Let’s get right to it – below you will the stats of the Phillies starters over their last 9 starts. I picked 9 because that is how many starts Cliff Lee has had since joining the Phillies.
So here is the question – presuming JA Happ comes back and pitches the way he has all year – how do you set up the playoff rotation? First, we have to look at the schedule.
10/7 – NLDS Game 1
10/8 – NLDS Game 2
10/9 – Off
10/10 – NLDS Game 3
10/11 – NLDS Game 4
10/12 – Off
10/13 – NLDS Game 5
10/14 – Off
10/15 – NLCS Game 1
10/16 – NLCS Game 2
10/17 – Off
10/18 – NLCS Game 3
10/19 – NLCS Game 4
10/20 – Off
10/21 – NLCS Game 5
10/22 – Off
10/23 – NLCS Game 6
10/24 – NLCS Game 7
Now the main questions the Phillies will have to answer…
1. Who starts Game 1? Lee or Hamels?
2. Who gets the 4th spot? Pedro or Happ?
3. Who pitches Game 3?
4. Do you break up the lefties?
We’ll have to wait until the end of the year, but here is where my head is at right now on those questions…
1. This is a really tough call for me. On one hand, Lee has been completely dominant in most of his starts for the Phillies, already throwing 3 complete game and 2 shut outs. On the other hand, he’s never pitched a single playoff inning and Hamels put together one of the best playoff performances by a pitcher in recent memory last year. Right now, the way Hamels has pitched recently (1.43 ERA over his last 5 starts), I am going towards Hamels. We know he can handle the pressure of a Game 1, and being around for his first playoff game might calm Lee’s nerves a little for the 2nd. Also – if the NLCS goes to a Game 5 – either Hamels or Lee could pitch on full rest, depending on who did better in their 1st start.
2. I know everyone is clamoring for Pedro right now – and I don’t blame them – but if Happ comes back at 100%, how can you keep a guy out of your playoff rotation who currently sits 7th in all of baseball, and 1st on your team, in ERA? Add to this that he gives up the least amount of hits and goes pretty much as deep into the game on average as Lee, and it would be stupid to leave him out, right? But then there is Pedro – who has 79.1 career playoff innings, is a big game pitcher, and who has almost the same exact peripheral numbers (K/9, H/9, BB/9) as Cliff Lee?
Maybe the question shouldn’t be who would make the better starter, but rather, who would make the better reliever? Happ was very good for the Phils as a relief pitcher in the playoffs last year, and Pedro was very good for the Dominican in the WBC. But, right now we have a dearth of lefties in the bullpen with Romero and Eyre hurting, and Happ could fill that role as well as a long relief role if any of the starters get roughed up. As long as Pedro’s velocity and movement stay where they have been for the rest of the year, I think you put Happ in the bullpen, but have him ready to go for multiple innings at a moment’s notice.
3. Heard a couple people arguing that Pedro has been good enough to supplant Blanton in Game 3. I’m not convinced, Blanton is my guy in Game 3. Since June 24th, 13 of his 15 starts have been quality starts and he has a 2.97 ERA during that span.
4. You wouldn’t break up 2 righties, so I don’t get breaking up 2 lefties. You pitch your best 2 pitchers in Games 1 and 2, unless they are exactly the same. Lee and Hamels repertoires are very different. Hamels throws nothing close to Lee’s cutter and slider, and Lee’s change-up looks nothing like Hamels.
So here is how I would set up the NLDS if it started tomorrow (it doesn’t)-
10/7 – NLDS Game 1 – Hamels
10/8 – NLDS Game 2 – Lee
10/10 – NLDS Game 3 – Blanton
10/11 – NLDS Game 4 – Martinez
10/13 – NLDS Game 5 – Hamels/Lee
So that’s what I’m thinking. What about you guys? Would you change anything?
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{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }
I agree with your projected rotation, Pete. I feel bad for Happ since he’s gotten knocked down a couple of times already, but he’s handled adversity well and has continued to thrive. Maybe if Blanton or Pedro have a rough outing in their first playoff game, and the Phils move on, they can shuffle the rotation for NLCS or World Series to include Happ.
Lots of Phils related stuff in Keith Law’s chat yesterday. I’m guessing this is you, Pete:
Pete (Philly)
how would you set up the Phillies postseason rotation?
Keith Law
(2:16 PM)
Hamels, Lee, Pedro, Blanton. Or Blanton, Pedro if Martinez needs the extra rest (and he probably does).
It continues with:
Chris (hartford, ct)
Speaking of Pedro, is he further evidence of the AAAA this year, or did the time off actually help his body recover to the extent that he’s much more effective and healthy this year?
Keith Law
(2:19 PM)
Little of both. He’s throwing harder than he was last September and showing more willingness to use his offspeed stuff. I’m not sure how much work he can handle in a calendar year, but he could pitch like this for several more years if his arm can take it.
and:
Andrew (Philly)
Not to overload you with Phils questions, but who would you throw as closer for them?
