiations were in their early stages? Was it simply that people thought Oswalt did not like Philly so screw him? Were people worried about giving up to much (trading away Werth to make room for Oswalt’s salary)- or was there something more to it that I’m missing?
I’m just glad that they have a third guy who if he gets hot in the playoffs could be dominant.
tk76-
I think a decent amount of people were turned off by his reluctance to come to Philly. Another group probably favored Dan Haren or were misled by Oswalt’s W-L record. And, of course, there are still many people up in arms over the Cliff Lee deal. But at the end of the day, we got a real steal. Without giving up Werth, Singleton, or any pitching prospect, we picked up someone that would be the ace for the majority of clubs in the majors. I certainly would not want to face a rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels in October.
Parting shots on a Thursday night…
Does this sound all too familiar? While dropping two of three to the Washington Nationals, the Braves hit only .196 (19-for-97) and averaged only 2.0 runs per game, including a shutout in the opener against Miguel Batista and three relievers.
Some great irony the last 48 hours. Amidst the greatness of the week, some things happened last night that none of us talked about whereas there have been a lot of times we would have talked them to death. Another great outing by Doc, while we all watched DB with intensity, and no doubt we’ll all get to it, but what happens with him when Shane comes back? Stay tuned.
You have to feel for Milt Thompson. Or feel good for Greg Gross. All I know is something is working.
I’m impressed with the Dodgers. Or my lack of understanding of baseball. They put George Sherrill on irrevocable waivers 10 days ago or so, and he was the losing pitcher versus the Padres tonight. I need to check Webster’s offering on irrevocable.
Ron Washington deserves every vote he gets for AL Skipper of the Year, but I think Ozzie Guillen might deserve the award. They were down 9.5 games in the standings earlier in the year.
The allegedly intense discussions between old friends and new teammates Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge may take on a new twist if they continue in the CBP clubhouse. They used to argue whether it was the Baptists or the Catholics that were right. Roy Halladay may stump em both and give the Mormons the win.
That was fine programming by the World Wide Leader last night. Showing the Mets and Cards was okay, but showing every ARod at bat instead of every D Brown at bat was a waste of time. Sad that 600th homer could be greeted by apathy, but that sure seems the national take.
Although pitching is the comeback story of the year, it looks like only 3 possible 20 game winners in the NL, Ubaldo, Adam, and Doc, who trails at 12. 5 ALers have 12 wins, but Phil Hughes won’t win 20, and Carl Pavano is 13-6.
Pete (or anyone),
With the Victorino injury, Werth is almost a mortal lock to stay for the rest of the season, however does anybody think there’s a chance the team resigns him with Oswalt and Howard’s extension on the books?
The 2011 payroll is already at $143M (with Howard’s extension). Add $11M for Oswalt and, say $12M (?) for Werth and you’re looking at $166M – Yankees are at $213M for 2010 and the Red Sox are at $168M, Cubs are at $144M. No one else is close by any definition of the word. 91 consecutive sell-outs. It’s possible.
I don’t know what to expect anymore. The Gillick/Reuben era in the front office has completely changed the game in Philly. It’s almost like the Phillies were sold and we got a whole new franchise.
Another note: The Eagles have been perennial contenders for a decade now, thanks to the Phillies I’ll bet ESPNPhilly.com launches by Opening Day 2011.
Werth is almost a mortal lock to stay for the rest of the season, however does anybody think there’s a chance the team resigns him with Oswalt and Howard’s extension on the books?>>
anyone includes me (I think) and I think I’m in a real minority around here thinking it’s more of a possibility than most seem to. It really has been awfully quiet on the Werth resigning front newswise, but I did read somewhere (sorry I can’t provide more reliable information, but I remember thinking that seems
credible, considering the source) which he was slow to accept. I cannot for the life of me begin to guess where an 8 figure deal for him for 3 years would fit in the budget, so from that standpoint, I concede to being lost. But I will guess that with barely paying Oswalt (Houston is picking up a lot of the tab), that might actually enhance the chances. It comes down to this. Werth is a good all around player, 5 tools, and a valuble right hand hitter. I guess I’d put the chances of resigning him at 30-40 per cent, conceding that if they were going to get it done, it probably would have happened by now. I don’t know that heavily shopping him the last month is directly relavant to resigning him. His funk didn’t help, of course, but the bottom line was we needed help. and if you had today’s asset that was unsigned for next year, he was tradable. Ibanez, of course, is an albatross in offering an opinion on this matter.
Good seeing your name on the board again, Chris.
Itll be nice to have a pitcher with a good curveball in the rotation. While Myers was inconsistent, I liked that he threw a different pitch than our other starters. I just think it makes it a bit more difficult on hitters during a series. Halladay’s cutter, Hamel’s changeup, and Roy’s curve. A nasty and diverse 1-3 in any series.
Also, I know that Roy’s curve is really good too but it’s not his signature pitch, it’s his strikeout pitch. Halladay is just nasty good with 3 great pitches. I didn’t realize his curve was so good.
ChrisMcC-
First of all, nice to have you back.
Second of all, with the Phillies looking like they will sell out the entire season, it’s POSSIBLE they will have some extra cash. If we were to make another run to the World Series, there might be even more.
That being said, I don’t see it happening, but since I wouldn’t put anything past Ruben, I’d give it a 10-15% chance.
For the record, I think it’s very possible that Oswalt struggles tonight. He just got uprooted from the only place he’s ever played and stuck on a plane to DC where he will meet his new teammates about an hour before going on the mound. Lots of stuff going on.
No Matt Capps for Washington. Traded to Minnesota. That’s the good news. The bad news is they got Wilson Ramos in the deal, a VERY good catching prospect who I can’t believe the Twins gave up in this kind of deal. Hopefully they get rid of Dunn before gametime as well.
Don’t know how many of you either heard or read this story about Miguel Batista’s comments about going from Miss Universe to Miss Iowa when he made his spot start in place of Strasburg the other day.
Well, I guess Miss Iowa has gotten over it because she will be throwing out the first pitch prior to tonight’s game.
For the record, I think it’s very possible that Oswalt struggles tonight. He just got uprooted from the only place he’s ever played and stuck on a plane to DC where he will meet his new teammates about an hour before going on the mound. Lots of stuff going on.>>
Add to that 2 most recent starts were pretty weak.
Offset all that with an incredible amount of adrenalin, enhanced by what should be a lively crowd with lots of Phillie fans, and the bottom line is……
INNTERESTING!
Not that this predicts the future or anything but I did find it interesting. Oswalts ex manager Phil Garner said yesterday that the best he ever saw him pitch was when they had Clemmens and Pettitte on the team. He said that he used them to push him to pitch better. Hopefully he finds the same motivation with Halladay and Hamels.
Drew, I totally understand what you mean by having a pitcher w/ a “unique” pitch added to the mix. I’ma big believer in the element of surprise or at least unfamiliarity. I love watching hamels change up. I co0uldnt imagine a team seing hamels when his changeup is going over for a strike and then the next day seeing a cutter or curve going over. I wish the phils had a knuckleballer (jk ha). moyer to me was amazing to watch, for reasons you mentioned.
Roy O’s ERA in his last 9 starts, which just about equates with the time he requested the trade is 4.21.
Feel absolutely free to consider this an absolute stretch, but what that suggests to me in a way is a definite effect on him by either the depression of losing and uncertainty over the future, or possibly something back related.
I mean 4.21, this year isn’t so good.
Let’s say it was the loss of interest/distraction type factor. That should be erased by the adrenalin factor and add to the liklihood of getting off quickly, or well for the Phils.
It’d be nie if the Phils hit for this guy. Houston hit less for him than we do Doc, and if we get him an early lead tonight, it’d figure to be a big help to him.
Oswalts ex manager Phil Garner said yesterday that the best he ever saw him pitch was when they had Clemmens and Pettitte on the team. He said that he used them to push him to pitch better. Hopefully he finds the same motivation with Halladay and Hamels.>>
While I can definitely see Garner’s onservation as holding merit, it also was when he was 27 year’s old, and should have been pitching some of his best baseball. Now, he’s 32, which isn’t old, but 27 seems more conducive to excellence. Either way, 27-32 is definitely prime range.
