The Phillies are back-to-back NL East Champions!
What a game. I was at an engagement party, but I had myself hidden down in the basement going back and forth between the Phils and the Notre Dame/Purdue game. At one point, the bride’s 8-year-old cousins came down, and then went up and reported that a “strange man was in the basement getting angry at the television,” the bride responded “oh… that’s just Pete.” Good times all around.
So we know we’re in, and we know we’re home. But we don’t know who we play. The question is… who do we WANT to play? Here’s a quick comparison.
Rotation
Dodgers: The Dodgers have already announced they will go with Derek Lowe (3.24 ERA) in Game 1, Chad Billingsley (3.14 ERA) in Game 2 and Hiroki Kuroda (3.84 ERA) in Game 3. Game 4 would either be Greg Maddux (5.09 ERA) or the young Clayton Kershaw (4.30 ERA).
Brewers: The Brewers have the best #1 of these 2 teams in CC Sabathia. He’s pitching today, so he wouldn’t be available until Game 2 (if he pitched on 3-days rest again) or maybe Game 3. After that they have Ben Sheets, who has been hurt and was awful yesterday, followed by Dave Bush (4.18 ERA) and likely Jeff Suppan (4.96 ERA).
Advantage: Dodgers
Line-Up
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez has played so well since joining the Dodgers that he has put himself into the MVP discussion. However, after him, they don’t have a whole to be feared. Their top 3 RBI guys are James Loney (90 RBI), Matt Kemp (76 RBI) and Andre Ethier (76 RBI). Not exactly murderers row.
Brewers: There are two mashers in the middle of the Brewers line-up in Ryan Braun (36 HR, 104 RBI) and Prince Fielder (34 HR, 102 RBI). They also have some good depth with Corey Hart (91 RBI), JJ Hardy and Mike Cameron. Not as good as the Phillies line-up, but a solid squad.
Advantage: Brewers
Bullpen
Dodgers: A 3.29 bullpen ERA with two legit closers (Saito and Broxton) shutting the door.
Brewers: A 3.89 bullpen ERA with Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota involved.
Advantage: Dodgers
Momentum/Record
Dodgers: The Dodgers are 17-7 in September. Their season series with the Phillies ended 4-4, with each team winning a lopsided 4-game sweep at home.
Brewers: The Brewers are 9-15 in September and the Phillies won the season series 5-1.
Advantage: Dodgers
So who do we want?
It’s pretty clear when you lay it out like this. Even though the Brewers have the better overall record, the Dodgers have 3 things that are key to playoff success: Good starting pitching, a shut-down bullpen, and momentum going into the playoffs. So, let’s root for the Brewers to win, the Mets to lose and get ready to go on Wednesday (which better not be a day game during work again).
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{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }
Brewers!!!
Who cares!!!!
OK, I posted without reading your post, and you make strong case in favor of the Brewers, but really, it’s not like either team is a powerhouse.The Phils should be able to take either team, and I will be disappointed if they don’t
It doesn’t matter who we want anymore because the Marlins just put down the Mets, so we are getting the Brewers!
Everything played out just like I said…and hoped. Sabathia threw a complete game (122 pitches) and gave the Brewers exactly what they needed. Meanwhile, the Mets came up small…again!
We are set up pretty well so I’m expecting us to make some noise this year.
P.S. It was great to see pretty much every guy off the bench step in and contribute today. Nice to end the season on a winning note.
Beat the Brewers and hopefully we could give CC a reason for him to go to Philadelphia next season!!
3PM ON WEDNESDAY!!! Such BS.
Ben Sheets out with broken arm
It makes me a bit nervous that the entire cast of Baseball Tonight is picking the Phils to beat the Brewers.
Looks like we will be getting Sabathia in games 2 and 5. Game 2 will be his 4th consecutive start on 3 days rest. If it wasn’t for the fact that the Brewers have to go through us, I would love to see how long Sabathia can continue this before he finally blows apart.
I’d like to send out a big thank you to Mark Reynolds, our new strikeout record holder with 204. I can’t believe Howard ended under 200 (199 again) for the season. I’m also amazed at his end of season numbers. Pretty much everything (runs, doubles, hr, rbi,) is right in line with his previous seasons. The glaring exception is walks. In 2006 he had 108. In 2007 he had 107. In 2008 he had only 81. If you give him 26 more walks, his average climbs to .262 (2007 was .268) and his OBP goes up to .362 (2007 was .392).
I’m not saying those numbers (avg. and obp) are fantastic. I also know that he did not get those numbers this year. However, if you check, you will find the difference between this year and his MVP 2006 comes down to 29 hits and 27 walks, which amounts to 1 hit and 1 walk per week. That’s not a ridiculous drop off, but it goes to show that a little less production each week adds up to noticeably diminshed numbers at the end of the season. I am hoping that he grows as a hitter and can get those 29 hits and 27 walks back.
Obviously, consistency throughout the season will go a long way toward that end. To break it down even further, in 2006 Howard had 37 intentional walks. In 2007 he had 35. This year he had 17. So, of the 27 walk deficit he needs to make up, 18-20 were because of not getting intentional walks. This is where the consistency comes in (It also shows that his knowledge of the strike zone or his plate discipline really wasn’t that different this year compared to other years.). Howard had long stretches of ineffectiveness this year when there was no need to walk him intentionally, and it hurt him and us.
Even with this slippage he is getting a lot of MVP buzz, courtesy of his smoking September and the fact the we won the division. The vote will be interesting.
Just a few odds and ends floating around in my brain.
Today, Gavin Floyd is scheduled to pitch in an attempt to extend the White Sox season. The Tigers are sending Freddy Garcia to the mound in opposition.
Yesterday, Wes Helms hit the go ahead home run in the Marlins win over the Mets. At least we were able to get some production out of him, even though it was indirect. I guess it’s only fair since we paid his salary this year.
In 1980, the Phils clinched the NL East with a victory over the Expos in Montreal on the second to last day of the season. I know we clinched against the Nationals at home, but it could still be a good omen, right?
Floyd and Garcia engaged in a pitchers’ duel… who’da thunk it? I’m watching in bemusement as Floyd shows some gung-ho. When he pitched for the Phils he had a deer-in-the-headlights look. More power to him – I just wish we’d done a better job bringing him along. Hopefully, the outlook for Happ, Carrasco, et al, is much brighter.
congrats to all Phillies fans
I know I am late but I don’t follow baseball much,
I just wanted to express my feelings, I’m happy for Philly fans in general, let’s hope that Sixers can do what Phillies did and still can do