Keith Law
(2:00 PM)
If you’re forcing me to use the traditional bullpen structure – and Manuel certainly will – Madson.
and:
Jon (Jacksonville, Florida)
K-Law, do you see Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown being able to sneak in some PT next year in Philly?
Keith Law
(1:56 PM)
Taylor more likely than Brown. Someone will get hurt in Philly’s outfield – Werth has a long history of injuries, and Ibanez is getting up there in years.
and:
John (Los Angeles, Ca.)
Keith, are you still high on Phillies catcher Travis d’Arnaud? He had a great 2nd half and it looks like his power is coming. Tons of doubles. Any majors ETA? Thanks.
Keith Law
(1:34 PM)
Yes. Late 2012 or early 2013.
and finally:
Dan (Buffalo, NY)
Klaw, would you ever trade for a 19-year old that throws 98 while he’s on the DL for a shoulder strain?
Keith Law
(1:16 PM)
No. And Knapp didn’t actually throw that hard when healthy. It is amazing to me how one bogus high-end velocity number gets repeated.
haha – Pete (Philly) is me.
I agree with your playoff rotation too, Pete.
Before we get there though, I’m hoping the Phils take care of business on this road trip. The sweep of the Nats wasn’t impressive, but they did what they needed to do and took advantage of a weaker team. Now they are set up to leave both the Braves and the Marlins with nothing but the most remote chance of catching them in the division.
As for the rest of the stuff from the chat:
I wonder how Knapp will turn out coming off his surgery. Since he was the key piece in the Lee trade, no doubt that the Indians are concerned.
As per today’s paper, Charlie Manuel pretty much confirmed that Madson will close if Lidge can’t do the job.
I know it’s just an educated guess on Law’s part, but I was hoping that d’Arnaud would be ready before late 2012 or early 2013.
I would love to see Taylor in our outfield next year. Werth is making it difficult to see the Phils trading him though. Maybe Charlie will want to rest Ibanez more next year. Combine that with a few days off for Werth and Victorino and the inevitable injuries that happen along the way and just maybe the Phils would see enough playing time available to make it worthwhile to have Taylor as our 4th outfielder.
There is a lot of talk on these chats about the NL being more like a AAAA league and it drives me nuts. I’ll admit that the AL is the stronger league——–I know they haven’t lost an all-star game in something like 13 years. I know that they have a winning record every year in interleague play——–but come on already. I mean, the stupid DH rule only exists in the AL so the AL should be better, right? It shouldn’t surprise anyone and the NL should not be bashed as an inferior league because of it.
A disparity clearly exists and it is way past the time for it to be rectified one way or the other. I have never been a proponent of the DH, but the current situation bothers me even more. Since it is highly unlikely that, after almost 40 years, the DH will be eliminated, the NL must adopt the rule in the interest of levelling the playing field.
Beyond that, doesn’t it make sense that each league plays by the same rules? I mean, the AFC and the NFC play by the same football rules and the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference play by the same basketball rules, don’t they? How MLB allows this to continue is beyond me.
If the NL owners are the ones fighting the change, then they have their heads in the sand. The disparity between the leagues has pushed the issue past the point where any traditionalist argument is of enough merit to continue their resistance.
bski, much like most rules, I can see a change to the DH rule only considered when something drastic happens. And I’m talking about a pitcher getting beaned with a heater on his pitching hand or wrist, especially those that bat opposite of what they throw with their pitching hand exposed on the front side.
I am actually very surprised that this hasn’t happened yet either by accident or as a dirty, incendiery tactic to a pitcher who likes to pitch inside himself.
Oh yeah, one more thing about the NL being the weaker league. The NL has won 4 out of the last 8 world series. I know some see this as grasping at straws. I also know that this does not prove that the NL—-as a league—-is just as strong as the AL. Thing is, how much does it really matter? Leagues do not win championships, teams do, and that’s what it’s all about, isn’t it?
Even though the AL, by virtue of their superiority as a league, won the 2008 all-star game and gained home field advantage for the world series in the process, it didn’t seem to have any bearing on the Phils, did it?
I still say that the NL should adopt the DH though.
It really shouldn’t need to come to that, Stu. First and foremost it should be about continuity and having every player and every team in each league playing under the same rules, imo.
Besides, some things have happened. Last year, Wang from the Yankees injured his foot while running the bases and Steinbrenner (Hank) went ballistic.
The game continues to get more and more specialized and with salaries continually escalating you would think that every owner would want to protect their most dear investments (i.e. starting pitchers) as much as possible.
Maybe you’re right though. Maybe it will take a couple #1 starters getting knocked out for the season due to an injury like being hit by a pitch or a collision while running the bases before the NL finally decides to adopt the DH.
I personally think the DH is a joke, the players aren’t even part of the game besides once every 2 or 3 innings on average. A majority of them can’t even play the field, or are so bad that when they play in National League stadiums their teams can’t even put them on the field. Almost all of them are power hitters, raising overall offensive output of American League teams. I like the way the Senior Circuit does business.
