The perfect World Series. In March, if you had asked me to pick the World Series I would have most liked to see, this is what I would have said, probably while laughing a little at the impossibility of it actually happening. The Phillies against the Rays, an upstart squad full of exciting young players, the 2nd lowest payroll in the majors, the worst record in the league last year, and the one team capable of completely ticking off both Yankees and Red Sox fans by appearing.
So how do we match up? We didn’t play them once this year, and they weren’t often on national TV, so Phillies fans aren’t terribly familiar with them. I’m going to do this preview in the same format I did the NLCS, because people seemed to enjoy it, and I got the prediction right. Note: I apologize for some strange formatting on the tables.
The Aces
Cole Hamels/Brett Myers
vs.
Scott Kazmir/James Shields
You really could put Garza here instead of Kazmir, but he won’t pitch until Game 3, so this is how the match-up is going to be. I love the fact that Scott Kazmir (traded by the Mets for Victor Zambrano) pitching Game 1 against the Phillies (broken the Mets’ hearts 2 straight years) will likely cause many Mets fans to develop a nervous twitch.
Here is how these pitchers match up through their first 2 series:
|
|
W-L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
|
Hamels/Myers |
5-0 |
34.0 |
2.65 |
1.00 |
32 |
|
Kazmir/Shields |
2-2 |
35.0 |
3.86 |
1.46 |
26 |
I don’t really have go any further on this one. Even if you were factoring in the DH line-ups the Rays faced, the top-2 Phillies starters have clearly outpitched the Rays’ top-2. The most glaring number here is the 1.46 baserunners per inning. If the Phillies can keep that number there, they might be in good shape leaving Tampa.
Of course, you could still argue that this is too small a sample size, so we’ll look at the numbers since the all-star break just to make sure:
|
|
W-L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
|
Hamels/Myers |
12-8 |
173.0 |
3.01 |
1.17 |
145 |
|
Kazmir/Shields |
12-5 |
162.0 |
3.56 |
1.25 |
135 |
Yup, this is an easy one. Edge to the Phillies.
The Mids
Jamie Moyer/Joe Blanton
vs.
Matt Garza/Andy Sonnastine
These guys have had enough playoff starts now that we can look at their numbers and compare.
|
W-L |
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
|
|
Moyer/Blanton |
1-2 |
16.1 |
6.61 |
1.78 |
16 |
|
Garza/Sonnastine |
4-1 |
32.0 |
3.38 |
1.13 |
19 |
Those numbers are completely pulled down by Moyer (Blanton has a 3.27 ERA in his 2 starts), but regardless, there is no rational reason you can pick the Phillies here. Garza was spectacular in the ALCS, earning MVP honors. However, he pitched about 120 pitches in each of his last 2 starts, so it’s possible the Phils could benefit from a tired arm in Game 3.
One thing to add: none of these Rays pitchers are unhittable. They just let up enough runs so that their hitters can score more. Should be an offensively dominated series. Edge to the Rays.
Leadoffs
Jimmy Rollins/Shane Victorino
vs.
Akinori Iwamura/B.J. Upton
As I said in the NLCS preview, “these guys need to get on base, bother the pitcher, run the bases and score runs.” Of course, Victorino and Upton have completely reversed this idea by being the main RBI guys for their teams so far in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at how these pairs have stacked up during the playoffs:
|
|
OBP |
Runs/G |
SB/G |
RBI/G |
|
Rollins/Victorino |
0.339 |
1.1 |
0.67 |
1.44 |
|
Iwamura/Upton |
0.362 |
1.8 |
0.36 |
1.73 |
Upton has been the best offensive player in the playoffs not named Ramirez. He’s hit 7 HR’s in 11 games after hitting just 9 in 145 games during the season. He’s a tremendously talented player who seems to be coming into his own at just the right time. As good as Victorino has been, Upton has been better. Rollins and Iwamura are a wash in terms of how they’ve played in the playoffs with Rollins clearly the better overall player, but that doesn’t make up for Upton’s prowess. If Rollins starts driving in some runs (he only has 2 on his leadoff HRs), he could sway this area to the Phillies, but right now, it’s all about Upton. Edge to the Rays.