Roy 1 made his debut for us on opening day against the Nats in DC. Maybe there will still be some residual positive mojo in the stadium to help Roy 2 tonight.
Ken,
Intelligent minds know to wait until 4 Eastern on Saturday before answering that.
Maybe we need to wait even longer than that. Can’t forget about the 8/31 deadline either. Eyre and Stairs made a difference.
When they dump Berkman, they will have a payroll of 30 million. Those fans are going to have to be incredibly patient.
Yeah, from what I read yesterday the Astros plan is to stock up on promising low level prospects and young guys they will have control over for several years with an eye toward being competitive in 2012 or 2013. Doesn’t inspire you to rush out and buy tickets anytime soon, does it?
One last thing. I think tk76 and I had our pitchers crossed up. He talked about Halladay pitching against the Yankees in the WS, and when I was talking about last year’s debate over whether we should keep Taylor or Brown I inadvertently said it was in the deal for Lee, when it was really in the deal for Halladay. So, to recap, Lee pitched against the Yankees in the WS and Taylor was traded for Halladay. Glad that’s straight.
Pete,
I’ve got one stuck in the spam filter again. I haven’t had a problem in a while. Don’t know why this one got caught.
Thanks.
Thanks for reminding me of my Phruedian slip.
Buster Olney on ESPN radio this morning within the span of 5 minutes:
“I still like the Braves to win the NL East”
“The wild card will come out of the NL Centeral”
“The Phils are now serious contenders to win the WS.”
Huh?
Couple thoughts:
After looking at that lineup last night I still have to wonder how we won that game.
We have 60 games left. 36 starts from the top 3, 24 starts from Blanton and Kendrick. We need to win 25 of the top 3 starts and split the starts of Blanton and Kendrick. That puts us 37-23 the rest of the way. seems very doable and gives us 93 wins. I think that puts us in the playoffs. Once in, if Rollins and Utley are healthy, we should be odds on fav to win it all. I would love to see a matchup with Texas but getting a bit ahead of myself I guess.
You have lots of company, tk76. That’s why I called myself out.
Well researched stuff as usual, Pete. I don’t have time to chase down all the different stories out there, so I’ve pretty much made this site my go to source for phils news & sundries.
This is definitely a coup for Amaro. Not to look to far ahead, but getting Oswalt opens up the possibility of going with a 3 man rotation if necessary in the post season(or for portions thereof). Kendrick has shown some character this year, battling and throwing some solid games despite still getting knocked around every now and then. Blanton has been good for us in the past, but its looking like missing spring training with that strain was not easy for him to overcome this year. How much do we trust them in a big post-season series?
Just for the record, I happen to have liked Happ. He turned in a great rookie year, and I didn’t really buy the sabr stuff about it being an aberration. Well, i should qualify that. Clearly his RISP numbers were a statistical aberration. But i think its equally likely that the aberration was the fact that he allowed so many runners in the first place. The kid had good stuff, good production, a good mental makeup, and from everything I’ve read, a good work ethic(if pressed, i’d say he had a decent shot at being a 2/3 starter). At any rate, this is a long winded way of saying that his elbow issues this year made all this a moot point. In my mind, a pitcher who misses most of the year with elbow problems has bigger question marks than are raised by the sabr stuff. Good job by Amaro for turning a ? into a !.
A lot of credit for this trade goes to the guys in the clubhouse, too. My impression is that if they didn’t make such a dramatic leap in the standings going into the trade deadline, Oswalt wouldn”t have done the deal.
By the way, I was at the game last nite, and the vibe reminded me of the late summers/falls we’ve become accustomed to lately. It just feels like the team is going to win when you walk in there, for whatever that’s worth. There even were cheers for Lidge when he came on (though not especially loud), and there were RAUUULLL chants (though again, not quite carrying the thunderous reverberations of yesteryear).
Do you guys think Oswalt is better then Hamels? Thats meant more for the rest of this year and next.
Hamels has been pitching better and it’d be nice if Oswalt is on par with him or better.
Do you guys think Oswalt is better then Hamels? >>
I do. I think Oswalt is less likely to make mistakes that hurt him, and I’ll give him a pass on his inconsistency this year, and figure he’s more likely to be back to his consistent ways in the thick of a playoff/pennant race. I might be inclined to admire Cole’s work more than Roy’s if I based it on one of those games where Cole is on a roll and locating well, but while he’s shown more of that this year than last, you still have an element of hope as opposed to confidence when he takes the mound. If Doc got hurt, Oswalt is the ace.
Really enjoyed this article.
http://phuturephillies.com/2010/07/29/my-analysis-of-the-oswalt-trade/
Once in, if Rollins and Utley are healthy, we should be odds on fav to win it all. I would love to see a matchup with Texas but getting a bit ahead of myself I guess.>>
Well, let’s get conjectural and say they make the post season. It’s so far away, and they’d have home frield if they made the WS, but I don’t see the club being odds on favorites, which I take to mean something less than prohibitive
but more than slight.
I’d say they’d be pretty even with the Yanks, who you have to respect, Tampa Bay is really good, and a high quality deep rotation, maybe we’d be a slight favorite over them with home field, the White Sox, roster changes pending pretty soon are no slouch. Boston, we can’t beat with a handicap, and Minnesota, well, I guess we’d be favored, but they sure played us well earlier. Then there’s always bullpen consideration against anyone, but maybe that gets better by then (knock on wood).
The preface of my reply in place, which is so speculative, what I really want to get to is you said you’d love to play the Texas Rangers whom I purposely left out. No, no, no, 1000 times no. You do not want to play the Texas Rangers. Not that we couldn’t beat them, even though they have a much better bullpen, but you don’t even want to risk facing Cliff possibly 3 times, including a game 7. Just because he didn’t pitch off 3 days rest here, and never has, doesn’t mean he wouldn’t, and I wouldn’t rule out his doing well. And it’s not to say we might not beat him, but while it makes for terrific drama, you don’t want the egg on our faces if they and he beat us. Call me weak if you wish but that possibility scares the hell out of me. Let’s just get there, and let’s just get a ring.
Really enjoyed this article.
http://phuturephillies.com/2010/07/29/my-analysis-of-the-oswalt-trade/
it’s a good read, but not without prejudices. He says we didn’t mortgage the future, which is questionable. I’ve never seen Villar, but I like athletic types, so he intruiges me. I don’t know why Houston flipped Gose for just Wallace. I’m up in the air on Happ, but even if the other 2 do work out, don’t tell me we didn’t have to pay a price to get Roy O.
Well, the White Sox just got Edwin Jackson, and about 6.5 seconds later, the boys at MLBrumors.com are onto flipping him for Adam Dunn. That’d be nice before the anthem tonight, but amidst the speculation, they report this…
MLB Network’s Peter Gammons adds that the Nationals are “not that hot” for Jackson, though SI’s Jon Heyman tweets that they love him.
Oh, brother.
Pete, I asked before about the net gains/losses of the Lee/Doc/Roy trades. Cliff Corcoran on SI didn’t take into account the prospects in the Halladay trade, but he did say that in the “downgrade” from Lee to Oswalt we “upgraded from Gose to Gillies, exchanged Happ’s major-league present for Aumont’s speculative future, and flipped Villar’s long-shot potential for Ramirez’s reliable lack thereof. I think it’s safe to say it wasn’t worth it…”
Huh? Yes, we did give up a #1A SP in Lee; I think it’s time we let that go. It sounds to me, though, if you look at where the Phils were 2 days ago compared to right now, the net outcome is an upgrade at SP from what we currently had (Oswalt) at the expense of an [injured] major league #3/4 SP (Happ, who is 28, btw) and a 19 y.o who is miles away from the majors (Villar), while also improving our farm system (Gillies is better than Gose; Aumont has potential, although he has struggled; Ramirez is a wild card). I guess I just disagree with Corcoran’s conclusion based on his own supporting evidence.
If we shipped off Lee and then traded for some clown like Jake Westbrook, that’s one thing, and I’m sure the “Why didn’t we just keep Cliff Lee?!” chorus would be deafening. But I do think the Oswalt deal righted the ship (and then some?).
