July 30, 2014

Would you make this trade for Roy Halladay?

The more I read about Halladay, the more I’m coming to a couple conclusions.

  • Kyle Drabek will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
  • Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor will absolutely need to be involved in the deal
  • 2 more above average prospects, and 1 average prospect, will likely need to be involved in the deal

Bottom line? It’s going to take a lot more than we have been discussing here. The Phillies don’t have a Matt Wieters, David Price, Evan Longoria “can’t miss” type prospects to sweeten the deal, so it’s going to have to be done with quantity. You also have to remember that we look at our prospects through rose colored glasses sometimes and other teams GM’s don’t, and they are what matter. My original hope of Carrasco, Brown and Marson is not going to be enough.

So here is the question… do you, if you were Ruben Amaro Jr., make the following trade:

Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Johan Flande

Vote it up – I’m really curious to see what people do here…

note: Let’s operate under the assumption that the Phillies will not re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season because there is a less than 50% chance of that happening.

Would you trade Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Johan Flande for Roy Halladay?

View Results

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Comments

  1. Jeff says:

    I agree that it’s going to take a load of prospects to land Halladay, but I think you are wrong on two accounts. First of all, the package will most likely be Drabek, Taylor (closer to being ready then brown) Carlos, Donald and marson (the Jays need a catcher desperately). Secondly, we can insist that he sign an extension as part of the deal. This would be a deal breaker for me. A 3 year extension at market price. This locks him up thru 2013 and removes alot of teh hurt of trading Drabek

  2. Pete says:

    Jeff -

    Taylor / Brown just depends on who their scouts like, and no one except them will know that.

    Your proposal would be more draining to our system with the addition of Marson.

    Certainly getting Halladay extended would change the situation considerably, but word is he wants 5 years, $100 million, and I just don’t see the Phillies doing that.

  3. Jeff says:

    As the saying goes, when negotiating, start high and come down. I think he might go for 3 years at $60 million. It’s amazing what the prospect of 3-5 WS rings will do to a veterans desires. If you dn’t believe me, see his comments on Jay’s site about what he wants from teh game at this point. Also read what Iverson has to say about his career possibilities at this point and what he’s willing to do just to win a ring

  4. Rick says:

    I still think that the Jays are going to also ask for JA Happ if there is a deal.  They alrady have minor league pitchers in their starting rotation that should not be up in the bigs.  I am guessing that they are going to want at least one MLB ready pitcher in the deal.  They can’t trade Halladay can just bring up an other minor league pitcher. 

  5. Richie says:

    I agree with you Pete, that looks like what we would need to get him in here, but personally I would not do it. now if you told me we would have him for a 3 yr extension beyond 2010 then I do it. Also, if you were to take drabek out and replace him with Happ then I would do it or take Carrasco out and replace him with Savery then I do it. I need Drabek and/or Carrasco for beyond 2010 because if he leaves we are empty for years to come.

  6. Pete says:

    here is a quote from some one in the St. Louis organization…

    “Asked about the price tag for Halladay, a club source said: ‘Give Ricciardi all our minor-league rosters and let him circle any 5 names.’”"
  7. Mark says:

    One of my friends was reading through the comments section of the yahoo sports rumor story (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Phillies-are-considered-leaders-to-acquire-Halla?urn=mlb,175454) about the trade possibilities and he found 2 posts that claimed that a toronto radio station reported that the trade was already in place. The trade was Carlos Carrasco, Dominic Brown, Tony Bastardo and Lou Marson and possibly one reliever (carpenter/escalona/kendrick possibly). I don’t really trust the post and only considered this possible because 2 people said it

  8. Rick says:

    If that is what they are asking for then I would make the trade right now!  We get to keep Taylor and Drabek for the future and keep Happ in a rotation with Hamels and Halladay.  I am all for that.

  9. Pete says:

    make it happen Mark!

    I would def. do that trade, but would be sad to see Marson go.

    I’m for any trade that keeps up Drabek and Taylor.

  10. Jeff says:

    I, too , find this hard to believe. I understand the brown, Bastardo Marson part. I think DOnal will need to be included as teh jays are desperate for a  SS. I can’t imagine them agreeing to carlos and not drabek, but maybe we lucked out. As for the extension, I am convinced that this is doable. Hallady understands teh business aspects of the game just as much as the next guy

  11. Mark says:

    The post also said that the trade would be announced sometime in the next few days because there are a few details that still have to be worked out but who knows if it is a real possibility or not

  12. Mark says:

    ESPN Reports – Phillies offer Drabek, Carrasco, and Donald and draft pick for Halladay

    got that from http://libertybellsports.com/index.php?showtopic=549&st=25

  13. Pete says:

    ahhh – gotta love the internet.

    I’ll believe something when it’s reported!