RBI Guys
Chase Utley/Ryan Howard/Pat Burrell
vs.
Carlos Pena/Evan Longoria/Carl Crawford
This group features two of the best, if not the 2 best young players in the game. Chase Utley is far and away the best second baseman in baseball, and next year, Evan Longoria will cement himself as the best all-around third baseman in the game. If either of these guys were on the Yankees, they’d have to create a whole new ESPN channel to cover their every movement. Real baseball fans not in Tampa or Philly should be looking forward to watching these guys play.
OK, now that that’s out of the way, lets look at the trios here. These guys are the ones that pile up the numbers in the regular season, but in the playoffs, it’s such a small sample they aren’t always the ones leading the way. They are supposed to be the main run producers in the playoffs, so let’s see how they’ve done in that regard:
|
OBP% |
SLG% |
XBH/G |
RBI/G |
|
|
Utley/Howard/Burrell |
0.391 |
0.454 |
1.00 |
1.67 |
| Pena/Longoria/Crawford |
0.377 |
0.589 |
1.45 |
2.27 |
It’s pretty clear that the Rays hitters have been playing better so far in the playoffs, but lets be serious, it’s also clear that the Phillies trio has the potential to explode this series. They were clearly the better group in the regular season and have struggled in the playoffs, particularly Howard. Let’s see how they stacked up in the regular season to see if the potential for these Phillies hitters is really that much better:
|
OBP% |
SLG% |
XBH/G |
RBI/G |
|
| Utley/Howard/Burrell |
0.362 |
0.528 |
1.41 |
2.11 |
| Pena/Longoria/Crawford |
0.346 |
0.475 |
1.18 |
1.97 |
This is almost the complete opposite of the playoff numbers. So what are you betting on? Will the Rays’ middle of the order continue to rake at the rate the Phillies’ guys did during the entire regular season? Or will the Phillies guys step up and the Rays fall back their norm?
It’s a tough call, but I’m going with the Phillies on this one. I think that Pena, Longoria, Utley and Burrell will continue to produce at the same pace, but Crawford has been playing way over his head, and I think we’ll contain him a bit. Also, I have to believe that Ryan Howard will break out of his power funk this series. He showed some signs in the NLCS by only striking out twice the entire series and getting hits in 6 of his last 12 ABs. Slight edge to the Phillies.
Bottom Feeders
Jayson Werth/Pedro Feliz/Carlos Ruiz
vs.
Willy Aybar/Jason Bartlett/Dioner Navarro
This is the clutch hitting area. More often than not, it comes down to these guys getting hits at the end of games with the big guys on base. We will, like in the NLCS preview, look at their clutch hitting since the all-star break:
|
|
RBI |
BA w/RISP |
BA w/RISP and 2 out |
OPS |
|
Werth/Feliz/Ruiz |
55 |
.256 |
.231 |
.704 |
|
Aybar/Bartlett/Navarro |
61 |
.257 |
.273 |
.772 |
This is a pretty easy one. Even though Ruiz has had himself a great post-season, the Phillies bottom 3 are 2 for 27 (.074) with runners in scoring position this post-season. Meanwhile, Aybar, Bartlett and Navarro are 7 for 22 (.318) in the same situations. Edge to the Rays.
Middle Relief
Ryan Madson/J.C. Romero/Chad Durbin
vs.
Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell/Chad Bradford
The Phillies’ bullpen has clearly gotten over their late-season struggles and is right now the strongest part of the team. Ryan Madson is suddenly throwing 97mph heat, and Durbin and Romero have only given up 1 run this postseason. So the edge is going to the Phillies, but let’s look at how the Rays’ guys compare in the playoffs.
|
|
WHIP |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
ERA |
|
Madson/Romero/Durbin |
1.33 |
7.53 |
0.62 |
1.26 |
|
Wheeler/Howell/Bradford |
1.20 |
8.72 |
0.83 |
2.90 |
The Rays’ guys have actually been better at keeping people off base and can strike you out a little more, but the Phillies’ bullpen ERA is less than half of the Rays. Edge to the Phillies.
Closer
Brad Lidge
vs.