Ken,
I mispoke about “odds on.” A meant “even odds” or we would match up about even with the best team in the AL – which I still take to be the Yanks. I wantt o face Texas because I WANT to face Lee. I am all about drama and excitement in sports, and that would be the ultimate for Philly fans. And don’t forget, he can still beat us but we win the series – like what the Yanks did to us last year. I think we beat Texas. It would be a very similar matchup as we had with Tampa. Texas may even be favored slightly but I think their young guys and first timers would be deer in headlights syndrome. In no circumstances do I want to face the Red Sox. They own us. Here’s hoping that sleeping dog just sleeps right through the regular season.
TOS-
What’s strange to me is that these people (the guy you mention and Buster Olney, among others) are completely ignoring the fact that Oswalt is signed past this season at reasonable money…
Oswalt is certainly a downgrade from Lee for 2010. But would you rather have Cliff Lee for 1 year, or Roy Oswalt for potentially 2 1/2? Isn’t that an easy choice?
You can never plan for 1 year in baseball, because too much weird stuff happens, especially in the playoffs, where the best regular season team rarely wins.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t have kept Lee. But things might have turned out for the better in the end.
I don’t think you can argue with this trade. This trade fills the hole left by Lee and gives the Phillies options in the future, something resigning Lee to a long-term deal wouldn’t. Keep in mind that Oswalt and Lee are the same age. Good deal by the Phils.
“it’s a good read, but not without prejudices. He says we didn’t mortgage the future, which is questionable. I’ve never seen Villar, but I like athletic types, so he intruiges me. I don’t know why Houston flipped Gose for just Wallace. I’m up in the air on Happ, but even if the other 2 do work out, don’t tell me we didn’t have to pay a price to get Roy O. ”
Ken-
We obviously paid a price to get Oswalt. But that price was significantly less than what we could have given for him. While I liked Happ, I think it is tough to argue against him overperforming last year. I think at best he is a #3/4 starter on a good team. While we gave up a few pieces from the farm system, we were able to hang onto Singleton, Cosart, and Colvin. This is pretty incredible to me. Also, we now have Oswalt at a great price for next year too. This isn’t a one year rental. All in all, I would say the Phils won this trade. Did we pay a price? Yes. But ultimately it seems like a small price to pay for what we got in return.
By request, here is the combined Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt deals…
Phillies Got: 1/2 year of Cliff Lee, 4-5 years of Roy Halladay, 1.5-2.5 years of Roy Oswalt, J.C. Ramirez, Tyson Gillies and Phillippe Aumont
Phillies Traded (in order of importance): Kyle Drabek, JA Happ, Jason Knapp, Michael Taylor, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Carlos Carrasco, Jonathan Villar, Jason Donald, Lou Marson
First off – we’ve got to have one of best scouting departements in baseball to be able to trade 10 prospects in 2 years, and still have a very promising farm system. I know that when Gillick came in, he said this was the first thing that needed to be changed. Guys like Chuck LaMar, Benny Looper, Marti Wolever and others deserve A LOT of credit.
Second – I’m pretty sure I would trade those 10 prospects for just 4-5 years of Halladay!
But would you rather have Cliff Lee for 1 year, or Roy Oswalt for potentially 2 1/2? Isn’t that an easy choice?
Yes.
Think about how many things can change or go wrong on a baseball team in 4 years. Look at the ’06 Phillies and the ’10 Phillies, I’d say there have been some crazy things that have happened in thos 4 years, no? Well 4 years is about how long it is going to take to see Gose or Villar on the field, so who cares. IMO neither will be impact players, but if they are it won’t be anytime soon.
I agree with Pat. While we did pay a price for Oswalt, it was more our price than theirs and I think that’s a win for us.
I finally got a chance to read the analysis of the trade over at phuturephillies. I like the work that James does over there and I trust his opinion regarding prospects. The site is called phuturephillies so I’m sure there is some inherent, unavoidable bias, but he does try to be as objective as possible (through the development of his SONAR scores, for example).
I liked the whole piece but there were a couple things that really stood out to me and that I agree with wholeheartedly:
The real purpose of prospects
I think some people here tend to lose sight of the fact that the goal of any organization is to win games at the big league level. Everyone loves falling in love with prospects. Seeing a guy like Domonic Brown come through the system, then make it to the majors is a really rewarding feeling. But for every Domonic Brown, there are 50 guys who will never make it, or never contribute. Prospects are like stocks. You do your research (scouting), you decide whether to buy the stock (drafting/signing international market), and then you continue to do your research and decide whether to keep the stock or sell it. If you buy the right stocks, and everything goes as planned, you hold onto that stock. The Phillies did this with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and others. In some cases, you realize that the stock you have might be valuable to trade for another stock. You look at the value of what you’re giving up, compared to what you’re getting. If something happens to the value of your asset before you have a chance to trade it for another valuable asset, you may never get a chance to receive value for it.
Conclusion
This deal is a clear win for the Phillies. Both prospects the Phillies gave up are 3-4 years away from making it to the major leagues, and probably even further away from beingabove average big leaguers. The beta, or the risk, is extremely high on both guys. Both could be stars, and both could end up getting stuck in AAA. The most common criticism I read is that the Phillies are “getting really old” and that they have to “keep their younger players”. I agree that young talent is needed to sustain this run of awesomeness. But the Phillies still have an abundance of talent in the minor leagues. If Jon Singleton continues to rake, he’ll maintain his elite trade value, and in 2 years, if the Phillies need a shorstop, or a left fielder, or a starter, or whatever else it is they need, they’ll have the prospects to go get them. Established major leaguers are a safer bet than prospects, no matter how much you love the prospect. For every elite stud, there are 50 guys that never make it, even though all the major prospect outlets were convinced they were on the way to stardom. The path to the hall of fame, or even an above average big league career, is a path not often traveled.
Here is where I give you my unedited opinion. The Phillies are a model franchise, and if you can’t appreciate what they are doing, then I think you’ll never appreciate anything the franchise does. 3 straight division titles. A World Series ring. The best pitcher in baseball begging to come to your team and signing a below market level deal. A stocked farm system. One of the best scouting departments out there, which consistently finds under the radar bargains and steals in the draft, and a Latin American program churning out solid prospects for $100-300K a pop, while other teams are spending huge 7 figure amounts and seeing less return for their investment. A packed ballpark, and a payroll near the top of baseball. 10 years ago, the Phillies had to beg overpriced, average free agents to come to the team. Now, players can’t wait to play here. This trade sets the Phillies up to make a big run at another division, another pennant, and another world series ring. And they kept their best prospects. This was an awesome trade.
But ultimately it seems like a small price to pay for what we got in return.>>
Pat,
What we got in return is a high percentage liklihood that we semi-absolutely had to do. And I’ll buy into all the arguements on the chances of the kids making it as logical. If Roy contributes and we make the playoffs both years, go deep 1 of the 2 or something, I’ll say it worked out barring Hall of Fame level careers by at least 1 of the 2 minor leaguers, no matter what Happ does.
But I do think its 1 thing to be excited about the prospects of the trade, and another to write it up as successful just yet. Maybe its just that I am slightly cautious on expecting too much out of Roy O versus what I felt about Doc and Cliff when we got them.
So I’d make the trade, but be a little patient on congratulating Ruben euphorically.
Regarding Happ, he did a good job here. He got to pitch against a weak Nat offense a decent amount of the time, maybe that helped his terrific numbers, we’ll see. I’d like to know exactly what Wade and company saw that made him desireable. He’s not undesirable, but at this time, what was the attraction when he was walking so many before (only 1-2 starts) and after he got hurt (several starts, including several minor league assignments, and 1 here) . I’m not saying they decided wrong, just wonder exactly what they see as attractive about him.
I wonder about 1 other thing on the trade. Wonder why Houston, if not in salary dump mode didn’t negotiate a future considerations clause and pay x amount over say 3-5 years depending on how their acquistions performed. Maybe peak at 11 mil if they all made the bigs or something. Just giving up the 11 mil with seemingly no negotiation sounds like a salary riddance.
Little disappointed in the Inquirer.
When Doc struggled a month ago, if struggled is the right word and not too strong, they ran a poll on who’d you rather have, Doc or Cliff.
Today, they want to know who you’d rather have Roy O or Cliff.
