Each year, Dannie and I hone in one a single player that we want the Sixers to select in the draft.
Last year we thought Evan Turner was the pick, by a hair, over Derrick Favors
In 2009, we championed Ty Lawson, though we didn’t think Jrue was falling to us and hardly included him in our initial analysis. But to be fair, we would have probably said Lawson anyway.
And in 2008, the first draft we had the blog for, we wanted JJ Hickson (and begged the Sixers to find a way to get into the 2nd round and get Mario Chalmers).
I’d say we did pretty well on the Hickson call, got the Lawson call wrong (but it’s not like he’s been bad), and time will tell on Turner over Favors.
So who do we like this year?
First it should be noted that I (Pete) am not a scout of any kind. I think I am decent at telling if someone can play in the NBA if I watch them more that a couple times, but I’m not expecting a call from Rod Thorn anytime soon (especially since he’s probably sleeping). I always think numbers are important, and I think that measurements are important as well.
This year, I’ve narrowed my focus down to four guys: 21-year-old Kenneth Faried, 21-year-old Markieff Morris, 20-year-old Tristan Thompson and 20-year-old Nikola Vucevic.
First I’ll quickly explain why those four…
- I’m focused solely on PF/C positions – even if Iguodala is traded – so no Jordan Hamilton, Jimmer, etc…
- I think that Derrick Williams, Enes Kanter, Bismack Biyombo, Jan Vesely, Marcus Morris and Jonas Valenciunas will definitely be picked before #16 – I would probably put any of them who dropped ahead of the four (though, except for Williams and maybe Kanter, I wouldn’t put any WAY ahead)
- I can’t really say much about Donatas Motiejunas, but I can say I tend to not care for rail-thin Euros who aren’t defensively minded. He’s got some nice positives on his DraftExpress profile – but his “weaknesses” make me cringe.
- I think that JaJuan Johnson and Trey Thompkins are worth mentioning, and would love to get either in the 2nd round
So that leaves us with 4 PF/C’s who might be there, and who I think are worth talking about.
The Stats
First I want to look at their stats from last college season. These are per 36 minutes.
- Morris’ numbers impressed me once converted to 36 min because I didn’t know that he only played 24 mpg. He has a nice combination of shooting touch (42.4% from 3) and rebounding ability (12.2)
- Faried’s defensive numbers (15 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 2.0 spg) are excellent for a big man (or anyone for that matter)
- Only the blocks stand out for Thompson, who had a disappointing rebound rate and very poor 48.7% FT%
- For Vucevic, I would have though a guy of his size would have better rebound/block numbers as well as a better FG%. But his FT% shows he can shoot it very well for his size
The Measurements
- The first thing I’m looking at with these guys is “Max Vert Reach” which is essentially a combination of height, length and athleticism. Both Thompson and Faried are up there at nearly 12 feet. Two points of comparison from previous drafts are Brook Lopez and Wesley Johnson.
- Morris is tall – but has a so-so wingspan for his height and doesn’t appear to have the athleticism of Faried or Thompson.
- Vucevic….well….let’s just say that he doesn’t look like much of an athlete. When I saw his numbers and size, I immediately thought of what made him different from Spencer Hawes. Well, he’s bigger (1.25 inches taller, 4 inch longer reach), but his vert and agility are worse than Hawes, so I think it’s fair to say he’s not exactly an explosive player. His weak rebound and block numbers for a player his size back this up (Hawes had a horrible 7.9 rebounds per 36 in his one college season and a respectable 2.1 blocks).
What the Scouts say…
Draft Express and Chad Ford are probably the most well-known NBA draft sites out there, so I’ll use their reports as a baseline here.
Thompson (Ford: 9, DE: 18)
Basic Scouting Report: Very athletic, raw offensive game, will need to develop in league, excellent motor, good handle for a big man.
DE Best Case: Tyrus Thomas (w/better intangibles)
DE Worst Case: Shorter Jordan Hill (couldn’t it have just been Tyrus Thomas?)
Morris (Ford: 22, DE: 17)
Basic Scouting Report: Athletic, solid finisher and shot-maker but lacks offensive “game”, good defender, turnover-prone
DE Best Case: Rasheed Wallace (w/o the crazy)
DE Worst Case: Stronger Ersan Ilyasova
Faried (Ford: 20, DE: 19)
Basic Scouting Report: Extraordinary rebounder, relentless motor, good athlete, raw offensive game
DE Best Case: Better Rebounding Udonis Haslem
DE Worst Case: Louis Amundson
Vucevic (Ford: 27, DE: 26)
Basic Scouting Report: Good shooter, OK handle for a big man, has finesse moves around the basket, competes on the defense end but has trouble with NBA caliber athletes.