Grant Balfour/David Price
Still no blown saves after 171 regular season games. So, like the middle relief, this is a gimmie for the Phillies. But, David Price is a name that we might hear a lot about in our series. He has the best stuff on the team (think Randy Johnson) and will likely be a top Rookie of the Year candidate. Maddon showed a great deal of confidence in him by letting him get the last 4 outs in Game 7. Depending on who the Phillies have coming up, he and Balfour will likely share the closing duties. But as long as Lidge remains perfect, edge to the Phillies.
Bench
Greg Dobbs/Chris Coste/Matt Stairs
vs.
Rocco Baldelli/Cliff Floyd/Gabe Gross
The Rays are going to have a natural advantage here because as an AL team, they are built to have a DH, and therefore a deeper set of position players. However, with Stairs and Dobbs, the Phillies are built more like an AL team than most. With the Rays throwing out 3 right-handed starters, Dobbs and Stairs are going to play a big role in this series in the DH role. Once again, we’re going to look at how these guys do off the bench, in close and late situations.
|
|
RBI |
BA w/RISP |
BA w/RISP/ 2 out |
OPS in C & L |
|
Dobbs/Coste/Stairs |
55 |
.282 |
.207 |
.769 |
|
Baldelli/Floyd/Gross |
51 |
.207 |
.203 |
.792 |
The Phillies trio had more RBIs in the second half of year, despite not having the opportunity to serve as DH. Furthermore, the Rays bench was awful with runners in scoring position. I love the idea of having Dobbs in the line-up in TB; I think it could be a huge advantage for us. Edge to the Phillies.
Manager
Charlie Manuel
vs.
Joe Maddon
This is a real tough one. These are both guys that are great at handling their players and keeping their heads in the game. Most teams would have had no chance against the Red Sox in Game 7 because their confidence would have been completely shot, but they came out and played a better game. I haven’t really seen enough of the Rays this year to be completely confident in this choice, but when you take a team from the worst record in baseball to the World Series, passing the Yankees and Red Sox on the way, you are doing something right. No knock on Charlie, but edge to the Rays.
Intangibles
Here’s what the Phils have going for them in this category:
-
Facing mostly right-handed starters, with Hamels going up against their one lefty
-
The majority of columnists are picking the Rays, and the majority of columnists are usually wrong (see Dodgers vs. Phillies).
-
This is the best chance a Philly team has had to win a championship in my lifetime
-
26-10 in our last 36 games including playoffs
-
The Rays might be tired
-
The Rays might be legitimately stirred by how loud CBP will be
Here’s what the Rays have:
-
Homefield advantage
-
The William Penn curse
-
The Phillies’ horrendous play against the AL this year
-
The extended rest has hurt the Rockies and Cardinals the last two years
-
Would strangly enough, be the 5th and final AL East team to beat us in the World Series. Our 4 losses have come to the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays.
The home field advantage and layoff for the Phils pushes this category towards the Rays. Edge to the Rays.
Prediction
Once again, like in the last series, we’ve gone through 10 categories and come out at a 5-to-5 tie. This is going to be an offensive series, with both teams sporting very good, and very deep, line-ups and good, but not great, pitching. Here’s where I think the key to the series is: we have the best starting pitcher, and we have a better shutdown bullpen. We are better equipped to stop rallies than they are. I think we split in St. Pete and then take of 2 of 3 at home. In Game 6, it will be Myers vs. Shields. Shields, like he did in Game 6 against the Red Sox, can’t hold the Phillies back, and Myers does just enough to turn the city into Pandemoneum. Phillies in Six.
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Pete,
I SURE hope you are right. Your analysis sounds good to me. If it come down to pitching, we got ‘em. GO PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!
Once again, very well done Pete. I’ve only seen the Rays play a handful of times this year, so I really can’t break the world series down the way I did the NLCS.
I agree with you that we should see more offense in this series. More to the point, we are going to have to score more runs than we have in the last two rounds if we are going to win it.