    (not to say you shouldn’t post that stuff here, Mark)

  14. Mark says:

    haha I remember searching every possible sports site  with my friends last summer with Elton Brand 

  15. Jeff says:

    Mark, not to ruin your day, but this is baseball. you can’t trade draft picks. Either someone is pulling your leg, or your in lala land

  16. bski says:

    I just found this on mlbtraderumors.com:

    By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 9 at 2:17pm CST]

    The Blue Jays want top talent in exchange for Roy Halladay, but we heard yesterday that the Phillies have some untouchable players, perhaps Kyle Drabek. Here’s what the Cards and Mets are saying about their top prospects:

    Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch confirms that John Mozeliak will call the Blue Jays, but suggests some in the organization would not consider dealing Brett Wallace, who the Jays wanted in last year’s draft. Baseball America ranks Wallace as the 21st best prospect in baseball and the Cards’ only prospect in the top 50.
    Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Mets want to keep Jennry Mejia, Brad Holt and Ike Davis. Along with Fernando Martinez, Mejia and Holt are considered their best prospects, so it’s hard to envision a Halladay deal without them.
    Three Phillies prospects join Drabek in BA’s top 50: Dominic Brown (17), Michael Taylor (23), and Jason Knapp.
    The Rangers and Giants each have three prospects in the top 50, the Red Sox have a pair and the Yankees have one.  

    Reading this has me hoping that Halladay’s price will come down.  I mean, every team will have their untouchable(s) and I would think that the teams with fewer top prospects would be that much more reluctant to part with them.  Hopefully Ricciardi asking for the moon will scare some teams off and whittle down the number of suitors. 

    We seem to be in about the best position of anyone——we’re the only team on the list with 4 top-50 prospects, we can take on his salary, he would apparently waive his no-trade clause to come here, we are not in the same division as the Jays, etc—— to make a serious run at Halladay.  That said, I voted no to your proposal, Pete.  I think I’d make the deal, and that the organization could weather it, if we could make it happen with either a small quantity (2) of high quality prospects, or a larger quantity (5) of lower quality prospects.  I don’t think we should surrender both in this deal, especially considering we will most likely end up with just 1+ years of Halladay.

  17. Mark says:

    I didn’t think the second one was real and I don’t think the first one is either I only considered it because 2 people said it

  18. Mark says:

    Why is everybody always hating on the Phillies Farm System? It seems very solid right now

  19. bski says:

    Geez, I missed a lot while I was typing my last post.  I’m all for that proposal in #7.

  20. Mark says:

    Would you rather give up Happ in a trade to get Halladay or sign Pedro

  21. Richie says:

    report from the Dominican Republic that the Phillies have reached an agreement with Martinez for $4 million.

    This was on Todd Zolecki’s blog, Amaro declined to comment, but wouldn’t he deny the report if it wasn’t true?

  22. Mark says:

    If thats true (I can’t read spanish) then that means we most likely aren’t getting Halladay right? Or could this mean we trade Happ now that we have another starter to fill in for him?

  23. Pete says:

    I think we are going for the rare “more comments than votes on the poll” post here…

    I would certainly hope we didn’t give Pedro $4 mill for a half season. I’m curious to see if he can help us (he looked decent in the WBC), but considering he will probably get hurt and had an ERA over 5 last year, I wouldn’t give him more than an incentive laden deal starting at $1 mill
  24. Richie says:

    Maybe by bringing him in for a half season and not a whole he will be rejuvenated and stay fresh??

  25. Mark says:

    So the rotation is now Hamels, Moyer, Blanton, Happ, Lopez (maybe hurt)/Pedro?

  26. Tim says:

    I voted no as well.  I could part with Drabek if we kept Brown and Taylor, but I can’t see letting Drabek AND one of the two go.  That would be too big of a risk say if the guy gets hurt. 

    And if we do make this trade I hope we fully intend on adding an arm like Sherrill to our bullpen.  No point in giving up our prospects if the bullpen will blow his games.  I don’t think Eyre and Condrey getting healthy is going to save us. 

    And I say NOOO on Pedro.  What can he possibly bring to the table that Bastardo, Lopez, and Carpenter can’t?  I agree with Pete unless the contract is totally incentive driven.
    I know its off topic but can we please get rid of Bruntlett, Bako, and Taschner already?  We brought Bako up to be the backup catcher so Coste could be a pinch hitter right?  I dont understand why Bruntlett is still our first RH option off the bench.

  27. JD says:

    I’m with Jeff on this – no matter what they are asking for, I wouldn’t do it with out an extention!! 

    If the Pedro thing goes through, it will be weird for me.  I didn’t like him his whole career, so I can’t see me liking him even if he’s a Philly!  Especially since he played for the Mutts.

  28. bski says:

    “could this mean we trade Happ now that we have another starter to fill in for him?”…………That’s an interesting thought, Mark.

    Now we’re all wondering if this report on Pedro——I agree that $4 million seems like a bit much unless it is an incentive-laden contract—— is accurate and, if so, what it will mean for us.

  29. Pete says:

    the only way i could see the $4 mill number being right is if he’s signing a $4 mill year long contract, pro-rated to $2 million for half a season?