DE Best Case: Mehmet Okur
DE Worst Case: David Andersen
Summary
Thompson - More of an upside pick it would appear. He has talent, but is no lock to reach it. Is a great athlete, but didn’t test out as a freak. I think the Tyrus Thomas comp. works, but he is smaller and not as athletic – however unlike Thomas, he has the drive to reach his full potential.
Morris – Seems to be a little bit of everything well, but nothing great. He can shoot it, he is an adequate defender, he plays hard, he has OK measurables. I think the Rasheed Wallace comp. is generous and see him more as a good, back-up PF for a good team.
Vucevic – I compared him to Spencer Hawes earlier, but I think he could be a better player than Hawes. He has similar defensive shortcomings but he is bigger than Hawes, a better rebounder and possibly a better shooter. Considering I don’t like Hawes, this isn’t exactly a compliment, but it’s not a total shot either.
Which brings me to the guy you already knew I was going to pick….
Faried – Unlike the other options, Faried has an elite skill (rebounding) that will absolutely translate at the next level. His size and athleticism (more on this later) mean that he has a good chance to carry over his solid defense to the next level as well. His offensive game is a work in progress and will probably never be great, but I don’t really see a 10+ ppg scorer in the other group above. In the series against Miami, the Sixers were hurt by the lack of a defensive inside presence as well as some poor work on the defensive boards (Miami averaged 13.4 offensive boards per game), both areas Faried would address. As an added bonus, Faried’s demeanor and passion would make him an instant fan favorite, and frankly, this organization needs to get fans in the seats any way possible.
Obviously one concern with Faried is the fact that he spent the vast majority of his career playing against non-BCS competition.
In games against Florida, Ohio State, Kentucky and Louisville in his Jr. and Sr. years he average 16 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 2.8 spg and 1.8 bpg.
For me, there was also concern that he didn’t truly have the athleticism and size to play effectively in the NBA and I wanted to take a look at his combine measurements compared to guys who he has been compared to.
Here is who I picked… Haslem and Amundson (DE comps), DeJuan Blair and Reggie Evans (similar college players) and Paul Millsap (only other college player in recent years to average 15 rebound/40, and 2 steals and blocks /40)
That is sorted by Max Vert Reach, where Faried holds a 2.5 inch advantage over everyone. Only Amundson has a vertical jump better than Faried and no one (who was tested) had better body fat %. Again, only Amundson did better in the agility and sprint.
So what’s the point of all this? Yes, Faried put up numbers against high level competition, and not only is his body suited for the NBA, it’s actually better suited than pretty much all of his comparisons.
And that’s really the bottom line. I think his numbers, measurements and scouting reports show that Faried can be a more athletic DeJuan Blair, a Reggie Evans with a far more complete game, a less-talented offensively Paul Millsap.
No, that’s not an all-star, but its the type of player every team could use and the type of player our team dramatically lacks right now.
If no one has a Jrue Holiday-like drop in this draft, I hope the Sixers make the right move and take Kenneth Faried. If not, I’d rank the other 3 as Morris, Thompson, Vucevic.
Next week before the draft, I’ll put together a list of 2nd rounders I’d like the Sixers to target. I actually think there are a lot of decent ones in this draft.
I like Morris on paper better than any of these guys, but I got to see Faried play in person in that game against the Gators and he almost single-handedly won the game (Florida won 61-55) for Morehead State. He put up 20 and 18, and while he is still very raw offensively and didn’t actually make a jump shot, he absolutely dominated the paint in the game against the Gator bigs (Chandler Parsons and Patric Young are 6’10″, Alex Tyus is 6’9″, and Vernon Macklin is 6’11″) and got most of his points on dunks and layups…so while his lack of height might be a concern, I think because of the numbers Pete posted above and the fact that he has shown he’ll produce against bigger players should make it less of one….
Great insight.
I actually think he’s being undervalued a bit because people assume he padded his numbers a bit in the smaller conference. This isn’t really true.
Noah actually has a smaller standing reach, and his max vert reach is only 1 inch higher. Didn’t realize they would be that close.
Pete – I’ve been a huge fan of Faried since I read the SI article on him early in College Hoops season and then tried to follow him as much as possible. I think he would be a great “energy” type pick for the Sixers. He reminds me of a more offensively skilled but smaller Joakim Noah. I just checked and actually though 3 inches shorter Faried’s wingspan is only 1 inch less
As for Vucevic I really hope the Sixers do not draft him. I watch a lot of Pac-10 basketball and though at times Vucevic looked great he often would disappear for extended periods in a game and seemed to get frustrated and takes himself out of a game very easily if his shots do not fall early. In general he just seemed to be a very inconsistent player and those are the types of players who drive me crazy….
I’ll certainly take a Joakim Noah-lite
Ronny Turiaf is another NBA player that comes to mind as far as a Faried-comparison, but the Millsap, Haslem, R. Evans are definitely on spot.