I believe that our greatest advantage over the Rays lies with our bullpen. It is no small advantage either because today’s game is much more of a bullpen game. With Madson throwing the way he is in the 8th and with Lidge in the 9th, we have effectively turned every game into a 7-inning contest (If Durbin were sharp, I would say that the combination of him and Romero would further reduce it to a 6-inning contest.) Our best shot to win this series is to get out to an early lead and let our bullpen close it out.
Shutting the Rays down completely would be great, but it won’t happen. Hamels has been, and I expect will continue to be, our shut down pitcher (which makes game 1 really big for us). Myers has a good shot at shutting them down. What we really need is for every one of our starters (Moyer and Blanton) to give us a chance to win each game. As long as they can prevent the Rays from bashing 3 or 4 homeruns and jumping out to a big lead, we should be fine. Keep the game close, get their starter out of there, and turn it into a battle of the bullpens. I’m confident that we will score more off theirs than they will off ours.
Phils in 6 sounds good to me.
On an off the field note, I’m really ticked, and confused, by the angle the national media is taking to “promote” this world series. I have now seen a few articles in the last couple of days that are billing this as a matchup of losers. They talk about the Phillies having over 10,000 losses and the run of 1918-1948 in which they only had 1 winning season, among other things. On the other side, they are portraying the Rays as the lousy expansion franchise who has finally put together a winning season. Maybe I am just being overly sensitive to what I perceive to be a negative slant to the coverage. I really don’t care about the ratings, and I know the newspapers don’t either, but still, how does playing up every negative angle help in any way? It won’t attract more viewers. I wouldn’t think it would attract more readers either. This is baseball on the grandest stage there is and the two best teams will be battling it out for a championship. In light of that, the teams, the series, and the game of baseball should be celebrated instead of being dismissed or deemed not worthy of anyone’s attention.
Pete nice recap, I think the series (as with most post-season series) is going to come down to the bullpens and I like our chances.
Also I don’t anticipate it to be as high scoring as everyone else. My guess is Phils in 6, myers throws a gem after getting lit up in game 2. Utley wins MVP.
Also has anyone else noticed that “Beat the Rays” sounds a lot like “Beat LA”…I wonder if it catches on
In culo alla balena, Phillies (too vulgar to be translated…but it should be in your favor)
For what it’s worth, both Kruk and Phillips from BBTN are picking the Phils to win it.
On the other side, here’s what Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus has to say:
“For all of the detail above, I keep coming back to one point: The Rays are a much better baseball team than the Phillies are. The gap between the leagues is real, and when you adjust for it and other factors — as third-order wins do — you find that the Rays were actually 10 games better than the Phillies this season. They’ve also beaten better teams to get to the Series. Compare the rosters, and while the Phillies have their share of frontline talent, perhaps even more than the Rays have, the Rays have almost no dead spots on the roster, and are much stronger toward the bottom of the lineup, the back of the rotation, the bullpen and the bench.
Three of the last four World Series have been AL sweeps. The presence of Hamels makes that result unlikely, but even he won’t be enough to save the Phillies. Rays in six.”
Here is the link to his entire preview. I have to say that his conclusion ties into our discussion about the DH under the “Phillies win the Pennant” topic from last week. It concerns me but we have done a lot more than most experts have predicted, so I think we’re up for the challenge.
Pete, I hope you are right! I’ll be rooting like crazy But I tend to agree with the analysis below. The AL has been the strongest league by far. Hopefully, this continues to be the Phillies year and the Rays finally show their youth!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/10/21/sheehan.wspreview/index.html?eref=T1
SFW – that link was extremely depressing, thanks!
Dannie, sorry. Tough to dispute but that’s why they play the games. Don’t believe we’ve seen the best of these Phillies and I think we have seen the best of the Rays. That’s what I’m counting on.
bski, didn’t realize you and I referenced the same article.
sfw…Yeah, I guess we were both on the same thing at the same time. His analysis doesn’t sit well with me either.
I hope you are right. We have been winning without getting much from our big bats. That shows me how good a team we have, but I really think that has got to change for us to win it all.
On the other side, it is possible that the Rays either had to overextend themselves or played over their heads (with all the homeruns, for example) to get by Boston and they will feel the effects and come back to earth a bit against us.
For me, tomorrow night is absolutely huge. We can’t win the series tomorrow, but it will be awful difficult for us to pull it off if we lose game 1.