In neither case did they ask about fair time periods, like Cliff for a year, or Doc for 4, or Roy for 2 versus Cliff for the rest of this year.
Not high quality journalism. And small wonder Cliff is kicking ass against both guys.
“But I do think its 1 thing to be excited about the prospects of the trade, and another to write it up as successful just yet. ”
Ken-
I think that we are looking at this trade in two different ways. As it stands right now, this trade was successful. We are better served going into the rest of this season and next season with Roy Oswalt then we would have been going into the rest of the season and next season with Happ, Gose, and Villar. We can judge the trade again in years, but right now this was a win for the Phils. We didn’t kill the farm system, our payroll, or our major league club (if Werth was included in some way). We can’t tell what Gose or Villar will do, but it certainly seems like we have current prospect and future prospects, thanks to our scouting, to take their places. This trade makes our team better and that’s what makes a trade successful.
I know this winning streak has to end at some point but we are facing Craig Stammen here guys, so I don’t expect it to be tonight.
bski unfortunately your logic, which I assumed would’ve been correct wasn’t…the Phils had some pathetic at-bats tonight but they weren’t helped by the home plate umpire who had a very inconsistent strike zone…
hopefully it was just a one game blip on the radar but this performance resembled many of the ones the Phils had during their prolonged slump as they couldn’t hit a below average righty who they had killed in the past, had several mistakes and the field, and didn’t get good performances from the from the bullpen or starter….
and to just rub salt in the wound, JA Happ threw 6 shutout innings while striking out 6 (although I still support the trade)…hopefully the Phils regroup tomorrow….
I just checked on Happ myself, Jurnee. He only gave up 2 hits (but he walked 4) in his 6 innings tonight. I hope he makes out ok. Whether or not you like him as a pitcher he is a human being, and from the quotes I read he was pretty broken up about being traded. All part of the business though and it cuts both ways.
About us, we are now 9-22 (and not hitting a lick) in our last 31 road games, our only series win coming against the Yankees during that stretch. And we still have 30 road games left so we’ve got to turn it around right quick if we plan on catching the Braves (who happen to be leading the Reds 6-4 in the bottom of the 10th at the moment, btw).
Tough game to break the streak. I was really hoping the offense would show up for Oswalt in his debut although he didn’t do much to help his chances of a win. He left way too many pitches over the center of the plate tonight. He seemed to rely on his fastball a lot and I didn’t see the curve as much as I hoped for. If he did throw the curve very often, it wasn’t as clean as it usually is. However, I think he will rebound for future starts. Lord knows I hope so.
What a bad trade…………….
Yeah, Happ was pretty smooth tonight. That was nice. And besides, they could use some excitement in that city about the team. We’ll see if we’re all so sympathetic to his cause when he pitches against us.
I was thinking about Oswalt tonight. Let’s say for conversation’s sake that he doesn’t perform well the rest of the year. Maybe he just has an off year. He wouldn’t be the first player to do that. You just don’t expect a guy with his stuff to ever 6-13, no matter what, although the lack of run support, including one more game now is a major factor. Mext time will be better.
haha, he’ll be fine.
Matt Cain was 7 – 16 in 2007 and 8 – 14 in 2008. Oswalt is the 2010 version of Cain.
About us, we are now 9-22 (and not hitting a lick) in our last 31 road games, our only series win coming against the Yankees during that stretch. And we still have 30 road games left so we’ve got to turn it around right quick if we plan on catching the Braves (who happen to be leading the Reds 6-4 in the bottom of the 10th at the moment, btw).>>
Seems like a lot of club’s are off on road wins this year. But Phillyfan broke it down with what appears to be reasonable numbers today, targeting 93 wins to make the playoffs. That means we’d have to go like 37-22 between home and road. Wouldn’t be shocking if 93 winds up a little high. The best way to do it is just outpace the Braves.
Matt Cain was 7 – 16 in 2007 and 8 – 14 in 2008. Oswalt is the 2010 version of Cain.>>
Cain wasn’t the type of guy I was referring to. Cain at those points was a youngster developing. I meant a solid long term pitcher, or player for that matter who just has an off year. First example that comes to mind is Steve Carlton. By 1973, he’d been in the bigs for 6-7 years, and was already a proven commmodity, including `1972 when he won 27. But the next year, he was 13-20, and then proeeded to continue on his winning ways.
I really don’t think that Oswalt is having a bad year. Has he struggled in some starts? Yes. In 21 starts this season, Oswalt has gone at least 7 innings 13 times and at least 6 innings 17 times. And one of the games that he didn’t was because he got tossed for arguing. Also, he has only given up 2 or less runs in 13 of his starts so far this season. Are these Halladay numbers? No. But we don’t need them to be. He had a 2.88 ERA in July (including tonight’s game) and has kept his WHIP consistently low. Records don’t indicate much to me with pitchers.
Matt Cain had a combined 7.7 War in 07 and in 08 with a win lose record of 15-30. Cain obviously pitched good in those years and could of easily had a better record than 15-30. Cain’s terrible record does not indicate how good he has pitched in those two years, just like Oswalt this year. That is why I said; Oswalt was this years Matt Cain because Oswalt, as well all know, has been losing games, not because of the lack ability but because of the lack of run support. Just like Cain in those two years.
That is all that I was trying to say.
I like the roy2 trade, but I still think the wild card will come out of the NL central where either St Louis or Cincy get to play so many games against the 4 bottom feeders (Astros, Bucs, Brewers & Cubs) while we have to handle Mets, Fish, Nats. We need to catch the Braves.
Looks like we’ll go down to the last hour of the dealine with a lot of talk between clubs. As for the Phils, Rueben had projected doing nothing for budgetary reasons, which I’m not qualified to measure, but I will say that maybe this bullpen, maybe Wilson Valdez get it donw, but if I’m running a operation this size, I’m as flexible as I can get. Measure this season as a success if they win the Series, maybe so if they get there, maybe so even if they just get to the playoffs, that determination is an individual thing. But if we don’t make the playoffs, it approaches failuer levels, no matter how exciting it was and winds up being. Not necessarly a failure, he added, to insure accuracy, but it approaches it.
<<Seems like a lot of club’s are off on road wins this year.>>
ya think?
Phillies Yearly Road Record (Since 2004)
Year Record ML Rank
2004 44- 37 Tied 5th
2005 42- 39 Tied 6th
2006 44- 37 Tied 5th
2007 42- 39 Tied 5th
2008 44- 37 2nd
2009 48- 33 Tied 1st
2010 22- 28 17th
Notes from ATL Journal Const who says Braves hve a good shot at a deal by deadline for a reliever or bat..
#Braves‘ Troy Glaus is 17-for-103 (.165) w/ no homers, 6 RBI, .223 slugging percentage in his last 30 games about 5 hours ago via TweetDeck
And this really impressive note
#Braves‘ Heyward’s 2-run 2B raised avg. w/ 2 outs & runners on to .397 (23-for-58), tops in NL among hitters w/ at least 40 ABs (Elias)
Prado: broken knuckle, out 7-10 days, DL decision pending
I’m gonna guess that Anthopolis blinks and winds up getting a nice deal for Scott Downs before the hour’s up. Theo has been awfully absent from the news today.
If the Yanks get Kery Wood, I wonder if Chan Ho winds up getting released. It’s be nice if the Phils at least scouted Wood considering the rumor is the Tribe’d pick up his contract.
wonder if the Braves are in on Luke Scott as a bat.
2:35pm: The Mariners approached the Braves about taking Chone Figgins off their hands, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick adds that the Braves are also making a late bid for a reliever.>>
wow, that’d be interesting. The hell with payroll, get the player mentality.
Giants are still a good candidate to pull a trade by 4. Could they actually part with Jonathan Sanchez?
Well, the Braves got Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth. Ankiel provides some decent offensive weaponry, Farnsworth has always had great stuff and fair results intermittent with some wildness. Not real sure on their recent performances, but they should add depth in the chase for the East.
Dodgers and Padres both stepped up big today. Pads add a bat in Ryan Ludwick, Dodgers add Dotel to the pen where he’s done everything over the years, Theriot and Lilly. Whoever wins the West will leave a formidable comtender for Wild Card status in the dust. Figures to be the Giants and Dodgers, but the Dodgers are more of a post season contender than they were a day ago.
