I was as surprised as anyone that the Phillies declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. If they had, and the players had signed with another team, the Phillies would have received 2 high draft picks, as they did with Aaron Rowand last year. I’m of the opinion that the Phillies should invest as much as they can in the farm system, and I think they feel the same way. So what gives?
The short answer? The economy.
The long answer? Both Burrell and Moyer fall into the category of decent, but not elite, free agents. As of right now, there is virtually no market for these players because teams are worried about increasing payroll. Sabathia, Texieira, Lowe and Manny won’t be affected, but everyone else will. Had they offered both Burrell and Moyer, chances are, they both would have accepted because there isn’t an outside market for their services. While the Phils wouldn’t mind having both back, both would have made significantly more than they deserve through arbitration. Burrell would have likely gotten around $16 million, and Moyer in the neighborhood of $8-10 million. The Phillies feel that they can retain the services of Moyer for less, I imagine, and they doubt he’ll sign with another team. Burrell, on the other hand, is not worth anywhere close to $16 million, even for one season, and if he accepted, that would bring our payroll up to around $120 million and virtually end our off-season. I imagine Amaro would rather make a couple smaller moves than end the off-season in December with Burrell.
The Phillies were not the only team to do this. The Yankees, in an equally surprising move, did not offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte or Bobby Abreu. The Diamondbacks did not offer to Adam Dunn. The Cardinals did not offer any of their free agents arbitration.
So while I’m disappointed we won’t be getting the draft picks, my guess is that the Phillies believed they wouldn’t be getting them anyway and want to see what other options are out there.
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{ 20 comments… read them below or add one }
The short answer is this – they’re stupid and still run by idiots who got lucky last year and will coast on that good will and do stupid things like this
Seems like a completely legitimate reason for the non-offer. I thought Burrell was ripping us off at $14mil, but at $18mil??? Thats highway robbery!! If they decide to keep him for a few more years, I am hoping its for something like $7-9mil.
The same goes for Moyer who could get $4-5mil and be a good deal for both sides.
7-9 million for Pat Burrell…ripping us off?
I mean he’s lucky to get away from the Philadelphia fans no doubt, but it was a stupid move by the phillies, plain and simple…he’s a type A free agent for a reason.
7-9 million dollars? Seriously, when will reality settle in to how economics work in baseball to Philadelphia baseball fans, who would probably value the performance of David Eckstein over the performance of Pat Burrell…even if they made the same money…
john -
read the post. he was saying $18 million would be ripping us off.
Burrell would likely have accepted, do you think he’s worth $18 million?
I read his post – your constant reminding to read posts is irritating and tiresome
A. 7-9 million dollars as the ‘worth’ of pat burrell demonstrates ignorance not only of what Burrell does but the economics of baseball
B. Do you have any support for the 18 million dollar number or is it the propaganda from the phillies you believe justifying this move.
Whatever, the dark ages still reign here….adios
John, so do you have a #5 Burrell jersey that you just don’t want to part ways with? $18mil for Burrell, who is on the decline of his career, is a rip off to the team, fans, and major league baseball. In my mind his value is that of $7-9mil, which I feel is fair to both sides. Burrell will not get the $14mil from anyone in baseball that he made last year, and with his emotional ties and publicly announcing that he wants to stay here in Philly, that $7-9mil would be fair. We are the BEST team in the league and have the negotiating ability to get a guy at a value right now.
Burrell’s worth whatever he can fetch on the free and open market folks. So let’s see what other offers he gets. Obviously he’s not worth $18 to the Phillies and obviously for $9 million they’d sign him. So let’s see what other numbers are offered.
John –
if you would like to play the ignorance card, then we should probably discuss your ignorance of the current state of they economy and the affect it is having on baseball. that was kind of the point of this post. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports said that guys like Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell might have to settle for 2 year, $18 million dollar offers because that’s all that will be out there. Hence no arbitration offers for either. But I guess he’s ignorant as well.
I’m not even sure I agree with the move, I was simply explaining to people WHY they made it.
It is sad to me that you can’t find happiness in the fact the Phillies just won the WORLD FREAKIN’ SERIES. I don’t get it? Were you at the parade booing and calling them phonies? Were you pissed when they won? Do you go to Dick’s Sporting Goods and scream at people for buying championship gear and buying into the propaganda on the front that says “World Champions.”? Do you tell them its just a marketing scheme and was all luck as they hurridly whisk their children away?
I’ll always say when I disagree with the Phillies, but if you are looking for a blog that hates the Phillies, this one ain’t for you.
I guess the move makes sense. Amaro doesn’t wamt his hands to be tied because of too much salary. If he learned from Gillick then he’ll stick to the payroll flexibility/lots of small moves to round out the team rather than one star player. Hey it worked this year.
The opposite strategy failed for the Mets. Last off season they put all their eggs in the Johan basket and left gapping holes (old injured players) in the outfield, back of the rotation and most importantly the bulpen.