I feel the same way about the world series as I did about the NLCS. That is, we must win 3 of the 4 games started by Hamels and Myers.
Hamels has been fantastic this postseason. While I expect to get 2 wins from him, he simply must get us a win in game 1. In doing that, he will take a lot of the pressure off of Myers for game 2.
A big thing to note is that game 2 will be the first game that Myers has started on the road this postseason. That alone will be enough for him to deal with. I really don’t want to see him taking the mound with us already down 0-1.
Now that I think about it, both of Myers’ starts will be on the road. This makes it even more important for us to win both of Hamels’ starts.
The more I’m typing, the more I’m thinking that we’re going to need our bats to heat up and win a few games for us. I wish they’d start playing the games already so I could stop thinking about all this stuff.
Off topic: watching the Sixers game which is finally on TV, and, news flash, Willie Green still stinks.
Morty, don’t you feel like they’re out of sync somehow?
The game’s boring, I’m done, watching Cleveland was much more interesting, I miss last year’s team…
I think he can.
Every time Hamels lost this year, it always seemed like it was because of home runs, and that makes you worried because Tampa hit a ton of home runs this year, right? Nope – just 180, and this is with a DH. So Hamels doesn’t lose, that’s two games for the Phils right there.
I think what’s gotten into people’s heads is how prolific Tampa was at scoring runs in games 2 through 5. But they were shut out in game 1 by Matsuzaka, scored just 2 in game 6, and managed just 3 in game 7.
So it’s not really a given that Tampa’s hitters are gonna go gangbusters on the Phils’ pitching. I think that torrid 4-game stretch against Boston was just a hot stretch, and when Lester and Beckett were given second changes against them they were able to cool them off a lot. I think it’s important to think of these guys as human, that Lester and Beckett were embarrassed by their performances and were determined not to let a repeat happen. Those two guys took a scorching-hot team and slowed them down, and I’m sure Hamels and company learned something from that.
Can Hamels Win Twice..…I like your thinking. Might you have a cousin named Can Myers Win Twice? If not, how about a brother-in-law named Can Moyer and Blanton Win Once?
Seriously, you’re right about Tampa’s home run surge. I’m thinking it was just a good run of power they had against the Red Sox that, hopefully, has run it’s course.
Zack, I haven’t heard from you in a while. Did you get in on the fantasy basketball? What say you regarding the world series?
They played great in domes: Houston, Arizona and Milwaukee (kind of).
It’s a really small sample size of 10 games, but then so is the World Series.
One thing that worries me – this is the first time the Phils will be playing on turf all year.
bski, I’m the one writing those titled posts, I don’t have anything coherent to say, just odds and ends thoughts.
Zack – Good to see you back in action, sorry about the commenting issue. That’s what happens when you go on hiatus.
I am watching the game. I don’t want to overshadow the Phillies with Sixers talk on this World Series post in the comments so you can discuss Sixers on this post for now and everyone can GO VOTE FOR THE RECLINER GM.
The AFC is better than the NFC. The West is better than the East. The AL is better than the AL… And it doesn’t matter when it comes to championships.
So what if the Rays came from the better conference? I mean, I could understand giving the Rays the edge if the World Series was won by the AL team every time the past couple of years, but it wasn’t. After the Yankees’ run the winners have been the D-Backs, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Red Sox. And if I remember correctly, the AL team was favored in almost every matchup…
Yeah, that’s right. Say it with me now…That’s why they play they games!
I have said several times recently that the Phils may not be playing at the level at which we feel they are capable and they may not be winning the way we think they should be, but they are winning. They are getting enough hitting, enough pitching, enough defense, etc…and they are getting the job done. Wherever they are getting it from, the fact remains that they are getting it and they keep winning. I am not about to doubt them now.
bski, I’m scouring my mind for something original to say, but, pun intended, it seems like every base has been covered as far as World Series previews goes. I’m diving for sinking line drives here.
Zack...That’s why I can’t wait for the games to be played. I have really enjoyed this playoff run and, even though my anxiety ratchets up a couple notches every round, I plan on getting as much enjoyment out of the world series as I can. This is what we’ve been waiting for and it’s finally here. There is no higher calling for a fan, so let’s root like hell.