Honestly this draft is a bit tricky, because we may wind up trading Iguodala, and if that’s true, likely the best pick would be a wing man/SF tye like Jordan Hamilton. But with Iguodala right now, our obvious biggest need is size, and Faried would be a nice pick.
The one downside would be that we are already playing Thad as our “supersub” SF/PF off the bench, 6’8, so Faried would basically be getting scrap minutes from Nocioni. He couldn’t really serve as a true backup to Hawes, as despite his wingspan he’s too undersized to play Center effectively at the NBA level in longer spurts than 5 minutes or so. This means if Faried is out there at PF, Thad is on the bench (a negative, as he brings offense Faried lacks)…or if Iguodala is on the bench and Thad at SF, Faried at PF…well, an interesting combination.
My pick would still be to roll the dice with Jeremy Tyler on a legit 7 footer with the idea of a risk/reward pick at the 16 spot. I’m also curious to hear more about Maryland’s Jordan Williams, who I have not seen play, but looks good on paper and has legit size for the PF spot.
I think Faried could play some 5 in a smaller line-up. As I wrote above, he’s not ALL that much smaller than Joakim Noah.
Tyler is intriguing, but I think 16 is too high – maybe try to trade up to the top of the 2nd round if he is still around?
I personally prefer JaJuan Johnson over Williams. Williams screams Sean May/Mike Sweetney, only less talented, to me.
play the 5 at 225lbs? mAgainst some lineups, maybe but I see him more playing with Brand at the 5.
He reminds me of a more offensively skilled but smaller Joakim Noah.
I’ve seen a lot more of Noah than Faried but I will say that if Faried improves his shot or his post-up game at all than he’ll be a better scorer than Noah because Noah really hasn’t improved either since leaving Florida, but Noah is far and away a better passer and I’ll take his basketball IQ over most big men….
Yeah, Noah’s passing and bball IQ certainly appear to be a big difference between the two.
I should also note that if we DO go the guard route – Marshon Brooks would far and away be my choice
Fantastic read, possible the best sixers post that I have seen in a while. I’ll run along now before I get banned again.
The only concern i’d have is his weight – on par with Amundsen, but at least 25lbs ligher than anyone else he’s being compared to in the charts above. Actually, his height/weight measurements are almost exactly the same as Thad’s. I’d just wonder if he has the beef to win positioning battles in the NBA.
Still, probably a good pick.
Yeah, 225 is light, BUT, unlike Thad, he’s a really strong 225.
And – you can put on some bulk once you get the NBA trainers with you, not the Morehead St. guys.
I haven’t seen him play – didn’t have time to watch much college ball this past year. I’d be willing to take a flier based on his production, but i think i’ll have my reservations til i see him in action against bigs who are actually big… I think its something i focus on especially with this team because we’ve been pretty soft up front since Evans left town.
Pete: great post. like the comparisons. didn’t any of the four work out for the Sixers?
Vucevic has, I think they liked him. Morris comes in tomorrow I think. Thompson thinks he is going much higher and won’t come and I don’t know about Faried.
Could keith benson fall to the sixers in the second round?
Chad Ford has the Sixers taking Tristan Thompson in his latest mock draft…mentions Markieff Morris and Jordan Hamilton as other possible options, not Faried…has Faried going 21 to Portland….
I haven’t read a single sentence in a single article connecting us to Faried. Not sure why…
Think of it this way. Our bigs are Hawes (may or may not be back), Speights (May or may not be back), Brackins (may or may not be an NBA player), Brand (6’8″ish), Thad (6’8″). Unless there’s a Plan B to bring in a center some other way, or there is a plan match any offers Hawes might get, can we afford to draft another undersized big?
This team currently constructed doesn’t have one legit post up player. Not one on the roster and not one in years. I know this guy Faried is getting a lot of play. But can they find someone to dump the ball down to that would command a double team? Inside out. Which one of these kids could eventually become a go to post up player? That’s the guy I’d hope they draft.
I don’t think there is any way Jimmer falls past Utah at 12. They need to sell tickets after shipping out Deron Williams and Jimmer would certainly do that. Not that I think he will be anything more than a role player (if that) in the NBA.
Here you go Pete, from Chad Ford’s chat earlier today:
Tyrone (Bahamas)
Chad.. ….do you see the sixers trading Iggy to a team in the top three and drafting Kanter?
Chad Ford
(1:35 PM)
Iguodala is available … and if they could get in the Top 3, they would be able to add a big man. I think the Sixers regret passing on Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins in last year’s draft. This could help rectify it. I’d have serious interest if I were the Jazz or Cavs. Iguodala is under rated. Warriors and Clippers have also been trying to get him. If the Sixers are at 16, most likely they go big with a guy like Tristan Thompson, Markieff Morris or Nikola Vucevic. Kenneth Faried is also a possibility here.