A fun day, to say the least.
Interesting Phuils lineup tonight. DB and Ibanez against the lefty, and The Big Piece sits. JW cleans up.
Nationals
1. Nyjer Morgan, CF
2. Adam Kennedy, 2B
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
4. Adam Dunn, 1B
5. Josh Willingham, LF
6. Roger Bernadina, RF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. Ian Desmond, SS
9. Ross Detwiler, SP
Phillies
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Placido Polanco, 3B
3. Raul Ibanez, LF
4. Jayson Werth, CF
5. Cody Ransom, 1B
6. Domonic Brown, RF
7. Carlos Ruiz, C
8. Wilson Valdez, 2B
9. Joe Blanton, SP
The Yanks did indeed DFA Chan Ho shortly after the trade deadline exiration. An example of a guy that could provide lightning in a bottle performance the rest of the year. Money on wherever he goes won’t be any issue. Money on making room for him would make another story. At this point, he has no bargaining power at all to be a starter. Depending onwhat their scouts saw, if they did, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants wind up as someone he might consider, if not vice versa. I have no feel for how the Phils level of interest would unveil.
An interesting angle on Oswalt leaving Houston. Could the Phils wind up hurting themselves in a potential wildcard race? Figure he’ll now make what, maybe 4-6 fewer starts against the Cards and/or Reds the rest of the year? If those clubs wind up winning, and wouldn’t have had Rpy O pitched, and make the wild card off in part the softness of playing Houston sans Iswalt, welcome to Backfired City. Only an imbicile would consider that as a trade factor, but it does make for an ironic possibility of sorts.
well, at least Jayson hit the ball hard. He definitely appears to have some degree of groove back
This Ross Detwiler must be a good prospect. He was their 1st pick in 07, drafted ahead of J-Hey, although that may have been influenced by signability for all I know. Be nice to get a lead and be able to make him work harder, and get into their Cappsless bullpen.
Outright scary here, Dunn with 2 on.
when and if we escape this mess, the bottom of the order bats. Maybe they can do something before Detwiler gets any ideas that he’s suposed to win this game. Anxious to see DB against the lefty.
Disappointing to get to 3 balls, and Valdez chops weakly to have Blanton lead off next inning.
Wheels brought up a good point. 2 outs, I think Ransom at first, Valdez at the plate, and Detwiler wastes 2 throws over there and almost walks Valdez worrying about the runner. Very surprising Pudge allowed that. Still a great, great catcher.
I was thinking about should Blanton be hitting 8th and Valdez 9thm ala Tony LaRussa. It’s strange how if that’s so right, why don’t others do it, and since nobody does, if its so wrong, why does TLR keep doing it for I swear, like 10 years now. Very strange.
Now we know why Blanton hits 9th. not even an extra pitch.
nice comeback by the Red Sox today. Sometimes, the Dodgers maybe wish they had Lidge. Looks like Broxton blew another one. I wonder how far Chone Figgins will get in waivers. I bet he needs a change of scenery. Beltre made his 16th error today. He’s actually a very good defensive 3B. He just cost a lot and Plac has been great.
Wilson (Wonders Never Cease) Valdez
And now, I’m gonna do better than cure cancer.
Blanton sucks in the first.
Lidge sucks in the 9th.
Flip time.
Joe has given up runs 16 of 17 times this year
I believe Ransom feels really good at the plate here
Blanton better keep things where they are.
Blanton is startingto remind me of Cole early in the eason. Cole would pitch, and the standard post game comment would be that he pitched great except for 1 bad inning, or 2 bad pitches or the like.
That stuff do get old. But he has picthed well outside of the usual 1st inning stuff.
I like this move by Riggleman. Get this guy out of there on a positive note and build his confidence. Does make you wonder if their bullpen has stamina with no innings eater on their staff, and Strasburg especially being monitored.
yes, Virginia, I do like that move. CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH!
Looks like a good ball game, Rays and Yanks. Lance Berkman is DHing, batting 2md, and 0-2.
Not sure how many pitches Joe has thrown, but he’s about had it.
That’s a fine catch, but Domonic could be an adventure in the outfield for a while.
Didn’t really think of it at the time, but Charlie maybe should have cut it with Blanton and oinch hit last inning.
Didn’t really think of it at the time, but Charlie maybe should have cut it with Blanton and oinch hit last inning.>>
Probably not, there were 2 outs none on.
I tell ya what, last night’s game might have looked like the slump of old, but Raul and JW are really looking much, much better at the plate.
I bet Roy O is maybe starting to get excited about his new club. Brown makes a terrific catch, he’s seeing a comeback. Maybe pitch a great game next time feeling good in his new environs.
Outstanding, text book K-DP.
very smart inning by Contreras. He’s really been a great addition. Yanks and Rays also tied 4-4, B7. Nolasco no hits in the 4th versus the Pads. Tejada batting clean up? Gimme a break. But Ludwick changes a lot.
I’m thinking that plays for relif help and infield help until Chase gets back might not have been as important as I was thinking earlier. I really miss Chase. I mean, Lidge is Lidge, but we’re playing with more leads off an Utley-Valdez switch. Chase is as Hall of Famer as it gets. So easy to forget about him, he’s been gone so long.
Last year we saw players like Scott Kazmir, Jim Thome, Carl Pavano, Alex Gonzalez, Brad Penny, Aubrey Huff, Billy Wagner, Jon Garland, and Ivan Rodriguez change teams in August, so there are definitely going to be quality players available on the market next month.
Well, would have been nice if Raul hit there, but he’s getting close to shutting a lot of people up.
Have to hold them here, but when we bat, Werth, and 2 lefties, so we’ll see how Riggleman handles it against Werth.
Hold em, Madson.
I really have had a confidence we’d win this game the way we have fought back. A matter of time. But I don’t feel like pressing that with extra innings. Let’s get it done here in the 9th.
what an outstanding game for Chooch. He’s like about 10 others on this team. The anchor, the heart and the spine. So clutch.
guess what time it is guys??
Freakin Charlie is managing such a great game tonight. Knew when to play Raul against the lefty, goes with DB who makes a great defensive play. Bats the warming up JW cleanup, and Riggleman dares him to PH Ryho for Chooch, and the catcher comes up HUGE.
Now Charlie’s task gets even more challenging. Probably Lidge time, although Madson threw great in the 8th and it is a road game, but I see Brad coming in.
Kneel and pray time.
I don’t think anybody is up in the pen, either.
what the hell is Ruiz going to say that is going to help, or hasn’t said before.
bright side?: perhaps this will force Charlie’s hand.
The question may be what do we have in Oswalt…
But unfortunately we know exactly what we have in Lidge.
sorry Nats but the fireworks are excessive.
nothing impressive about hitting Lidge.
seems everyone does that.
Charlie Manuel: <in Yu-Gi-Oh voice> its your move!
As far as I’m concerned, we got exactly what we deserved.
Dozens, and dozens of times, we have screamed about this. And Ruben doesn’t get a closer, and Charlie keeps using him.
And you think it matters one bit how are top 3 match up with other clubs?
In the playoffs no less.
I put more effort into the final day of the trading deadline today than Ruben Amaro.
You guys that fell head over heels over him the last couple days can kiss my ass.
Fan-freakin-tastic! We hang tough all game after Blanton gives up 3 in the first and fight our way back to a lead in the 9th only to have Lidge blow another one (after the Braves lost earlier today and we were that close to getting back the game we lost to them last night). This can’t be allowed to go on for two more months can it? Please tell me it can’t.
The next time any moron writes about the Roy Oswalt trade making up for Cliff Lee, I want a full disclaimer that you are writing from a fucking mental institution.
The Roy Oswalt trade still has Brad Lidge on this fucking roster.
Brad Lidge should be irrevocaly, irretrievably waived TONIGHT!
This is so far beyond ridiculous.
I don’t know if its all Amaro’s fault, or partially Charlie’s fault, but I have absolutely had it.
And I know the rest of you are equally pissed off, but this really really sucks.
I don’t want to see it 1 more time. Not one. I have had it with this guy.
b.ski: dont you dare act like this is the only hard fought game that Lidge has wasted. he has leaked wins, and lost games too.