Last comment for the night – I can’t believe how unappreciated and disrespected Joe Blanton has been. He dominated a combustible Milwaukee lineup and was our second best starter in the Dodgers series. The game he pitches isn’t an automatic win for the Rays.
It’s gotta be how he looks. Hitters see this big porky guy on the mound who can barely stay in his uniform and looks like something inflated, and I bet it messes with their concentration and their ability to focus on preparing for the guy. Maybe they have something in their minds about how a good pitcher is supposed to look, and Blanton looks nothing like that.
I get this feeling that Negadelphia is ready to pounce all over him if he messes up, but I really hope they don’t. He’s been just as valuable as a lot of other players in helping the Phils get to the World Series.
Morty Funny, I only saw one play tonight. Lo and behold, Willie Green alertly picked off an attempted interior pass by the curly-headed European girl and was subsequently fouled en route to offensive end. What a fine beginning to a promising season!
I just want this series gets into the bullpens. I think we could take advantage of them. Keep it tight into the 7th and go from there. It’s money time for our big hitters with contributions down the bottom of the lineup.
Knew some names, but couldn’t identify a Tampa Bay Ray on the street if he fell on me – my familiarity. But any team that wins 97 in tough AL East isn’t a flash in the pan or easily dismissed in a series. A few Maddon-nodding brawls with the traditional ‘big boys’ along the way toughened their hide (I’ve been told). Ultimately, they beat the Sox (and recent winning legacy) in big end of season series with 1st place on the line
and again this week to capture pennant. These young kids are obviously battlers, as are Phillies. Pitching being paramount and a matter of inches, it’s hard to predict how things will go. I expect an entertaining 6 or 7 game series with Phillies prevailing, unless the Rays do.
Joe Maddon over Charlie Manuel?? Lets see how Maddon can manage with National League rules. He doesn’t have to make decisions like when to hit for the pitcher and what spots to put him in, where to make the double switch etc… It is less managing you just put a lineup out there and see what happens on any given day.
Plus he is from Hazleton and I went to school at PSU Hazleton for two years. That place is a complete and utter dump. I can’t believe someone from there actually has a job other than a manager of Wendy’s.
T.O. – HAHA, I went to King’s College in Wilkes-Barre so there were tons of Hazleton people at my school. The town itself I wouldn’t want to live in, but I know some good people from there.
Any region which produces two fine beers like Gibbons and Stegmaier at such an affordable price should be applauded. ‘Tis not easy to serve the Commonwealth with such flavor.
Dannie – HAHA that is funny. Yea I have met a few people from there that were cool, but overall it is a white trash kind of town. I couldn’t F’in believe that he was from Hazleton when I read it in the paper.
I can’t believe how selfish you Philly fans are being. The Rays have NEVER won a title in their franchise history, and you guys have. Their fans have been waiting for years for this day. The gentlemanly thing to do would be to roll over and hand them the series.
Hamels is a near certain lock to win 2 games in this series. Which is why I love the Phillies in 5 or 6 games.
I desparately want Myers to pitch either game 3 or game 5 here in Philly so we can take advantage of his bat. That would be a huge advantage over the TB pitcher never getting BP since probably high school (althought in TB’s case that would only be a year or two ago!)
Blanton should pitch game 2, cause the guy doesn’t even bother to attempt to swing. He is a joke at the plate. Give me Myers in Game 3 and Game 7 if necessary.
That sets us up for
Hamels game 1 win
Myers game 3 win
Hamels game 5 win
and I’m sure we can win one of these
Blanton game 2, Moyers game 4, Blanton game 6, Myers 7
Come on Charlie, change up the pitching schedule!!
Pete, hows does your brain work anyway. The Phillies lost to 4 of the 5 AL East teams? Dude that is freaky, I don’t know how you thought of that.
Here’s my blueprint to victory: win both Hamels’ starts, 1/2 from Myers’, and 1/3 from Blanton/Moyer’s. Simple, no?