    Just for fun…
    1. Roy Halladay
    2. Cole Hamels
    3. Joe Blanton
    4. Jamie Moyer
    5. Pedro Martinez
    THAT would be a strange, strange rotation…
  30. bski says:

    According to the latest from Zolecki, via twitter, Pedro has informed the AP that his agent is currently negotiating with the Phils.

  31. Rob C says:

    Is it to early to include Pedro in the deal for Halladay?

  32. jurnee16 says:

    I voted yes on the poll but I am almost 50/50 because that is a lot to give up for only a year and a half of Halladay…I would feel a lot better about the whole situation if I had faith in the Phillies to sign Halladay to a long term deal…hopefully the Pedro signing does mean they are willing to include Happ in a Halladay deal or that would be great if there is some truth to that rumor that Mark saw….

  33. bski says:

    One more update on Pedro.  Jon Heyman spoke with Pedro’s agent and was told that Pedro will make a decision by Sunday

  34. bski says:

    Yet one more update on Pedro, from espn.com

    Here is the interesting part:

    The Phillies have asked Martinez to throw for them a second time, to see how his arm responds, a source told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Martinez initially balked at the idea, the source said, feeling the Phillies had enough information to make a decision from his simulated game Tuesday.
    Martinez has since agreed to work out again, at 1 p.m. Friday at the Phillies complex in the Dominican Republic, a source told ESPNdeportes.com. If it goes well, the source said, Martinez would travel to Philadelphia on Monday.
    If the Phillies conclude a deal with Martinez, it will not keep them from continuing conversations with the Blue Jays about Roy Halladay, National League sources told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney.

  35. Jeff says:

    Yeah, I’d make it.  With some trepidation.  At least the get to keep Taylor.

  36. Drolz says:

    “Trepidation” is the right word. Of our three most exciting prospects (obviously, Drabek, Taylor and Brown) I’d reluctantly be willing to create a package around one of them. If Toronto insisted on at least two of them, I’d say thanks but no thanks.

    Another thing is, I’m trying to find precedents where deals like this actually worked. Most recently we have CC Sabathia making a pit stop in Milwaukee and Johan Santana toiling in New York. And over the years the Yankees have acquired some great pitching but it’s been a while since they won a World Series.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but the only recent example I can think of where a huge trade for an ace paid off was when Arizona got Schilling from us. Schilling teamed up with Randy Johnson to win a championship (hmmm, tempting to think that Halladay and Hamels could pull off the same thing). But the difference is, Arizona didn’t give us anyone that was on the level of a Drabek, Taylor, or Brown. They sent us Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, Nelson Figuroa and Travesty. Uh, Travis Lee.

    I still say go for it (within reason) with Halladay. At the same time it would be a deal where I’d second-guess it over and over until it resulted in another championship or two. I’m sure the next few weeks will be Amaro on Advil while he tries to sort this out :)

  37. Pete says:

    drolz -

    funny you bring that up – I’m doing a post on pretty much exactly what you just said…. looking at the track record of these kinds of deals. It’s very hit or miss. should be up this weekend or early next week.
    I believe Padilla was considered a prospect of Drabek caliber.
  38. Jeff S. says:

    No. No.  Padilla was never considered a prospect of Drabek’s caliber.  Far from it.  In fact, I remember at the time that some thought Figueroa to be the better prospect.

    If the deal is to be made, the Phillies almost certainly will have to give up two of the three:  Drabek and Taylor or Brown.  Even if Happ is included, I can’t see Toronto asking for less.  If I knew the Phillies could sign Halladay to a two-year extension, I’d feel a lot more comfortable with the deal.  Otherwise,  I just don’t know.  Drabek is the one I don’t want to give up.  I could live with anyone else.

  39. Pete says:

    for some reason I thought Padilla was more highly thought of, but looking back at articles, it seems people thought he would be a closer for us.

    Jayson Werth is an all-star! Replacing Beltran, and meaning our entire outfield is in the all-star game!
  40. jurnee16 says:

    Rob Charry just said on WIP that the Phils designated Chris Coste for assignment and the Astros claimed him off waivers…this pisses me off because I loved Coste thought he was just as effective at the plate as either Bako or Mayberry….

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2009449233_apbbnastroscosteclaimed.html

  41. jjg says:

    Yes.  A bird to hand an immaculate ball to is worth 5 players in the bush leagues.  What percentage of that package will match the best projections of their talents or Halladay’s supreme ML production?  Odds are against the rosy pictures of  minor leaguers.  The competitive road is hard, life happens and the limitations are limitless regarding maxing out.  Go for the Blue Jay while championships are in season.    

  42. bert Vanular says:

    Its not enough  for the best pitche rin baseball. Prospects are only prospects  ..not worth anything untill they actually prove their value. Throw in chase Utley and Blue jays might look at it

  43. Jeff says:

    Bert,
    Like so many “Geniuses” before you, I will refer you to the words of the Toronto GM who clearly stated that they wasnted young, CHEAP prospetct in a trade for halladay. While you, I and everyone else may find this strange, that is what the seller wants.  Deal with it. No one on the current 25 man roster, with the possible exception of Happ, is going to be involved in this trade, if it happens

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