Jayson Stark has weighed in on the Phils’ playoff rotation. From today’s chat:
Craig (Reading)
Any chance the Phillies start Blanton or Pedro in Game 2 to break up the lefties and have them throw Games 1 and 3? Or do they just start their best guys in order?
Jayson Stark
(1:59 PM)
I think they’ve kicked that around. But they have a lot of options right now, the way that rotation is pitching. And I don’t think they have it settled yet. Game 3 is always a pivotal game, so it’s worth debating. But would YOU have the courage to hold back either Hamels or Lee until Game 3? That’s the pivotal question here, isn’t it?
adam: agreed
i dunno too much bout baseball’s history but the fact that they added the DH must be insulting to the old salts who played the game. the fact that the pitcher is just some guy that throws the ball and sits and there is a non position player is a hit to the soul of baseball. you wanna see all 9 guys hustling every inning. A pitcher trying to hit is part of the game. the DH was just added to boost offense kinda like how the NBA keeps making rules to make defense harder and we get 140pt games. its just dumb that there is a guy who hits and then sits. if u’re gonna have a lumbering 4oyr old with a big bat, might as well make ‘em pay by making ‘em field a position. Heck at thia rate guys like Ryan Howard can stay in the league till theyre 90. Bonds might have reached 1000 HRs if he had jumped to the AL.
Don’t get me wrong guys. I don’t like the DH. I wish it were never introduced. I’m only advocating that the NL adopt it because there is no going back now, the same way that the season will never go back to 154 games to accomodate the extra round of playoffs and to prevent the fall classic from being played in the winter (November).
It’s all for the same reason too: money. Everything favors the offense now (and has for some time)——–smaller ballparks, smaller strike zones, etc——–because more offense=more excitement=more fans=more money, and the DH is an integral part of that equation. That’s not to mention the extended careers of and the money made by the DHs themselves, which I’m sure the player’s union does not want to see eliminated.
I agree that the game should be played by the nine men on the field and I’d rather have the AL get rid of the DH, but I just don’t see it happening. Too many things are lined up against removing the DH from the game. That leaves the NL with the decision to either fight the good fight for the sake of purity and history, continue on without the DH, and leave itself at a competitive disadvantage, or to give in and accept the DH.
I agree Pete. we need more lefties in the bullpen. Put Pedro in the rotation and let Happ do his thing from the pen.
Nice win tonight. Now we wait to find out what is going on with Happ, who apparently was brought back before he was 100% healed (can’t make that mistake again), and Ruiz, who was swinging the bat really well recently (hate to see this send him into an offensive funk heading into the playoffs).
Last night our TV guys reported that both of Ryan Howard’s home runs came off of sliders. We all talk about how undisciplined or impatient Howard is, how he doesn’t seem to recognize pitches a lot of the time, and how he chases bad balls. I took it upon myself to check into this, as far as his actual production on breaking balls and how it compares to the rest of the league.
First of all, in 2009, Ryan Howard is seeing the fewest fastballs in his career. Here are the declining percentages: 2005–58.3%, 2006–53%, 2007–51.3%, 2008–51.2%, 2009–44.4%. That is quite a drop off.
He is seeing more curveballs, but the most drastic increase is in the number of sliders he is seeing. Here are the increasing percentages: 2005–12.6%, 2006–17.6%, 2007–20.3%, 2008-20%, 2009–24.8%.
So what? Pitchers have figured out that Howard mashes the fastball and struggles with the slider so they have continued to throw him less of the former and more of the latter. Simple, right?
Here’s the thing though, Ryan Howard leads all of baseball in runs above average against the slider at 12.3 (Ryan Braun is 2nd at 10.4, Matt Holliday is 3rd at 10.2, Chase Utley is 4th at 8.8). Howard’s production against the slider has skyrocketed this year (it was -6.6 in 2008 and -8.6 in 2007), which flies in the face of all the chasing and bad ball swinging we see from him.
Any diminished production we may see from him this year (the season is not over yet) will be directly attributable to a decline in his production off of fastballs. Check out his precipitous drop in runs above average against the fastball over the last few years: 2006–55.4, 2007-37.9, 2008–23.6, 2009–15.8.
Oops, almost forgot to cite my source. All stats were taken from Ryan Howard’s page and the MLB leaderboard for pitch value on fangraphs.com.
fangraphs is an awesome site, especially since they could easily charge a membership fee for their info and they don’t.
bski: ‘First of all, in 2009, Ryan Howard is seeing the fewest fastballs in his career.’ – I noticed that, I didnt know there were stats to support it. Wow baseball is the ultimate stat game. Some pitchers would just send a steady diet of breaking balls at him and the occasional high fastball.
Our players are being swatted like flies with the injury bug. Happ, Ruiz, maybe Pedro. It would be incredible if this team can repeat, limping into the postseason.
Yeah, the injuries are piling up. who knows who we’ll have and what we’ll get from them the rest of the way. It will be interesting to see how we shape up over the next two weeks. Time to break out the duct tape, crazy glue, 3-in-1 oil, etc……