As for the Sixers game, I didn’t watch all that much, but yes, Zack, they did seem out of sync. I attribute that to this being the preseason, and Mo was basically throwing lineups at the wall. Lou, Rush and Green in the game at the same time for example. Speights looked good. He had one phenominal offensive board, put back fighting through 2 defenders, and 1.
What an architect! Give that man an angled table and a T-Square.
Morty Hamels has never pitched in funky Trop Field with 40 plus and world watching … could get rocked (not likely), could pitch a perfect game (less likely). His 2 aren’t automatic; counting chickens before the hatching. Seems as though many have forgotten his late July string of games, whereupon he didn’t resemble Steve “The Sphinx” Carlton in prime. Hamels is the ’Ace’, but a quite beatable ‘Ace’ at this juncture in career (gave up his share of gopher balls this season, as challenging pitchers will; ERA - 3 plus).
jjg – I think you are selling Hamels a little short. I agree completely that he did not pitch great down the stretch, but he’s been the been pitcher of any team in the playoffs.
his 2 aren’t locks, but I’m expecting 7-8 IP, 1-2 ER out of him.
Kazmir has never pitched with the world watching either, I think he’s more likely to get spooked, especially since his control isn’t nearly as good as Hamels.
Another thing in Hamels favor? The vast majority of these hitters have never seen his changeup. IF he’s throwing it well, it will be tough to hit.
Pete Control (and self-control) will be a big issue tonight. Hamels has lived up to billing so far in playoffs, but any pitcher in tonight’s situation will hyperventilate some or he’s not human. Reining in nerves at start will be important. In packed, clamorous stadium, team showing more patience at plate should gain advantage; ump’s ‘zone’ will factor too. My wariness comes from Rays’ having beaten whomever-came-along, when it counted. Don’t know much about Kasmir but Phils, when on their game, can get to anybody. When he’s right, Hamels’ change-up is a wicked ‘out’ pitch. By stats, it’s Hamels over Kasmir. But what about the week’s delay. Is the edge lost there?
Kazmir has really, really good stuff, but can be wild. kind of like a good Oliver Perez.
i think the layoff will not affect Hamels, but you have to be worried about it affecting our hitters, especially is Kazmir is on.
Kazmir: 70 walks (4.13 per 9) and 123 hits (7.27 per 9) in 152.1 IP in regular season. 8 walks (4.59 per 9) and 16 hits (9.38 per 9) in 15.2 in post
Hamels: 53 walks (2.10 per 9) and 193 hits (7.64 per 9) in 227.1 IP in regular season. 6 walks (2.45 per 9) and 13 hits (5.32 per 9) in 22 IP in post
That SI article stinks. Completely one sided from an AL perspective. Also you know he isn’t a big Phils fan as he referred to JA Happ as James. Any Phils fan knows we don’t use the name James round these parts.
It will be a tough series regardless of what the so called “experts” say. I am hoping the aggressive inexperience of the Rays bats will work in the Phils favor. With Hamels and Moyer using their respective off speed stuff, hopefully they can keep the Rays off balance.
The key to the series in my opinion is the Phillies offense. I don’t think 3 or 4 runs is going to get it done here. We need all the bats to come alive and really strike when the iron is hot. When we have runners in scoring position, we need to capitalize.
The Rays certainly have a young scrappy team that is hungry for the spotlight, but we have a slightly older, more experienced, hungrier team and a city that is ready to kill someone for a championship. Phils in 7. LET’S GO PHILS!!!
Nice condensed look at tonight’s starting arms. Thanks, Pete.
Dont forget how hot the Dodgers hitters were after the Cubs series. While Manny was very impressive, the rest of the team was effectivly shut down. Except Game 3 of course when Moyer threw them beachballs. I look for more of the same this series. Phillies in 5, clinch Monday in Philly with Cole on the mound!
Kevin: I expect Moyer to perform better against a lineup of young hitters who have never faced him before.
jjg: builders never want to follow the architect’s plans! And, sadly, T-squares are long gone, as are blueprints actually.
I agree Morty, I think Moyer will pitch better against the Rays. The young, agressive hitters are what Moyer usually thives against. I think they win games 1,3,4,5. I meant more of the same in that their hitters will be neutralized, not Moyer getting rocked.