While the Phils got Lidge for less money and were able to get key contributors Durbin, Feliz in the offseason and Blanton, Stairs, Jenkins, Eyre during the season.
It worked so far so I’ll trust their strategy until it stops working.
Also of interest to the Phillies are what free agents will require them to give up a draft pick if signed.
From MLB.com:
Players that were extended the arbitration offer included CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Raul Ibanez, Jason Varitek and Orlando Hudson.
Included among the players that did not make the arbitration roll call were Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Brad Penny, Kerry Wood, Garret Anderson, Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria, Adam Dunn and Randy Johnson.
Pete, unfortunately “John” is the first nitwit commenter I’ve encountered on this excellent site. Send him back to commenting on ESPN.com with the rest of the uninformed masses.
Completely agree that $18 is ridiculous for Burrell, and even $7-$9 million is pushing it. Let’s not forget his concrete legs and his long slumps…no thanks.
well said Stu!
Burrell needs to be at a bargain. regardless of his worth, just think about World Series MVP Hamels lefty-20 sumthin, former MVP Howard and his rising arbitration cost, sudden star outfielder Shane Victorino (yes he’s a star, doesnt have to hit home runs to play like one), Ryan Madson and his new set-up role, best pinch-hitter in all baseball Greg Dobbs, now everyday starter Jayson Werth – i could go on but point is these guys will all want AND BELIEVE THAT THEY DESERVE some serious money. you wanna keep Burrell you’d better think bout them first. Hamels contract might come next season. it will be HUGE if he has a good agent. then you got Myers (resign?) and the bull pen to think about.
This is a loaded time for GMing, you pinch pennies you might be able to keep ‘em all in the next 2 yrs. Championship teams always get picked apart by free agency once they are successful, remember that. only reason Boston hasn’t is because they have money like rice. we don’t. at least management says that anyway.
besides Victorino has shown us that you can win games by yourself on defense. burrell’s legs might not be a bad thing to lose right?
great post Pete.
I’d like to exchange links, either email me or drop a comment on my blog if interested.
Well done, Pete and thanks for stoking the hot stove with a few Phillies topics.
I can certainly understand why the Phils declined to offer arbitration to Burrell. They would have greatly overpaid for his services if they went that route. There is no sense in jacking up the price if we’re the only one bidding.
I’m with bball (post #9) on this. To borrow his phrase, if we put all our bucks into Burrell’s basket (like the Mets did with Santana) I really think it would come back to bite us.
As for Moyer, while I do understand it, it seems a bit risky to me. I get that we would most likely end up overpaying for his services, but there is more to consider than just that.
First of all, we are talking about pitching. Everyone wants pitching and Amaro has stated that pitching is our priority as well. I can’t help thinking that somebody will be desperate enough to offer Moyer a guaranteed two-year deal.
Second, I don’t know how we would go about filling that hole in the rotation. Bringing in someone else will almost certainly cost more, whether in terms of overall dollars, dollars per year, length of contract, players or prospects we move in a trade, or surrendering draft picks if we sign a type-A. Looking at it that way, Moyer is probably the best option we have to hold down the #4 spot in our rotation for 2009.
Third, even if Moyer accepted arbitration and we ended up overpaying him, it would only be for one year. That doesn’t bother me so much. In this way I’m looking at one more year of Moyer as allowing Carrasco another full year to develop. Like Pete said, we don’t want another Gavin Floyd situation, so investing a bit more in Moyer for 2009 could very well pay big dividends for us in 2010 and beyond.
Amaro was at the GM meetings a few weeks ago and I’m sure is in almost constant contact with the other GM’s around the league. As such, I’m guessing he has a read on the general attitude of his counterparts and a fair impression of the outlook around the league. This, coupled with the Phils current situation (team needs, 10 arbitartion eligible players, etc…), certainly informed his decision. As we’ve talked about before, of the two, Burrell is definitely easier to replace should he leave. I’m hoping that Moyer’s ties to the area and the fact that he’s at the tail end of his career will keep him here for less.
I think that if the Phillies don’t re-sign Moyer (I still see this as unlikely), they will sign someone like Braden Looper.
I also expect them to sign Russ Springer or Doug Brocail, neither of which were offered arbitration, to replace Rudy Seanez.
I’m still hopeful that something a little more exciting comes up at the Winter Meetings.
also, I’m pretty sure that John character was Jason Michaels.
Or maybe it was Pat Burrell himself? We’re onto you Pat.
Yeah, I could use some excitement from the Phils because we’re sure not getting any from the Sixers.
@JDubbz: LMAO!!
Get em Pete!! I always knew Jason Michaels was a douche. I understand the logic behind not offering either player arb, but I still like the security of receiving draft picks if the players get signed elsewhere. That said I really dont think that any team would make a run at them with such a high cost. I like what Amaro is doing with his wait and see approach because the economy is going to force teams to cut payroll. The Phils however will not be cutting their payroll. This is going to turn into a buyers market soon enough and the Phils are going to cash in. Be patient. Smell that? It smells like Gillick-ball to me