KB: i agree with you on one thing. we get what we ask for. when he takes the mound, you get what you get. deal with it.
this is why I didnt like the Osawlt deal, its distracting us from the biggest hole.
“This can’t be allowed to go on for two more months can it? Please tell me it can’t.”
There are better options, but no good ones.
i;m not invested anymore so when Zimmerman hit the ball 10ft beyond the deepest park of Nationals Stadium (406Ft and counting), a shrug and sarcastic smile were all that emitted.
note to Lidge supporters: this is not an aberration or a hiccup. remember this has being going on since last season. not just this one. a very important thing to remember. all through the playoffs when he remarkably picked it up and got knocked around by the Yankees. it didnt happen overnight.
thats enough for me.
if you cant tell I’m actually mad.
at who?
our dumb ass manager that’s who.
for today Charlie; you’re a fool.
Lidge hasn’t looked healthy all season with his mediocre fastball command. I was really hoping we’d get a reliever before the deadline since we didn’t give up our best prospects for Oswalt.
At this point I’d rather see Mathieson close, but that’s probably not likely.
I have impeccable timing…I flew into Philly tonight from Florida to visit my Grandparents…I get to their house just in time to see the Zimmerman at-bat…I am ready to give up on Lidge as is everyone else…what is our best option? I have no clue….
what is our best option? I have no clue….>>
if you’ve seen Madson try to close, you know it’s not him. No chance. I’m sure somebody will suggest him, though I have no idea who, but don’t even think about it. It’s only 1 game, and probably stupid to say this, but Mathieson was wild in that 1 game. Maybe its Contreras. It’s just ridiculously frustrating, and I can just imagine how the quotes in the morning paper are gonna raise the level of anger. It’s just unbelievable.
Being as I’m in a pissed off mood, and probably would say something stupid anyway, I might as well dive into something that’s stupid and ignorant anyway. Hindsight.
If you had asked me a few days ago about Kerry Wood, a very small part of me would have been intruiged just because once somebody is good, there’s a tendency to think they can recapture it. Reality is that his ERA is 6, and I don’t follow Cleveland at all, so i don’t know if he’s setting up, or what. I know he has closing experience.
But the point is that the Yankees got him. And reportedly, the Red Sox finished 2nd. ate the Yankees all you wish, dislike the Red Sox for whatever reason. It’s a percentage deal. When either of them makes a deal, thre’s a better chance it works out than not. Clevelan pays at least some of his overweight salary meaning he’s not as expensive as he might be.
And as you read this, and laugh because maybe Kerry Wood is not having a good year, keep in mind the trash the Phils have, and I dare you to say Lidge is better than Kerry Wood. Lidge is the worst pitcher in basball. And there is probably a lot of statistical evidence to support that.
Not only Wood, but today, the Braves, with a good bullpen went out and acquired Kyle Farnsworth. He’s been up and down over his career, and I might be wrong, but I think he was lousy with the Yanks. I know he throws hard. But at this point, I don’t care. Make an effort. Do something.
Don’t bore me with this budget stuff. It wasn’t my idea to pay 25 mil for a 1B when over 20 might have been a bid against yourself. You spend 140 mil on a payroll and don’t protect it with a few extra mil when you have a glaring weakness? Gimme a break.
Grandparents doing good, Jurnee?
Real good game story by Matt Gelb.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/breaking/sports_breaking/20100731_Phils_lose_to_Nationals_in_ninth.html
Ugh….
How many saves have to be blown?
It seems like certain teams have organizational blind spots that they ignore year after year.
…. but clearly for the Phils its Closer. They always seem to have a good set-up guy and a lousy closer.
For the Flyers it used to be goalie. The Eagles neglected the wide reciever position until recently. The Sixers- I guess its players who can play basketball and good coaches
you could argue its still goalie for the Flyers since they’re bringing back Leighton after his underwhelming performance in the Finals….
You have it right Mr. Bland…keep Lee and you don’t need Oswalt, so you can go after relief pitchers PLUS you have Lee for the whole season. Think the 2010 team would be better if we kept Lee now ?
So this is a model organization ? Lidge , Baez and Blanton are making 25 mil collectively this year. Blanton was given 24 million- Lee was given 0…The GM told us that we traded Lee to replenish the farm system- now we give away 2 top prospects and a pretty decent starter for a starting pitcher. Will the ‘model organization spend 16 mil to keep Oswalt more than a year ?
Moyer was destroyed by Charlie who thought it was ok to have a 47 yo throw 8 or 9 innings. Who will he destroy next ?
They always seem to have a good set-up guy and a lousy closer.>>
I don’t think that’s the problem here, tk. They have had good closing relievers since they started winning in the 70s. And Lidge was good, too. As recently as 2 years ago. The aggrivating thing is the lack of plan B, the stubbornness. If it’s so obvious that it isn’t working out, you have to do something, and they can’t or God forbid won’t do it.
I’m not so sure the Eagles have ignored the wide receiver position, either. They maybe have made some judgements that didn’t pan out. Freddie Mitchell seemed like he was a good choice at the time (arguable, of course), and they did get TO, so it’s not like they haven’t at least tried.
The problem here is that the Phils tried, and it’s not working. And that has to be reacted to. Not ignored with Charliespeak like we and the players are gullible. I don’t know what goes on behind closed doors between Ruben and Charlie on this matter. I’ve inferred from some things that Charlie stands up to Ruben on the get me more starting pitching platform. Not what I have, but better. Charlie is stuck with him. Doesn’t mean he has to use him, but he couldn’t be stupid enough to believe that he’s my closer crap anymore any more than any of us.
maybe it won’t make a difference but I’m not sure I agree with Charlie moving Ibanez out of the three hole today with how great he has been lately…why mess with something thats working? Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong….
jkay,
b.ski: dont you dare act like this is the only hard fought game that Lidge has wasted. he has leaked wins, and lost games too.
Huh? What did I say? I think you misread what I said In #104. I have consistently been calling for Lidge to be removed as closer, if not from the team, for over a year.
The only thing that explains why we are sticking with Lidge so long is the 3-year contract. Too much money to eat if they unloaded him last year or this year, so they continue trying to get something from him (with awful results).
I saw Amaro’s quotes in today’s Inquirer……
“At some point, these young men are going to have to pitch for us,” Amaro said. “We’re going to have to have low-cost, low-salary, low-major-league-service players. If we have enough good, quality players making the bulk of the payroll, then I think if we keep doing our job on the development side and the scouting side, we’ll have to have those kids step up and play.”
……so maybe he will consider eating the one remaining year on Lidge’s contract. We did eat the last year of Eaton’s contract. I know it was $8 mil for Eaton and it would be $11.5 mil for Lidge, and I know we are much closer to our payroll limit now than we were then, but I can still hope. If not, then we had better have the most expensive mop-up reliever in all of baseball because I wouldn’t pitch him in any meaningful innings for the rest of his days with us.
Charlie is getting surly about it————“I hear you guys say that for two (gosh darn) years,” said Manuel, when asked about Madson. “I hear this and that, this and that. What the hell? We try this guy. We try that guy. We try this guy. Then I hear you bitch to me sometimes about their roles: ‘Guys don’t know their roles.’ I can go on all night now. Let’s just drop it right there.”————but what is he going to do, really? Mix and match with Contreras, Madson, Romero, and Lidge and hope for the best. Not the way I’d like to make a run at a division title, though.
For right now, maybe Lidge should try for the “Roy Oswalt Fix” ————
his miraculous shoulder-healing in single-A ball, back in 1999. The shoulder had been killing him late in the season, into the off-season, until he went to work on this old truck he’d bought.
“It had a miss in the motor and I was trying to find out why it was missing,” Oswalt said Saturday in the visiting clubhouse at Nationals Park. “I was checking sparkplug wires. I picked up one that had melted on one side of it. When I grabbed it, it started shooting bolts through me. I couldn’t open my hand. I’m thinking, ‘How am going to get off of this thing?’ The only thing I decided was to just jump back.”
That maneuver worked, Oswalt said, and “almost instantly, my shoulder just felt like 10 times better, like it had been welded back together or something. I was like, ‘There’s no way that fixed my shoulder.’ I’ve never had a problem since then.”
