Update, 4:21pm Wednesday:
It’s done, my full analysis of the deal can be found here.
Update, 10:46am Tuesday:
Buster Olney is reporting that the contract extension between the Phils and Roy Halladay had been agreed one and that his is taking his physical this morning. ~ ESPN
Update, 8:46am Tuesday:
The most recent update doesn’t change much about what I had last night. BUT, it seems like we will be getting more from Seattle for Lee, potentially above average pitching prospect Juan Ramirez.
If this is true, Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez for Drabek, Taylor and d’Arnaud (the trade if you remove the pitchers) really isn’t that bad a deal. Drabek is a slightly better prospect that Aumont and Ramirez, but not by much. Considering the other end of the deal (Halladay for 4 years vs. Lee for 1) is definitely in our favor, I still think this is a good move.
I have an all-day meeting, so I likely won’t be able to contribute much today. I’ll ask Dannie to put up any major updates.
Update, 9:49pm Monday
So, if you believe everything you read on the internet, the Phillies are about to trade Cliff Lee, Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud, JA Happ and Joe Blanton for Roy Halladay, Phillipe Aumont, Brandon Morrow, Bob Gibson and Satchel Paige. Good times all around.
Here is the most recent update from Jayson Stark, who is usually correct when it comes to the Phillies.
He is reporting this is not a 3-team trade, but rather 2 separate trades. And the result for the Phillies would be as follows:
Phillies trade: LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, C Travis d’Arnaud
Phillies recieve: RHP Roy Halladay, RHP Phillipe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies
Halladay would then sign a 3 year, $60 million extension with vesting options for future years.
This deal would not be as much of a slam dunk as the original report, but I still think it is positive for the Phillies. It seems as though they are simply replacing Drabek and Taylor with younger players with similar upside and adding d’Arnaud to get the deal done. Taylor is not a big deal to lose, considering our outfield is currently full and our top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be ready once Werth or Ibanez is done. Drabek will ruffle some feathers, but Aumont seems like a similar pitcher, though he hasn’t been starting much in the minors for Seattle.
Here is what I could dig up on Aumont and Gillies, if they are the guys
- Baseball America ranked Aumont as the 5th best prospect in the California League, and Gillies as the 13th best.
- MLB.com ranked Aumont as the 33rd best prospect in baseball in 2008 and have his upside as a “top of the rotation ace.”
- Gillies played in the Futures Game at the All Star game
Original Post, Posted 4:25pm Monday,
So I guess this was the worst possible day that I could have an all-day meeting at work huh?
Jon Heyman of CNNSI is reporting that the Phillies have agreed to a deal to send Cliff Lee to the Mariners and receive Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. He is not reporting what prospects changed hands. Update (4:35pm): Heyman has backed off saying Lee is definitely involved, saying that part hasn’t been confirmed.
He is also reporting that the deal includes an extension for Halladay.
It’s going to take me a little bit to digest this, as it’s one of the most ridiculous moves I’ve ever seen by any team, in any sport. Ridiculous not meaning good or bad, just well…ridiculous.
At first look, I like the deal a lot. And here’s why:
- We (likely) just locked in a top-5 pitcher in baseball for the next several years. We all wanted this to happen whether it was Lee or Halladay.
- We traded away a pitcher that would have likely commanded more years and more money when he hit the market. We met with Lee’s agent at the Winter Meetings and my guess is he told us Lee wanted a Sabathia-type deal (Lee has referenced Sabathia’s deal as the reason he wouldn’t sign an extension before hitting the open market). We realized we wouldn’t be able to sign him, so we traded for an Ace we could.
- I believe Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee. More on this in another post (note: It’s possible I will convince myself otherwise while researching that post).
- We were Halladay’s first choice. I think there is something to a player being comfortable and wanting to prove his worth to a team.
- Talk about outside-the-box thinking. Ruben deserves credit for thinking up something most GM’s wouldn’t have dreamed of.
The bottom line is this: The Phillies didn’t think they could re-sign Lee. They wanted to land Halladay or Lee long term, but doing that in 2010 free agency means dancing with the Yankees and Red Sox and you could wind up with nothing by draft picks for Lee. They simply couldn’t add the payroll for Halladay and didn’t want to lose prospects. Now? We have an ace locked up for several years, a top-5 farm system and only a slightly higher payroll.
A shorter version of the bottom line: If we didn’t give up major prospects (update 4:51pm: Heyman saying that we DID include prospects, we don’t know which yet. ALSO – he is now saying we will be GETTING prospects from Seattle), we essentially traded Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Knapp and Jason Donald for a brilliant half-year from Lee, and then replacing him with an extension-signed Roy Halladay.
Even shorter version: BRILLIANT!
I WILL WRITE A LONGER POST ONCE THE DETAILS COME OUT – BUT I WANTED TO GET THIS UP FOR PEOPLE TO START TALKING.