————because we are in desperation mode. :-)
Wow…what’s worse this injury situation or Lidge?
Man that Ryan Howard injury looked like an ankle break at the least. Hopefully not but damn!
Gotta hope he just turned it and he’ll be ok in a few days.
Man, this is frustrating. Why can’t we get to these middling (at best) starters. I mean, Stammen, Detwiler, and Lannan don’t really strike fear in the hearts of hitters throughout the league. We can get them in trouble but we can’t make them pay, knock them out, and win these games that we should be, and need to be, winning.
Any word on Howard?
Oh yeah, why didn’t Charlie bunt Ransom there? (I know Francisco and Brown followed with strikeouts anyway, but) At the time Francisco was 2-2 prior to his AB. You would think that even if he did not get another hit that he would at least make contact and get the runner home from 3rd with a ground out or a sac fly. This is what I was talking about the other day. The team is struggling to score runs. They had hits and base runners against Lannan but only got 2 runs across to that point, yet Charlie still would not play fundamental baseball, get the runners over, and try to score at least one run without the need for a hit (or at least to stay away from a GIDP). Instead everybody swings away, the runners don’t move, and we don’t score.
Matt Gelb has reported that x-rays for both the right elbow and left ankle were negative.
and the grandparents are good KB, thanks for asking…they’re frustrated by this series too…they got me tickets to the games Friday and Saturday…I haven’t been to a game since Werth’s walk-off against the Cubs last year so hopefully I’ll bring the Phils some luck….
That a boy Lidge. Just stay behind him and support him people, its really the only option at this point.
Pete/Dannie, good seeing you guys down here in DC this weekend. Hope you enjoyed Nats Park.
Go Phils.
<<”I really wanted the ball again today,” Lidge said.>>
I’d have loved to have checked out the body language when he said that. But it’s ridiculous psychoanalyzing him. But you don’t want to dwell on failures.
Also pointless is to guess on how long Howard’s out, but when a dude his size draws his power from the legs, and has limited defensive mobility to begin with, I’d guess it could be upwards of a couple weeks before he’s “healthy.” I kinda sorta don’t think he’ll play at all against the Fish. I inferred from the Charlie quotes in quotes that he thought he’d be back during Florida.
<<Pete/Dannie, good seeing you guys down here in DC this weekend. Hope you enjoyed Nats Park.
Go Phils.>>
I always thought Other was part of the DC population base, too. Did he not hook up with you guys?
<<I haven’t been to a game since Werth’s walk-off against the Cubs last year so hopefully I’ll bring the Phils some luck….>>
Most nights, you can’t beat fun at the old ballpark, especially when the team you root for walks off. Maybe you see another.
************************************************************************
Braves have 19 home games this month I’m told. Cards have 9 games against clubs plus .500, 12 against Houston, Pitt, Wash, and another sub .500 club.
We’ll have to see how it really goes but initially it sounds like great news on Howard:
“He’s going to be OK,” manager Charlie Manuel said. “I don’t expect him to miss very much time. If anything, he might miss a day or two. We’re off tomorrow. He might miss Tuesday or Wednesday, but he could very well be in the lineup on Tuesday. It’s going to be a short period.”
its really that kind of a year for the Phils.
i almost wish for a Brad Lidge injury so we can have an excuse to get him off the mound. thats a terrible thought. as few options as we have to play that role, its still a bad call anytime he goes up in the 9th. thats just how bad the situation is.
Phils finally get a day off. to take in everything that has happened this last 2 wks.
crazy.
Pete: is Mathieson all that we have in the farm with regards to potential reliever call up? Zagurski, nothing beyond that?
Update on the 60 game team targets to get to 93 wins:
Halladay (need 9-3 team record in his 12 starts) (0-0 so far)
Hamels (8-4) (1-0 so far)
Oswalt (8-4) (0-1)
Blanton (6-6) (0-1)
Kendrick (6-6) (0-0)
Thoughts on Nats series. First, Nats are not the pushovers they were the last two years. What Zimmerman did to lidge he has done 11 times (game winning homer) in the last 1 2/3 years – by far the most in the the league.
D. Brown doesn’t look quite ready. Maybe it is nerves, maybe it is growing into his body. But he looks raw and behind at the plate and a bit awkward in the field. With Ibanez and Fransisco picking it up, I think it is almost certain he gets sent down when Shane returns. Do not need another lefthanded outfield bat. He comes in full-time next year to take Werth’s spot.
Hamels pitching awefully well but still making that 2-3 mistakes a game to the wrong (better) hitters that keep him from elite status.
I think the only reason Lidge pitched yesterday was that Contrares was used and we went extras.
Rollins is killing this team on offense this year so far. I hear complaining about guys like Valdez swinging at the first pitch, but how many times in critical situations does rollins pop up a fast ball right down the middle? Does he learn nothing from Polanco?
Polanco, Werth, Ibanez all swinging well right now. Polanco was money all weekend. A great signing by RAJ there.
Braves have 7 with fading Mets and San Fran at home. We have 6 with Fish on Road and fading LAD at home. Halladay goes twice, which is nice. But I do not expect Howard to go, or if he does, to be effective all week. With all circumstances, I think if we come to next Monday at the same point we are now (2.5 out) that would be a good. My gut tells me we are entering a major swoon by the Braves. Prado will likely miss this week and they are left with a bunch of .250 hitters. So far they have been clutch but we will see if it can continue. The question is are the Phils good enough with their injuries to take adantage?
I wasn’t around to discuss the Lidge shenanigans, but my personal opinion is that Scott Mathieson should have been up all season to see if he had the ability to take over for Lidge. This is not 20/20 hindsight, I (we) have been calling for Mathieson all year. He’s obviously doing very well in AAA. Baez was supposed to be a back-up closer, but he’s clearly not. I’d still stick Contreras in there over Lidge right now.
Justin DeFratus is another closer prospect in AA, but I don’t think he’s quite ready.
I have a question.
Mathieson was called up for 1 game.
He threw hard, but exhibited poor control that night.
Was it the plan to have him here for just that 1 game and I wasn’t aware of it, or did somthing happen rosterwise that made them decide to demote him?
Theye didn’t decide he wasn’t ready off that 1 night, did they?
KB-
something happened, though I can’t remember what it was. Perhaps Chad Durbin coming off the DL or something?
If you move Contreras into the closer role, the void in late relief needs to be filled. Maybe that’s where Mathieson fits, if they don’t think he can close.
Here are some factors that the Braves are looking at as August unfolds.
While Prado is out, and has been their most consistent offensive weapon, you have to wonder how much longer Troy Glaus will slump. It’s been long enough that you’d have expected him to break out by now, but he hasn’t. Additionally, its entirely fair to summarize Rick Ankiel’s game as half decent, if not great. Whatever at bats he gets will be replacements for Nate McClouth who contributed nothing. The Braves are a better offensive club with him.
The Braves 19 game home schedule this month does include a 4 game series this weekend with the Giants. In other words, home or not, the Braves are not going unbeaten this week. But they do now have an extra arm in the pen in Kyle Farnsworth, who brings experience to the park. Giants-Braves should be no different than Dodgers-Giants. Pitching driven, and bullpen decided..
At the very least, you have to continue to look at this divisional race as competitive. The Braves aren’t as good as the Phils. Maybe even with Utley out (but not Howard and Utley). But their bullpen, particularly considering the way ours is used is clearly better.
Picking the Phils to win the division still involves some blind faith. If your stomach can handle another 2 months of Brad Lidge, this race figures to give you your entertainment value. And Florida keeps hanging around, no less.
Out of curiosity I peeked at the Iron Pigs’ stats to see who’s worthy of a call-up in the likely event our bullpen needs help:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=1410
Mathieson, Bastardo, Worley and Schwimer are looking good. Couldn’t help notice that Savery is at 1-9 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Any chance they’re going to start over with him as a 1B/OF? He was a helluva hitter in college.
Drolz-
Bastardo has yet to give up a run in the minors this year, not sure why he’s not back up yet. He needs to transfer his walk rate from the minors to the majors to be effective. To me, that usually says he’s trying to nibble to much in the majors and needs to have more confidence in his stuff.
Worley is a starter. Though he does have bullpen potential.
Schwimer just got called up to AAA – but he looks to be a promising bullpen arm.
I just hope RAJ and Charlie start using these guys so we can have some cheap bullpen arms and not be spending money on guys like Baez.
Two points.
One, with the amount of trades that took place in the inal couple hours Saturday, it’s pretty obvious why a ball player has the opportunity to feel really insecure as the trade deadline approaches. And if you think a major leaguer can feel insecure, imagine how the minor leaguers might feel as they are just about all tradable.
Two. With September’s 40 man rosters now less than a month away, you would think this would give the Phils an edge on the Braves. The Phils stand to have zero reason not to recall the likes of Mathieson, Bastardo and Zagurski, and it is either going to confirm optimistic views about the pen andidates, or at least defy any reason thse kids aren’t given a chance, spotty though it might wind up being in number of chances.
The Braves are said to have some great young pitching down under, but as I recall, most of it is geared to 2012, and besides, with the breadth of experience they have on their big club, that’s what they are likely going with down the stretch.
And by September 1, we hope to have Utley back. If somebody else doesn’t go down, hopefully.
KB: if you take away Lidge-ing the game in the 9th, I’d say Charlie has done about as good a job as you can managing the bullpen. if anything, its the arms that havent held up their end mostly. he has played it textbook style and used them according to their supposed roles. its worked most of the time too. am I wrong?
Speaking od D Brown’s short term future, it is a logical conclusion that Phillyfan drew earlier that he will go back down, assuming Victorino is back before month’s end. Just because Vic was DLd for 15 days doesn’t mean his oblique is on the same timetable, those can be lingering injuries.
But let’s say he is.
Probably the only player that won’t be put on the waiver wire this month is Josh Hamilton. You can count on Raul Ibanez being included in that group.
Naturally, Ibanez will, like all big contract holders, clear waivers, and from that standpoint, be tradable.
I won’t sit here and tell you confidently who might be interested in him should the Phils be willing to eat a portion of his 11 mil for next year, but Detroit lost Ordonez, the Angels, when they were in contention needed a bat. And Raul is swinging quite a bit better. Other injuries might occur.
All I’m saying is that a scheme might unfold in which out of the blue, Ibanez might be tradable all of a sudden. D Brown down the stretch playing regularly might not be what he’s ready for, but it could wind up a situation where some money is freed up for 2011, among other scenarios, including leaving some money for an all important right hand protective outfield bat.
Trading Ibanez sounds great but what do you do to replace Werth next year?
I agree, jkay. The pen on the whole has been good. I have a habit of saying bullpen when I mean Lidge, and since we’re fantasizing about replacing Lidge, I figure Contreras is the only realistic choice right now, based on experience, and he is too valuble not to have his current role filled. That would have to be by one of the call ups.
But relieving isn’t easy to fill. Every team has drama. But ours is way over the line, and being fed up is by no means an example of Phillie fans, or Philly fans, take your pick being harsh.
what do you do to replace Werth next year?>>
That’s what I’ve been asking all along. Personally, I don’t know, but its not like he’s a hall of fame level talent that’s irreplaceable. But I haven’t seen any names to this point.
Charlie hates youth – plain and simple. That’s why we are scratching our heads when these guys like mathieson come up for one game and Bastardo sits in the minors. IT is also why RAJ would have to pry Ibanez from Charlie with a pitch fork to make room for DB.
Man DB looks like a clone of Darryl Strawberry as a rookie to me.
PF-
While I don’t necessarily think you are wrong. Charlie doesn’t make the call-up decision, RAJ and co. do.
Pete, I would imagine Charlie has some input but assuming you are correct, judging by RAJ’s recent trades and signings (Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Ibanez, Polanco) RAJ isn’t a great fan of youth himself (heck, not even anyone under 31) to say the least, and seems to see it more as a means to achieve an end, not an end in itself.
RAJ loves those declining, aging 30-something year olds that he gives them 3 year deals.
RAJ’s recent trades and signings (Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Ibanez, Polanco) RAJ isn’t a great fan of youth himself>>
Well, ya know that is a pretty nice list. Lee speaks for himself. It’s being picky to find any fault with Halladay, I’m open to Oswalt not being quite what’s expected this year, but suspect he’ll be a major contributor by the time he leaves, Ibanez did make a major splash for half a season, and he has played well since the all star break, and Polanco may have been signed for too long, but nary a sign of it yet.
What younger options exsisted in those particular instances? I liked Kevin Kouzanoff from San Diego, but we might be complaining aout his strikeouts had we acquired him.
Another thing about Ruben. Last night, I read a piece that quoted him talking about the young pitchers and how at some point they have to perform so we can fill in gaps with low cost guys and not need to depend on free agency (a la Baez). Its what they want to do, go with youth, they just don’t think they have better in the system than what they have acquired in free agency and trade. Would you prefer John Mayberry to Ibanez? Andrew Carpenter to Halladay? Drabek to Cliff Lee? Maybe there should be a compromise and Mathieson should be up here. And maybe they are handling Lidge all wrong. But by and large, they know what they are doing, and at least we’re in the hunt. Players have underperformed in varying degrees, and injuries have been a factor, but you can’t say Amaro hates youth when he bent over backward to keep DB, and made some nice acquisitions of terrific players that have kept us at championship level play for a while. Personally, I think youth is a priority of his everyday, but he likes to win. Everyone of us does.
Following Brad Lidge’s self eviction from Cy Yong contention for the upteenth time, this seems a good time to revisit a poll question Pete posed back in the spring.
Who’s the most important Phil in 2010? Results weaighed quite heavily to Cole as I recall. Did you vote for Cole and is he still your guy, or is it someone else.
I abstained, unable to disconnect the Cole bone from the Hallday bone, which connects to the Werth bone, which touches the Rollins bone, etc.
If I had to vote now, I wonder how I could vote for anyone but Lidge, which is really sad, because it concedes to an expectation he will finish the year which is as ultra as depressing gets.
But who would the rest of the voting populous vote for now?
A little movement in the organization today on the relief front not likely to effect the big club.
Christopher Kissock, righty reliever has been promoted to Reading from Clearwater. Drastic improvement in his numbers over a year ago in Clearwater. 25, tall, lanky, 6-3, 2.17, WHIP down from 1.3 last year to 1.0 this season. 9th round, 2007 draft.
May or may not ever make the big club. But he’s what we need. A kid good enough to draft that shows good year over year improvement that we can at least develop inexpensively, and either bring him up at low pay, or trade. Success stories like that reduce big buck deals to free agents. Kissock, at the least, fits the profile of promotable.
If he is a kid on the rise (no clue how true that might be), he offsets the mistakes (so far anyway) like Aumont. So far is important, but it is what it is.
On Werth, John Mayberry, after all this time in the minors is not at all putting numbers together that you’d think of replacing Werth with him.
Ran across this on a tweet exploration.
<<Roy Oswalt is not very good vs NL East opponents. He’s 0-6, 7.46 era, .305 opp avg, 12 HR allowed in 13 starts. >>
Could be skewed, including against Phillies. Doesn’t phase me, but doesn’t excite me, either.
RyHo is on his way back to Philly.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/02/1758429/howard-to-have-injured-ankle-examined.html
PF -
I don’t think you should judge his trades over the past few years as being a fan of vets over youth. I think it’smore of a current “window of opportunity” with this team right now and I think you’ll see that after 2012, they’ll be looking to replentish thru the farm system and unloading some vets for prospects. Just my 2 cents.
I actually felt the team should have went all out and obtained more veterans for the said “window of opportunity”.
I think there s a time and place for winning championships and a time and place for restocking/cultivating. The phillies seem to be in the middle ground at least a little bit.
I do agree the team signs veterans for longer then is needed (Moyer for 2 years and 6.5 mil/yr, Blanton for 2 yrs and 8 mil/yr when, Ibanez, etc) The team could have kept players for shoter periods and traded raw players for major league ready players during this run.
The club is doing what it can to make the playoffs, but injuries are destroying us. Hopefully Howard will actually be full strength. If we can field a full roster by the end of the month then maybe we’ve got a chance. But we still have to make up some games. Gotta keep working.